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EARLY WARNING: Jalen Green WILL NOT play well with 2 non-shooters on the floor

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Apr 1, 2025.

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  1. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Let's get this out of the way QUICKLY and right before the playoffs.

    Jalen Green will not play well with 2 non-shooters on the floor against good teams. Don't expect this. Don't wait for this. Don't complain about this. Stop expecting this.

    - Maybe you don't consider Jalen our 1A scorer so you don't think the players around him should compliment his game. That's fine. Then understand on average he will make about 34-35% of his 3's and 40-something% of his midrange jumpers. Stop expecting more than that. Expect him to make his jumpers about as often as a Ja Morant. Expect his efficiency to be like Ja Morant minus the drives and dunks. Simple as that. If Giannis Antetokounpo cannot be himself with 1 other non-shooter on the floor, I assure you Jalen can't do it with 2 non-shooters on the floor.

    - If you designate someone a 1A scorer, then you start complimentary players around them. If you wanted to make the game as hard as humanly possible on your 1A scorer, you would just replace shooters with non-shooters. Nothing else in the entirety of basketball (rebounders, passers, cutters, playmakers) could negatively impact a 1A scorer's efficiency as much as making difficult the most efficient and most important shot in basketball for them (drive to the basket for 2). When you have the 2nd most packed paint in the entire NBA, that's what you're doing. You're forcing your own 1A into a jumpshooter role, the least efficient role in basketball unless your 1A is in that 1% of elite midrange shooters. We don't have any of those.

    - Amen and Sengun in the starting lineup and double bigs off the bench is the absolute worst thing you can do for Jalen. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the worst thing for the Rockets. I get it, maybe tactically you feel that's the best thing for us to create a dog fight and hope our undersized forwards win that battle in the playoffs. But it is without question the fastest way you can tank Jalen's efficiency.

    - About 10% of the time his jumper will be wet enough to swing a game. That's called getting hot. You can't expect that. You should expect his averages. Just because someone does something 10% of the time doesn't mean they can deliver it every day. Luka is not going to put up 50 every single night and Jalen Green is not going to shoot like Damian Lillard every single night.

    - This design means we have to win with rebounds, blocks and outmuscling bigger and more experienced players. If those are our markers, then let the big men and the forwards cook. Jalen can provide decent shooting for them and his defender won't double team them.

    I won't even share my opinion here of what I think of this offense, you've heard it from me before. You can sit and nitpick about "oh no we're the 3rd worst and not the 2nd worst" or whatever. I dare you to construct a rotation and starting lineup that is less conducive to driving to the basket.

    But I'm telling you right now: stop counting on Jalen Green if your bright idea is that he should outmuscle opponents in the paint as though he's Lebron James or James Harden. Expect what you would expect if Ja Morant was only taking middies and 3's as though he's Kevin Durant.

    What you should expect is his averages: 34-35% from 3PT range. 40-45% on midrange jumpers. Almost no free throws. Will give 100% on defense. Plenty of energy. Will do whatever the coach asks.

    ADJUST YOUR EXPECTATIONS RIGHT NOW.
     
    #1 Mathloom, Apr 1, 2025
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2025
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  2. Little Bit

    Little Bit Member

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    He’s also a non-shooter. It can’t always be everyone else’s fault. Jalen got the big contract extension so it’s time for him to step up in big games. Amen is playing with the same lineup and got 20/4/5/2/2.
     
    #2 Little Bit, Apr 1, 2025
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  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Beware of April the 1st....the great jester.
     
    #3 daywalker02, Apr 1, 2025
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  4. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Member

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    "Lets get this out of the way quickly..."

    [posts wall of text that multiple people have posted before]
     
    #4 Buck Turgidson, Apr 1, 2025
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  5. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    thanks for the early heads up

    [​IMG]
     
    #5 Jontro, Apr 1, 2025
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  6. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Sure 100% I won't even argue with you whatever you believe, but just don't expect anything more from him than the exact average of his jumpers.
     
    #6 Mathloom, Apr 1, 2025
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  7. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    Welcome to my TED Talk...
     
    #7 KingCheetah, Apr 1, 2025
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  8. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I did not read the OP. Don't have time for it.

    At a minimum, it's Jalen's job to draw defenders towards the paint and hit an open guy on the 3-point line. He doesn't have to hit the shot for them. He must (1) want the ball in his hands, (2) get around the first defender, (3) draw a double or triple and then (4) dish. This is basic "star player", "closer" 101 stuff.

    And don't exaggerate the "non-shooters" on the Rockets. 35% from long range is slightly lower than average, but it isn't as if they are the Magic.
     
    #8 A_3PO, Apr 1, 2025
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  9. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Don't delude yourself with the season averages, almost half of those stats are with 4 shooters on the floor in the starting unit.

    2 non-shooters on the floor for 40+ minutes is extreme in this era. The Magic are an outlier, they are one of the worst in years and Banchero has the same TS% as Jalen as a result of it. Go ask a magic fan.

    Also you can't generalize stars. If Jalen was 6'10 250lbs that's different than being a lighting quick guard. If he were Klay Thompson it would be fine. If he were built like a tank there's an argument to be made at least.

    It's not. He's not. We have decided to build this thing around our interior presence at the expense of easier drives to the basket. That's a tactical choice.

    This is the worst tactical choice for the individual Jalen Green and who he is right now. It doesn't matter at all who you wish he was, save that for the summer.

    He will average his jumper numbers. He won't improve in the last week of the season. Practice some acceptance of the reality on the ground.

    You wanna say it means he's not a star? Sure. Just stop dreaming he will do anything out of the ordinary and start accepting the reality of who he is.
     
    #9 Mathloom, Apr 1, 2025
  10. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    Look up fvv fg% and 3fg% last five games.
    Kinda disgusting that's who u pair Jalen green with
     
    #10 DatRocketFan, Apr 1, 2025
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Amen and Sengun are the best players on the Rockets.

    If Green can't work with them, he needs to be a bench player. In the long term, I think one of Green and Sengun needs to go, as they just don't fit with Amen. Maybe both.

    From Cleaning the Glass,
    Amen and Sengun with Jalen Green
    +3.8 Net Rating

    Amen and Sengun without Jalen Green
    +27.3 Net Rating

    Including the following for context, as I think the above numbers don't portray Green accurately when asked to be a SG.
    Amen and Sengun with Jalen Green and FVV
    -3.0 Net Rating

    Amen and Sengun with Jalen Green and without FVV
    +10.0 Net Rating (this is a pretty good unit)

    Amen and Sengun without Jalen Green and with FVV
    +34.3 Net Rating (Small sample size, but one should expect these to be very good units)
     
    #11 Joe Joe, Apr 1, 2025
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2025
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  12. baubo

    baubo Member

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    The way you're putting it, the Rockets will have to trade one of Sengun/Amen/Jalen then. If so, who are you proposing the Rocket trade away?
     
    #12 baubo, Apr 1, 2025
  13. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member
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    I
    I know you weren’t talking to me, but I think it depends on the player coming back. If it’s Giannis, Sengun has to go. If it’s Ant, Jalen has to go. Amen shouldn’t be traded for anyone. Frankly we are fine as soon as Ime figures out that the long-term lineup is Amen, Jalen, Tari, Bari, and Sengun. FVV and Dillon should either be bench players or traded for other bench players.
     
    #13 Hemingway, Apr 1, 2025
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  14. cml750

    cml750 Member

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    Our whole line-up is made of of non-shooters except for the occasional games when Fred, Dillon, or Jalen get hot.
     
    #14 cml750, Apr 1, 2025
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  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Amen stays. I'd start Sengun and have Green come off the bench. I probably came off too harsh, but I'd let the players decide who plays more minutes, So far, the prioritization order should be Amen, Sengun, (big gap) and Green, IMO. I would hold off on trading one until there is a player that the Rockets want.
     
    #15 Joe Joe, Apr 1, 2025
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  16. PatBev

    PatBev Member

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    Rockets need to let Amen move to point and put another shooter on the floor whether it be FA, Tari, or Jabari

    Having FVV, Sengun, and Amen on the floor isn't enough space or shooting for Green. Also feel Amen will put more pressure on defense going downhill pulling defenders off Jalen and others
     
    #16 PatBev, Apr 1, 2025
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Long term, that might work. I doubt it as the Rockets are playing 2 non-shooters mitigating Green's offense, 2 PFs, and mitigate Amen's best asset as a PG by playing a SG that offers opposing PGs a safe haven on defense.

    Short term, Ime is right in not trying that lineup too much.

    Edit: If Green explodes as a scorer and becomes highly efficient on volume, he'll play and it will be up to Ime to work around him. I'm just skeptical of the fit unless Green becomes a Top 15 player such that overall skill outweighs fit issues.
     
    #17 Joe Joe, Apr 1, 2025
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2025
  18. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member
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    He doesn’t try it all. Remember in the off-season when the mantra was “we want to play fast”. Anyway, it is too late for this season. Ime needs help on offense and we won’t have it until the off-season. The Lakers really have a sh*t line-up, but Ime’s inability to make in-game adjustments and the refs made it impossible to win this game. Look for more in the playoffs.
     
    #18 Hemingway, Apr 1, 2025
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  19. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    lol. Don’t expect Jalen to earn his pay check. And it’s someone else’s fault. Now I’ve heard it all.

    I’m on board with Jalen and don’t think he should have been benched in the 4th last night. But I’ll be damned if I’m gonna make excuses for him.
     
    #19 Aruba77, Apr 1, 2025
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  20. baubo

    baubo Member

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    Trading Sengun for Giannis has the same 2 non-shooter issues. So that doesn't really work for Jalen. Given the fact that there are so few shooting centers in the league, practically speaking it's then a choice between Jalen and Amen.
     
    #20 baubo, Apr 1, 2025
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