Houston Rockets | Game Theory Offseason Preview - Game Theory Podcast w/ Sam Vecenie

It’s a really good video to watch. They go through every scenario regarding Houston.

 

P0sted earlier 0n 0ther threads......

alm0st the same idea with sams




0r u can run it back f0r an0ther year.......................if st0ne g0t 0 st0nes

 

Big Balls Brand....

Trade the whole team for two 30+ .....and fill the rest of the void with average contracts

And keep your favorite Green player.

 

2 vet stars

y0ung c0re depth
jg--bari--reed--cam 0r 10th

vet depth
unc--tate--aquaman--br00ks--aar0n--trade f0r need

picks are reserved f0r future depth 0r flexibility

 

Listened to the whole pod--they think Fred is going to get like 3/90 or 3/100. I think that 3/90 is too much and 3/100 is a way too much. Fred has no leverage here. I really hope it's going to be like a heavily frontloaded 4/90 with only the first two years guaranteed or something. So like 30/25/20/15 with the last two as team options in case his production really craters to the point where he's not even a bench player anymore.

They think it makes sense to trade for Giannis or KD if the price is right (for KD it would have to be like Jalen + #10 and that's it). They also think it makes sense to just run it back, or if there's a young unproven player they really believe in, to overpay a bit and go get him--i.e. OKC getting SGA, Indy getting Hali.

Other notes--Sam said the FO still really believes in Reed and values him highly. He loves Amen but he's not sure if he's going to be a #1 option, but can see making the case for that. Does think he will be an All-NBA player. Isn't sure Sengun can be the #1 option on a contending team. IS sure Jalen won't be.

Both of them gave a lot of love for what the Rockets have built and our young core.

 

see 51:44 0n viDe0 0nwarDs

 

0r at 52:48

sam says sengun amen + 10th f0r giannis

10th t0 new 0rleans f0r bucks 2 firsts

 

Good summary. They have been praising the Rockets all year. Sam really loves Amen.

I will go crazy of the Rockets lose Sengun or Amen to get Durant. Losing green and the 10th pick sound like something that is acceptable.

 

I don’t think it’s fair to mention Sam’s idea of trading Amen for Giannis without pointing out the rationale. While I don’t agree with that reasoning (he also mentioned in the pod that it’s perfectly valid to disagree with his thinking and he has been a MASSIVE Amen fan), I think it’s a fair argument:

Including Amen gives us the opportunity to keep a strong supporting cast around Giannis AND keeping almost all the liquid pick assets to improve the roster.

There is an argument to be made about keeping the deal for Giannis as small as possible.

I’m not for trading Amen at this point, but let’s not judge Sam’s idea in a vacuum without considering his rationales. It’s about 1) the opportunity costs and 2) maximizing the title window

 

I would be VERY much interested in trading for Trey Murphy III if he becomes available (very likely).

 

The main problem I have with the idea is that I think Amen may very well be as good as Giannis, or at least very close, once he reaches his peak. Different people have different views on his offensive potential though so I guess I get it.

The other issue is that I'm very concerned about the fit between Giannis and Sengun. I'm not sure I see it working out. So you may end up trading Sengun anyway in another deal. So now you've traded away one of Fred or Jalen (needed for salary matching), Amen, and Sengun. Your best players are gone, the rotation is completely different. Depending on who you get for Sengun maybe it could work out, but it's just such a drastic move from what has so far been such a cautious front office. Not sure I see it happening.

That's why I think the only way we get Giannis is if it's for Sengun + salary filler + a few draft picks. Gotta keep the roster mostly intact and have at least some draft capital left to play with.

 

I understand what Sam is saying about needing to package Amen to maintain a championship level core if we traded for Giannis. My issue is more with wasting a fourth of the video on it. I dont think Giannis is on the Rockets radar and Amen is *the guy*. Interesting that in the Finals, the best 2 players were pretty much gambles. Kinda like Giannis was. No one was sure if they could be *the guy*. Amen was an upside swing due to his age and where he came from. Giannis is a complete non starter and one of the worst "superstars" in the league due to how restricting his skillset is.

Also disagree on Jabari. I see the Rockets offering a Jalen Green like deal to him. 3 years with the 3rd being a player option which I hope he turns down. Something like 3-80. He's been horribly mismanaged on this team and it's time the Rockets brass felt that pressure. He's basically had to take the brunt for their insistence on trying to develop KPj and Jalen Green. Luckily for everyone KPj did us a favor, otherwise who knows where we'd be. Also want Fred "Rev Limiter" VanVleet gone. We have no use for him anymore. We need Amen and Reed and Jabari to become the guys and with him here he just puts a choke hold on the offense.

This F.O. seems to need people to make decisions for them. Here's to hoping they get forced to move on from Jalen and Fred this offseason.

 

The questionable fit between Giannis and Sengun was mentioned in the pod btw (that Amen fits better with Giannis than Sengun). But it kind of gets unaddressed (versus the advantages of trading Amen). So I guess that’s one big logic hole in their argument. Again, I am for keeping Amen and let it play out.

Also they pointed out that teams may have different values of players than us (e.g., Bucks may well value Sengun as highly as Amen).

 

Curious, why do you use zero for "o"? Is you keyboard broken?

 

Overall, I really enjoyed the podcast. I'm of a similar opinion that the liquid assets aren't as crucial if the Rockets keep Amen. If the Rockets get Giannis, they likely can't keep both Tari and JSJ at the extensions they suggested. I think a Sengun-JSJ package plus 3 picks would get it done.

This would leave
Adams
Giannis Tari
Brooks Cam
Amen
FVV Reed

I think Green would have to be traded to add a stretch 5. Could be Brooks instead.

 

Where did you see that it's likely? Last I heard, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones and Yves Missi were the guys they were most excited to keep. That said, i believe they have since hired a new GM.

 

I think it's more reasonable than people think as well. The Rockets reliance on multiple non-shooters is a huge hindrance. It's hard enough with 2 in Thompson and Sengun, with 3 in Thompson, Sengun and Giannis it's basically to the point where nobody has to come out past the foul line.

And yes, double big. I hear you.

Boys, double big was a COPE because the Rockets couldn't get past zones in February. Going from 2 to 3 nonshooters doesn't hurt you nearly as much as going from 1 to 2.

For all of Jalen Green's faults he's at least an average level 3 point shooter that you have to close out on - that alone makes him a better compliment to inside-only players like Giannis (or Sengun, or Thompson).

 

That is an awful trade. Stand firm Stone! Just say no! 5 years from now, Amen will have outplayed Giannis for a fraction of the price. Sengun will be close. I don't know who comes up with these trades - but as we see with the SGA/Paul George trade and a dozen other similar trades over the past 5-6 years - enough GMs like to buy past performance instead of projecting future performance. If you listen to all the off season prognosticators, every team would pay marginal free agents like fringe all-stars and fringe-all stars like all-nba players and every team would be above the second apron.

 

Yes Please. If New Orleans is dumb enough, you make that trade.