The argument made on this Locked on Rockets Pod is that Ausar has a much higher ceiling as a shooter, is also stronger and has a longer wingspan than Amen, thus should be drafted higher.
Haven't had a chance to check out this podcast (currently listening to The Lager Line with basically the same topic). To be pedantic, I think they have the same wingspan, but Ausar has a 0.5" longer standing reach. Kinda odd honestly (I guess his hands were slightly bigger too, but not sure why wingspan measured the same). I also am more skeptical of him being a *much* better shooter (or having a higher ceiling). I know some are convinced, and he's certainly further ahead than Amen, but I'm not sure either is really all that great right now. Perhaps Ausar will end up better because he pretty much has to get his shot working in order to get minutes and be effective in the NBA IMO. Amen needs to improve to be top tier, but arguably he could get by without it. I do lean Amen due to the higher tier playmaking and slightly higher tier athleticism.
I disagree with the "has a much higher ceiling". How exactly does one determine ceiling on a jumpshot of twins? If one's form is better right now, does that mean the other will never be able to improve? When they were younger, Ausar was the better player. Most people now think Amen is the better player and the slightly better athlete. Ausar is considered the better defender. I've been looking for video of the off-season run Ausar had with Colin Sexton, Ant Edwards, OG Anunoby, but can't find anything good. The only thing I've seen is a YouTube Short of Ant power driving by Ausar for a layup and Ausar poking the ball away from Ant and starting a break. I'd love to have seen more video of that game. I'd take Amen over Ausar, but only because I like 6'7" players who potentially could be explosive PG's. If we're wrong, then, oh well. I also think Ausar has the potential to be the better overall player. Another way to look at it for me is can Amen be the shooter that Ausar is or at least improve? Maybe. Will Ausar ever be the playmaker/ball handler Amen is? Probably not. Amen seems like the type of player that attacks and goes downhill at the slightest opening and zips passes in. Ausar seems more like the guy that can make passes, but is more methodical and can't do the insane passes I've seen Amen do at times. In terms of overall players, I don't think they're that far apart. If Amen is considered a 10, Ausar is maybe a 9, but doesn't get the hype Amen does. That being said, they both have some warts to clean up.
Amen is proven to run the point, while Ausar has many question marks. Ausar also is not that much better than Amen in shooting, and both sucks. If we can trade up a spot for only a future first round pick, I'm all for it. If we need to attach one of our promising young guys, I would rather just take Amen at the fourth and see how coach Ime can do.
It makes you wonder why Brook Lopez was so much better than Robin. It seems like most recent NBA twins have been pretty similar players (Morris, Bridges). Even the Harrison twins were equally not good enough to make it.
I guess Ausar would play the 3 for the Rockets. I do think he's being slept on a little bit. I like him more than Cam Whitmore and about the same as Brandon Miller. With Ausar's basketball IQ, defensive potential, and intangibles, there's a world where he becomes something along the lines of Jimmy Butler and is a superstar who is sort of, more than the sum of his parts? But I think the Andre Iguodala comps people keep dropping are probably a bit closer to earth on this one. I do think Ausar is a better shooter right now than Amen. That said, it would be strange if Ausar became a good shooter and Amen was completely dysfunctional in that area, or if Ausar became truly great and Amen was below average. I don't see their mechanics as being that different, and they are identical twins, after all. It is possible that Ausar will always have the edge as a shooter, though, and that's worth noting. With all of that said, I think it's a little easier to envision Amen becoming a superstar, since his athleticism is noticeably higher and he has a true elite skill with his passing/playmaking rather than being more of a jack-of-all-trades. I also think Amen fits better on the Rockets right now, even though it's true his shooting isn't as good right now. So I'm going Amen, but I don't think it's a totally open-and-shut case.
If option 1 is trading the farm for Henderson & Option's 2 and 3 are Amen and Ausar .... I'll take option 4. Hope Brandon Miller falls to us .....
Listening to the LoR episode now, I don't know where Jackson pulled his physical measurements from (maybe some old OTE pages?). Honest mistake on his part (Jackson putting in lots of work lately!), and guess Madison didn't catch it either. But yeah ignore those numbers and realize they're almost the exact same (Ausar is ~4lbs heavier, not ~20lbs, and he has 0.5" longer standing reach with slightly bigger hands). I guess the point they were making is Ausar tries to use his strength more, which is *probably* something I'd agree with, yeah. He tends to go with that and his footwork vs Amen flat out beating/contorting around guys (but I think both need to finish through contact better, and Ausar kinda struggled at the rim with layups IIRC).
Ausar vs Eason? Ausar better passer and more potential for creating offense but eh. I dont even love Miller much because I think KPJ and Eason at SF works ok. We badly need a player that will drive the train. Personally, I am not super worried be over Amen and shooting. People just aren’t going to be able to sag off that far because he’s going to be going downhill at such a crazy elite elite level. At 6’7 with such vertical, I expect that to offset a lot of sagging as long as the players around him are shooters. He really has a tendency to put the ball in the right spot when passing. Spacing should be easy to come by and Green/Smith/Eason/KPJ(already) all project to be good catch and shoot guys.
I’m not worried about his shooting, I’m worry about his Free Throw shooting. He is a physical player and he is going to try and drive to the basket, he just needs to work on his free throws and work on his floaters. ALSO, what people forget Ime is going to do a lot of switching….most players in the league will not be able to stay in front of him. Amen needs to start on the bench and play 20+ minutes a game. He is not a player who is going to score 20 points a game, he is a player who will fill the box score….10 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 3 blocks and 3 turnovers a game…I can see him doing this every game and cover the best person on the opponent’s team. Our bench could be very athletic with Amen, KPJ, KJ, Tari and a shot blocker(Lively)….very athletic.
That’s interesting, the physical differences in identical twins. The guest on the pod got me thinking, his argument revolved around Ausar improving his 3% from 22 to 33 in one season. The thought being he could get into the 35-40 range with that sort of improvement. He also pointed out his deficit in playmaking might largely be due to Amen playing point and could therefore be improved greatly. You’re right, both are projects. I’m not completely comfortable with either at 4. I’d rather trade up or trade back.
