Very early in the season yet. We are 3-2. Here are some quickie things to chew on. AVG PPG SCORED AND ALLOWED: 06: scored 90.1ppg - allowed 91.7ppg. 07: scored 95.4ppg - allowed 90.4ppg SEASON OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (pts per 100 possessoins): 06: ORtg- 101.6 DRtg- 103.3 07: ORtg- 109.9 DRtg- 104.1 Most encouraging to me is the ORtg increase. Translation to winning pct and W-L record we get an estimate of ~.675. W-L projection if we stay at this ppg score/allowed, off/def efficiency pace is 55-27 W-L. By the 15 game mark that should translate to a 9-6, 10-5 record. If this holds this is definitely better than I would have expected in the early going.
I think that that 5 point differential is slightly inflated by the 20~ point win over the Mavericks. Still need imrpovement, this team.
yeah the mavs win probably helped those alot. and I do think 55 wins is a little generous... though I'm expecting anywhere from 48-53... barring injury of course. this team is a HUGE improvement over last year, no doubt.
Wrong... Tmac sucks at shooting Yao sucks at rebounding Battier sucks at defending Rafer sucks at running the offense Wells sucks at partying We are doomed
T-Mac sucks at shooting. Yao sucks at rebounding. JLIII sucks at everything. VSpan sucks at controlling the ball. Shane sucks at scoring. Rafer sucks on defence. Hayes sucks at making layups. Deke sucks at being young. Novak sucks on everything except shooting. Juwan natually sucks at everything. Bonzi sucks at being turning up for games. Bob Sura sucks at being healthy. Head sucks at being a tweener. Scott Padgett sucks at everything now. BUT. On the other hand: T-Mac is good at controlling tempo and now has improved on his FT and FG. Yao is taking a scoring role and tipping balls to his teammates. JLIII, err, is super quick. VSpan is good at energy, hustle. Shane is good at defence. Rafer actually runs an okay offense. Hayes good at rebounding. Deke is good at wagging a finger here and there. Novak Spoiler SUPERNOVAK! good at shooting. Juwan, err, doesn't bring much except that 15-foot J. Bonzi isn't playing many minutes, but he's looks nice in the few minutes he is in. Bob Sura is an energy and hustle guy. Head is good at shooting and driving to basket. Steals too. Scott Padgett is good at shooting and some rebounding.
i agree that early on this team has shown that it can look very good. now, if they can keep up that level more consistantly, they will be a great team down the stretch.
Fair enough. There's a method for doing this that assumes a probability distribution as well. More complicated though. I'll give it whirl sometime in the near future to see how it unfolds. I expect lower wins. Of course this all takes history as some indication of future outcomes. I'll re-adapt a model that can estimate using player per game stats as another means of testing different scenarios.
They are no well-oiled machine, but they are huffing and puffing their way to improvement. Presently, they don't look like a contender, but I expect them to, after about 30 to 40 games. At that point, I am hoping they are at least 25-15 and then I want a 30-12 finish.
We should have won the hornets game. Utah game we were being blown out, so we didn't have much chance there as they turned it on too late, but the hornets loss was due to horrible turnovers down the stretch.
That is a very likely assessment for this team and it wouldn't be bad based on their current schedule to win the (first 40 games @ 62% or 25 wins) and then the last 42 game @ a 70-71% winning % to finish with 55 wins. That really fits our schedule as well with all of the road games the first half and then more home games for the finish. The key is home court where the real contenders take care of business and I would like to see them go 33-8 (at least at home) and 22-19 on the road (or better). This team has to make the TC a tough place to play and the crowd is going to have to be rowdy each night.
I think there's the psychological factor to be countered. The team did not expect Utah to come in so strong(prolly the reason they got their winning streak, other teams didn't expect it either). After the comeback against the Mavs, the team played generally better, even if they weren't playing their best. It would be interesting to me to see the team play against Utah again, to see the differences in a second game between the team, to realise if they're as strong as they felt.
Sure, that blow out inflated the stats, but we also need to take into account that 4 of our 5 games were road games. Our two losses were on the road to teams with two of the best records so far. Also, 4 of our 5 games so far were part of back-to-back games with travel in between. Of course, 5 games is too small a sample size to make any definite conclusions, but given the data so far, I think we have actually been playing fairly well.
Mutombo's playin' better than many give him credit for (I know it's a long, long road....) Battier's early foul trouble was something no one saw coming although he'll iron it out cause he's too smart to keep getting 2 quick fouls. Rafer's quick hands on D and the raking, stripping play of Head is a cool surprise on the steals. Luther Head PERIOD has been money.
Wow - I can't wait for the thread - 6 games in. And then 7 games in...8, 9 , and wow, wait until we hit 12, then there's going to be some real thinking. Everyone knows that the first 10 games of the NBA usually don't mean anything unless you start 1-9 or 9-1.
van gundy's team won't peak until all star break time. i've been dissappointed but it's still early and there are lots of new guys in our rotation. hopefully we stay healthy and ride the chemistry wave throught the playoffs...
hope our team does what it should. everything should be okay as long as yao and tracy do their parts and everyone else gives them a hand. sucks that yao and tracy arent playing as well as they could be...yao rebs and tracy's efficiency..
246+ games threads this season. 1 thread for the game, 1 thread for the video, 1 thread for the 'N games into'. Oh yeah, and a dozen more threads on either ravings or hoorays.
