Assuming the Rockets make no other changes, I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts about anticipated rotations and minutes. Below are my best guesses regarding the primary 9-man rotation minutes (assuming health). Amen: 34 Bari: 31 Durant: 31 Sengun: 33 FVV: 25 -- Smart: 23 Sheppard: 28 Eason: 20 Adams or Capela: 15 — PG: FVV (25) / Smart (23) SG: Amen (20) / Sheppard (28) SF: Durant (31) / Amen (14) / Eason (3) PF: Bari (31) / Eason (17) C: Sengun (33) / Adams or Capela (15)
It's a little optimistic to think Ime "Thibs 2.0" Udoka will play Amen or KD that few minutes I think. I hope their minutes loads will go down, but I'm still expecting 35+ for Amen and 33+ for KD. I think there will be injuries almost the whole season in this backcourt, and that will be Thornton's ticket to 10 to 15 minutes per game if he translates at all (which right now I'm thinking he will). The other wild card is I think it's unlikely KD will be as healthy as he was last season, even with reduced minutes. That will result in Tari/Bari getting more run than you're projecting here. Otherwise, I think you're on the right track.
5 starters = 48 minutes each. There's no such thing as riding the hot hand, developing, subbing the bad player with Ime.
One other interesting thing to think about... with this roster, barring further moves, is there a possibility of Amen and/or Jabari getting minutes as small ball centers when Sengun is off the court? With 3-4 other guys in the backcourt (although again I expect injuries to be a thing) there may be a minutes crunch in the frontcourt.
Expecting something like FVV/Amen/JSJ/Durant/Sengun SL Smart/Adams around 6 minute mark in 1st for JSJ/Sengun Reed/Eason/JSJ in for Amen/FVV/Durant a couple minutes later. Amen/Sengun/Durant in for JSJ/Adams/Smart at start of 2nd/4th. 9 minutes left in a half, the guys that played the best play most of the minutes unless there is a bad matchup for Reed. Thinking early part of the season, the Rockets bench will absolutely be destroying other teams. Injuries may slow it down later in the season. I expect Udoka will find a way to get FVV/Smart/Amen/Durant on the court together with either Sengun or Adams even if he doesn't follow this pattern.
