4-7 million PS3s by the end of the year? Other launch info?

RC Cola · Jan 17, 2006

According to Pioneer, that's how many they hear Sony might be shipping this year:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/ces2006/parsonsinterview.html

BH: What's interesting is that the gamers out there... there weren't many of them who were thinking about watching movies on their PS2s. But since the PS3 is going to be high-definition and Blu-ray capable right out of the box, it's going to be a real wildcard for the growth of this format.

AP: You're right. The PS3 is going to represent an almost overnight population explosion of Blu-ray capable players. That's not something that's really happened before. The PlayStation 2 helped, because that came well down the road after DVD launched, but it did help to get a lot of players out there. But this is something new. The PS3 is launching right at the forefront of Blu-ray Disc. If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between 4 and 7 million units could ship. And if you look at PlayStation Portable, with UMD discs, everyone is shocked at how many titles have shipped for that platform. And they're selling as well or better than the game software. So I think Sony has proven that they can drive a new video format like this with their gaming platforms.
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There's a bunch of interesting info in there, mostly about Blu-ray though, such as the 54Mbps bit rate for BR compared to the ~20Mbps for high-def broadcasts.

Also, while I don't necessarily agree with some of the points, I might as well post the following article anyway:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yho...o&guid={0E89A863-4CEF-4202-BF81-46FD591E51F0}

Sony's PS3 release date in question - analysts
Article layout: raw
SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) - What Sony Corp. Chief Executive Howard Stringer didn't say at the recent Consumer Electronics Show about Sony's PlayStation 3 video game console spoke volumes about the key product's timetable, analysts said.

Giving a keynote speech at the Las Vegas trade show earlier this month, Stringer provided no updates about the product's US launch.

Although Sony had a prominent location on the showroom floor at the annual convention, the company showcased televisions and portable music players, while the PlayStation 3 was tucked behind glass in the back of its booth. Sony offered only non-playable, demonstration versions of a limited number of games.

Analysts now expect the product's US launch in the second half of 2006, although Sony may get a Japanese version out during the "Spring 2006" launch window that the technology giant first predicted last year.

Any delays could make it much harder for Sony next holiday season as it races to put out its own new product to take on Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 in the market for video game players.

Sony , which has sold more than 90 mln PlayStation 2 game players since 2000, faces increased competition from Microsoft , which sold more than 24 mln units of its first Xbox version. Microsoft said it is on track to sell between 4.5 mln and 5 mln units of its new Xbox 360 by June.

And Sony faces a manufacturing challenge related to its switch to more-powerful computer chips, just as Microsoft did. Even the most optimistic analysts say Sony will wait and miss its predicted launch window to ensure it maximizes the ratio of usable chips per silicon wafer, better known as a chip's yield, before Sony begins mass production.

After touring the Sony booth at CES, analyst William Drewry of Credit Suisse First Boston wrote that "the decision as to whether to delay the PS3 launch has yet to be made and is dependent on (improving its chip yield)."

Sony has said the computing power of the PlayStation 3 will be superior to that of the Xbox 360 thanks to a new microprocessor - dubbed the "Cell" processor - jointly developed by Sony, International Business Machines and Toshiba Corp.

"We view any potential delay as being one to two months rather than six months duration," wrote Drewry.

Another analyst, Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities, said "the most likely scenario" is that PS3 will be released in Japan this summer with about 1 million units and in the US in November with 1 million units, followed by a European launch in March 2007.

Even if Sony follows a staggered launch schedule, as it did with it PlayStation Portable (PSP) device - it will likely have a smaller slate of new software titles than Microsoft during the critical 2006 holiday sales season.

The chatter about PlayStation 3 delays heated up after Sony downplayed the product at its booth and Stringer, in his high-profile speech to the US electronics industry, did the same.

Stringer elected to showcase the firm's less-expensive PlayStation Portable and its ability to let consumers access television programs and other video content on the go. Portable devices generated all the growth in video game hardware and software last year.

The theme of mobile digital content delivered over the Internet was a major one at the huge consumer show this year, with everyone from Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates to top executives from Google Inc, Yahoo Inc. and Intel Corp forging mobile-related partnerships.

While the PlayStation Portable is a fast-selling new product, its revenue contribution is just a fraction of the PlayStation console.

For his part, chief executive of Sony Computer Entertainment of America Kaz Hirai in his keynote dubbed the PS3: "a key pillar of Sony growth in 2006."

But the box will have an uphill challenge if the slate of published software gaming titles isn't up to snuff by the key 2006 holiday sales season, which is looking likely.

Hirai said that Sony had shipped 4,000 development kits for PlayStation 3 games. At the biggest game-industry conference in May 2005, developers had their hands on developmental kits for only few months.

With the latest generation of video games now taking as long as 18 months to develop and bring to market, it's likely that Sony will have fewer new software titles at the PlayStation 3 launch than the 19 games Microsoft had for the Xbox 360 launch in the U.S.

During Take-Two Interactive Software's recent fourth-quarter earnings conference call, chief financial officer Karl Winter said he believes the introduction of the PS3 will "occur near the end of our fiscal year." Take-Two's fiscal year ends Oct. 31.

Wilson, the analyst from Pacific Crest Securities, expect Sony's launch line-up in the U.S. to be similar to that of the Xbox 360, but "clearly weaker then the Xbox 360 holiday 2006 line-up."

If video game developers encounter production hiccups and would-be launch titles are pushed out, then Sony could be better suited to launch in Japan with fewer titles, another analyst said.

"You don't need to come out with 20 games for a Japan launch, whereas in the US you need about 15 to 20 games, plus a few that really stand out," said analyst Schelley Olhava of IDC.

Sony launched the PlayStation Portable in Japan in December 2004 and the US in March 2005. It wasn't until September 2005 when Europeans saw it on their shelves.

Wilson notes that industry analysts are starting to make predictions about hardware and software market share for Sony out as far as 2009, yet the company still has yet to unveil a functioning version of the hardware.

"All we've seen are (demonstration games) running on a box supposed to be the equivalent of the PS3," said Wilson. "We really have no idea."

Among issues potentially clouding the PS3 release, none looms larger than the noise surrounding next-generation DVD formats. There are two competing standards for next-generation of DVD players: HD-DVD, backed by Microsoft and Intel, among others, and Blu-Ray, backed by Sony.

While most Hollywood film studios have aligned themselves behind the new, competing formats, it's unlikely that consumers will see a tremendous amount of playable film content in 2006, says Olhava.

Sony's Stringer has maintained that the PS3 would contain a Blu-Ray player. Yet at CES, electronics powerhouses Samsung and Pioneer announced Blu-Ray players that would cost 1,000 and 1,800 usd, respectively.

Those costs won't fly among video game buyers, especially with the Xbox 360 going for as little as 300 usd for a scaled-down version. Most analysts expect the PS3 unit to be priced at 400 usd: a loss-leader for Sony, but competitive with the Xbox 360, which does not have an internal HD-DVD drive.

At CES, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates said that the Xbox 360 would be selling an external HD-DVD player.
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Edit: Forgot this:

THE EYE OF JUDGMENT (?)
GENJI2 (sequel to ps2 title)
Angel Rings (RPG)
Monster Carnival (Action RPG)
Everybody's Golf 5/Hot Shots Golf 5 (sports)
Gran Turismo Series (racing)
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Those are some new games that SCEJ just put up on their site:
http://www.playstation.jp/scej/title/list_pre.html

Possible launch titles?

Kam · Jan 17, 2006

don't care, don't care, don't care.

When amd how much.

I am going to get back in gaming.

This better not suck.

DaDakota · Jan 17, 2006

I hear it is probably not until next year here in the USA.......

All this stuff is pure speculation, but they need to hurry, don't let X-box get too much of a leg up.

DD

Davidoff · Jan 18, 2006

DaDakota said:

I hear it is probably not until next year here in the USA.......

All this stuff is pure speculation, but they need to hurry, don't let X-box get too much of a leg up.

DD
Click to expand...

Speaking of, I have been waiting to see what the PS3 can offer and was planning on holding out till the PS3 launch, but with what seems a further and further launch date I plan on getting a 360 soon, another year is just too long for me to wait.

hotballa · Jan 18, 2006

RC Cola said:

And if you look at PlayStation Portable, with UMD discs, everyone is shocked at how many titles have shipped for that platform.
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Outside of Lumines, the PSP has got to have the worst lineup in the history of gaming. Every single title on PSP outside of Lumines is not even worth taking a crap on.

oomp · Jan 18, 2006

hotballa said:

Outside of Lumines, the PSP has got to have the worst lineup in the history of gaming. Every single title on PSP outside of Lumines is not even worth taking a crap on.
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Liberty City Stories is good. Add that you can play it with your own music and it's 10x better. Mine is sitting on my desk right now.

My PS2 was our first DVD player and my PS3 will be my first Blu-ray, so I fit in with that first article.

I still expect to have a PS3 by December of this year.

brentdapmp · Jan 18, 2006

Has anyone heard when the PS3 will be available for pre-order? I assume not until they announce a solid release date. Having an xbox 360 it will be difficult to get used to that boomerang controller. Who the hell came up with these controllers for the PS3 and revolution

RC Cola · Jan 18, 2006

DaDakota said:

I hear it is probably not until next year here in the USA.......

All this stuff is pure speculation, but they need to hurry, don't let X-box get too much of a leg up.

DD
Click to expand...

Yeah, I suppose that is a possibility, but I doubt they would wait that long to release in the US. I guess if MS continues to have problems making the 360 and can't get to 4-5 million by the summer, Sony could possibly hold off a bit. Although as you said, I don't think they could afford to give the 360 that much of a headstart (including 2 holiday seasons). Considering some of the release dates for some PS3 games (MOH), the dates when Cell and RSX taped out, and how vital the PS3 is to other Blu-ray supporters (especially movie studios), I think there would be some big problems if they had to wait until 2007 to hit America...and I guess that might mean a late-07/early 08 release in Europe.

Personally, I don't think there's been any delay, and if so, it has been just a minor one. I suppose the stagger between the Japanese launch and the NA launch could be larger than I expected, although I'm not really sure why they would do that for the reasons mentioned above. And with the problems MS is still having with Japan, Sony could probably take some shipments for Japan and use them for the NA launch.

I guess we'll find out soon enough what their plans are.

hotballa said:

Outside of Lumines, the PSP has got to have the worst lineup in the history of gaming. Every single title on PSP outside of Lumines is not even worth taking a crap on.
Click to expand...

Totally disagree as do the sales charts. GTA LCS is huge here in the US and in Europe (especially the UK); it is probably the only game on the PSP that can keep up with the sales of DS games like Nintendogs, Mario Kart, and Animal Crossing. At launch, games like Ridge Racer and Wipeout were often thought of as really solid games, and games like Untold Legends and MGA weren't too bad either. SOCOM PSP and Burnout Legends seemed to do well, and as long as you're fine with "ports," the PSP had some good ones there (Madden, X-Men Legends II, Virtua Tennis, Winning Eleven, etc.). FWIW, the DS at launch and a short time after (maybe around 6 months into 2005?) had a pretty bad lineup IMO, and then all craziness started. Now, the DS is putting up PS2-type numbers, at least in Japan. It just so happens that the PSP lineup in early 2006 looks really good; may not help the PSP put up sales anywhere near the DS (especially without a price drop), but there will be some great games.

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