We should have been rebuilding for awhile now. Instead, Jim will continue to patch things together. With Dana as GM. Damn.
My opinion is that the presence of Altuve, Hader, Alvarez, and Correa on big contracts with full no trade clauses all thru at least 2028 means they should try to be competitive until then. However, that should be second in priority to building a new wave of elite talent in the farm system to start a new competitive window in 2029. So I think their deadline strategy should be to use prospects in the upper level of the minors along with their recently graduated prospects to fill their roster holes to make the team more competitive, but keep all their prospects below AA off limits barring an insane offer. This likely prevents them from making any blockbuster trades, but they have enough resources to add an outfielder better than Taylor Trammell or Jake Meyers and a starting pitcher better than Spencer Arrighetti, Tatsuya Imai, or Cristian Javier. They should be opportunistic, if somebody comes forward with an insane offer for one of their core players, make the trade and deal with the consequences. I’d certainly be open to them trading their rental RP (Abreu, De Los Santos, Okert) for prospects if they get offered something meaningful. They will shop Pena for a prospect haul this offseason. If they think the new CBA will have a franchise player designation, they should keep Pena and trade Paredes for 1-2 really really good prospects instead. That combined with all their prospects they already have will really set them up with a very good farm system. They’re going to need a lot of luck to make the playoffs, but the talent/ceiling is certainly there and with Altuve in his twilight and Yordan in the middle of an MVP campaign, it makes sense to feed it a little. Just don’t trade prospects from the lower levels.
They are going to add hoping to win. Dana Brown is wanting pitching and/or outfielder with multiple years of control- doesn’t have to be a star either, just solid. All names I am hearing as available are already on team or in upper minors. Blubaugh and Matthews both are likely gone. They will listen on Paredes but would be difficult because they would need a separate deal to address losing him. My opinion doesn’t matter - but I would personally rebuild. I would move Walker for lower level prospects. I would move Paredes. I would dangle Brown and Pena if the market develops just right. Lambert as well if there is enough interest. Hader… everyone except Alvarez and Altuve and Brown and Pena if market isn’t right…. Then would move all of them this Winter. I would try to trade for and buy supp. picks when available. I would try to get as high in the draft as available - and all the money saved on moving older players, I would put into scouting and player development. Crane will never agree to that at this point though- so all we can do is hope Brown doesn’t feel the pressure from Crane and grossly over pay for someone that Crane wants. Go poach some of the Padres scouts… the Brewers international scouts….
I'm okay with them trading for players they can possibly flip in the off season or next year with value. But I agree, if that ain't there then we should not be buying.
How would you feel about moving Arrighetti/Pecko/Neyens for Gausman and then moving Blubaugh/Mathews/Meyers/Dezenzo for Lee?
We could seriously tank for less than half a season , Still have yordan to watch . We could come back next year with a revamped rotation . Granted I like walker and pena . Pena makes sense to trade because you probably can't keep him long term and you can get a lot for him. Walker is having a bounce back year , his defense looks good and he's affordable next year (if.a bit expensive) . You are right ,.depends on the price . I do like Matthews and it's also hard to believe that now is the time to sell . Hope for a hot streak ? There's actually something to Jake meyers being better when he is rested more . Trammell and Matthews not ideal CF right now . Wade can hit . But him or yordan in LF isn't super appealing . I'm kinda saying we should stand fairly pat. Flipping abreu for a better reliever would be awesome . Getting rid of jacked money too . If the dream pitcher becomes available I just think the price will be too high. Or maybe Dana can use the fact that teams are often reluctant to pull the trigger to his advantage
The market is such that selling Pena and Brown(if he could pitch couple good ones now and flash his real level/value again) and maybe Walker (if somebody takes money 100%) could serve as buying if Dana gets lucky with returns. Being lucky in this case I mean some of that young talent coming back getting hot in the short end run of the season. We would be better ofcourse for the future by selling. What keeps me saying "sell" is that we need to trade "high" something to reboot this team and we have so few games left that buying for those few games with Espada at helm feel like wasting resources. Buying like contender(getting roster better at all cost) when we all know that Astros are one small Yordan hand injury away from season being done.
Team isn't good and is in the "mediocre team hoping to get lucky group". Frankly that may be optimistic given we've been outscored in every month and have the run differential of an outright bad team. The barrier for contention has never been lower and we could retool back to being a mediocre team looking to get lucky very quickly, and could do so without the shorted time frame this one has. The myth that a rebuild has to take 4 or 5 years is stupid, particularly if you a willing to open the free agent wallet to supplement.
Show me the math. What are the salaries for Gausman and Lee for 2026? How many years of control do they have at what price? How much salary can the Astros take on and remain below the 2026 Tax Threshold of $244 million?
Semi Sellers. If a team calls about Walker they should most definitely listen. I compare this team to the 2006 team. Not terrible but not close to competing for a title.
I would voted both if there was an option. The biggest constraint is the $244 million tax threshold. There is not a lot of wiggle room to stay under the tax. The Astros could create some more wiggle room by moving some big non-performant contracts like those of Abreu and Javier. For the other team to make that trade, the Astros would have to add high value prospects. Thus, to create cap space the Astros would to lose prospects that they want to keep ... and ... the team would not be better if there is not another trade to land a difference maker for the 2026 playoff run. Without a significant reduction in 2026 salaries, the Astros would be limited to finding a difference maker who has a low salary. This likely describes a player at the beginning of his MLB career who is greatly over-performing his contract. This is exactly the type of player that teams are very reluctant to trade, so the Astros would have give up a significant prospect haul. And the Astros need two of these difference makers, one starting pitcher and one OF. Even if the Astros do land two quality MLB players, the odds may still be against them to make the playoffs. The Astros will need Lambert to continue pitching well. They will need the backend of their rotation (Imai, Arrighetti, Pecko) to keep them in most games. They will need their big sticks (Yordan, Paredes, Walker, Altuve) to be healthy and produce. All in all, they need to be lucky in finding a trade partner and in playing clutch in the playoff stretch. I would not surprised if the Astros are also sellers at the trade deadline. They have players on the 40 man roster, who may not be part of their future plans but other teams may want. Players like AJ Blubaugh, Mike Burrows, Enyel De Los Santos, Steven Okert , Nate Pearson, Bennett Sousa, Kai-Wei Teng, Logan VanWey, Shay Whitcomb, and all OFs not named Cam Smith or LaMonte Wade Jr. None of these players would bring back a Top 100 Prospect, but maybe a lower minor league lottery ticket.
A rebuild really depends on what a team has at the start of the rebuild, along with how a team executes the rebuild. Free agent wallet helps before the rebuild (not trading many prospects to supplement team) and at the tail end to get a team to the ceiling. That said, if the floor is approved anything close to the MLB's CBA proposal, free agent wallet is going to be much less effective regarding rebuilding. I think the Astros are not in a good spot regarding rebuilding quickly. Owner unlikely willing to gut the MLB team, again. Best 3 prospects in A ball. On topic, I'd probably soft buy in that I would be trading guys like Pena and Brown for young MLB players or MLB ready players. Astros probably can get better by spreading out talent to fill holes, while another team likely wants to consolidate talent. Basically, trying to do trades like the Kyle Tucker trade, though maybe not as extreme.
I am surprised to have seen the rumors that Houston is mainly interested in controllable players. To me their situation would lean toward looking at upside overpaid rentals that they could acquire with 2nd/3rd tier prospects and young players. I completely understand staying under the tax to avoid draft pick penalties but outside of that the overages just aren’t that expensive. Regardless, as long as they don’t trade from the lower minors I don’t really care what they do. I don’t have much optimism for this season and I don’t think they can really change that even if they trade from the lower minors.
Sellers. I personally have no interest in making the playoffs only because we were less crappy than the other AL West teams. Even if we sneak our way in, we'd be outclassed by just about every other playoff team. Sure, anything can happen in sports, but we have to weigh the percentages and be realistic. We should only be buyers if we are confident in being a top 3 team (or even a top tier team), like we were blessed to be so many years during our peak dynasty years, we should do what is best for the overall organization, and strengthen it long term by selling.
I think the Astros are interested in both rentals and controllable players. It seems to me based on the names I have heard, there are certain players that the Astros believe they can "fix" and want those guys under control. The name that I have heard now at least 5 times is Reid Detmers from the Angels. The Astros asked about him last year and the Angels passed, they asked about him again this year and were told no, and then the Angels changed their GM and now the Astros are talking to the Angels again to see if they can work something out. Detmers would be under team control through 2028 and I know that he has expressed an interest in the past for an extension. If the Astros think that they can turn him into a #2-3 starter, they would probably put a lot of value on having that rotation slot filled at an affordable rate the next few seasons.
If you decide to sell, you need to trade Alvarez, and bench Altuve..... As long as they hope to catch fire, you try moves on the fringes. DD
