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In DEFENSE of Alperen Sengun - Analysis on why Sengun may already be an above average defender

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, Feb 7, 2023.

  1. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    Sengun is NOT a below average defender. Currently he is at minimum an average defender, and may already be above average. Biases and statistics will show you why.

    Biases

    There are a LOT of biases for NBA players and unfortunately the “eye test” can often deceive you. For example, Dennis Schroder is 6’2 w/ a 6’8 wingspan, extremely quick/athletic, and was “known” for his defense prior to the draft. Multiple Rockets fans on the Live Clutchfans Chat yesterday said how awesome he was at defense.

    However, Schroder is still one of the worst defenders in the league. He is ranked 191 out of 246 in overall defensive RAPTOR (definition below) this year. Schroder also has never had a positive defensive box plus/minus in any year, which is an indication of a poor defender. Game tape will show you missed rotations, high rate of gambling, and low IQ defensive plays.

    Sengun is the anti-Schroder, and the perfect Moneyball player. He is 6’9 (maybe 6’10?), 7 ft wingspan, and appears unathletic. If you don’t do a deep dive into game tape and stats, you may think he’s like Enes Kanter on defense. This is simply not the case and you’ll see why below.

    Also, once you think a player is bad on defense, it’s hard to change that perspective. After Harden’s 9 minute bad defense video clip, you can’t convince non-Rockets fans that Harden was mostly a decent defender and for a few years one of the best post defenders in the league.

    Teammate Combinations

    Jalen Green may be the worst starting guard defender in the league and KPJ isn’t that much better (KPJ may excel given a different role, but that's for a later thread). Poor defensive IQ at guard positions is very difficult to overcome even if you have 1-2 other elite defenders at different positions. Everyone else including Sengun are placed in non ideal situations.

    When Sengun plays without JG and KPJ, both individual and team defense improves dramatically. When Sengun plays with Tari and KJ, their net rating is +15.9, which is 99th percentile in the league.



    Statistics

    Defense is extremely difficult to measure and there isn’t a single stat that paints a complete picture. Defensive RAPTOR, DBPM, DWS, Block/Stl %, decrease in opponent shooting % are all small pieces of information that may tell us whether a player is good at defense. RAPTOR, developed by Nate Silver/538 is one of the best singular stats that I've found and a link is below for further explanation.

    RAPTOR = Plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

    Box Score Raptor - Defense
    • Embiid +3.6
    • Capela +3.5
    • Jarrett Allen +2.3
    • Sengun +2.2
    • Giannis +1.7
    • Mobley +1.0
    Overall Raptor - Defense
    • Embiid +4.1
    • Capela +3.0
    • Jarrett Allen +2.5
    • Giannis +2.2
    • Sengun +1.1
    • Mobley +0.6
    Defensive Box Plus/Minus - Defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league average player, translated to an average team
    • Giannis +2.4
    • Embiid +2.2
    • Mobley +1.5
    • Allen +1.2
    • Sengun +0.6
    • Capela -0.2
    Defensive Win Shares - Number of wins contributed by a player due to defense
    • Mobley +3.1 (leads league)
    • Allen +2.8
    • Giannis +2.6
    • Embiid +2.4
    • Capela +1.5
    • Sengun +1.3 (hard to increase this number when we have the lowest wins in the league)
    Block Percentage - % of opponent 2 point FG attempts by the player while they’re on the floor
    • Embiid - 4.3%
    • Capela - 3.9%
    • Mobley - 3.7%
    • Sengun - 3.6%
    • Allen - 3.3%
    • Giannis - 2.0%
    Steal Percentage - % of possessions that end in a steal while player is on the floor
    • Embiid - 1.6%
    • Sengun - 1.5%
    • Allen - 1.3%
    • Capela - 1.2%
    • Giannis 1.1%
    • Mobley 1.0%
    Best and Worst Rim Protectors - % Effect on opponent shooting % within 6 feet



    As you can see, Sengun is a better rim protector than Duren, Sabonis, Mobley, Adebayo, Embiid, and Jokic based on the effect on opponent shooting percentage.

    Summary
    - There are many biases in the NBA, which allows you think a player like Dennis Schroder is good at defense and Sengun is bad.
    - Teammates can greatly affect your ability to defend
    - Sengun compares well with above average/elite defenders in several advanced statistics
    - Sengun is at least an average defender, if not above average RIGHT NOW
     
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  2. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    He isn't a good defensive player, but at least he seems to try sometimes as opposed to our other guys.
     
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  3. Mister Beard

    Mister Beard Member

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    5 star thread and great analysis! My eye test tells me he is not a bad defender generally speaking, except in PNR switching defense.
     
  4. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Yeah, he's pretty decent, but it's all drop coverage. With today's shooting skills in the NBA that is becoming passe... If we ever get to play competitive games he'll get hunted a lot.

    Having said that, The Milwaukee Bucks won a title with Brook Lopez dropping. None of the modern "switch everything" teams like the Rockets with Tucker at C, the Raptors now, the Clips when they went away from Zubac, none of these teams can say that.

    The best case scenario for Sengun would be to figure out the dance where he shows just enough on the screen to throw-off the shooter but not enough to get cooked or blown-by. A bit like poor-man Draymond. I think he can master that with his intelligence and his good footwork.
     
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  5. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    If he was so great, why does it warrant multiple threads trying to defend/justify it? Most great defenders don't need anybody lawyering for them, it's just part of their reputation and who they are...
     
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  6. gfab-babyboi

    gfab-babyboi Contributing Member
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    Hes giving up just as much as he makes if not more because of all the 3s..... teams hunt him and folks like to play blind.

    Part of it is our guards...and having smaller players like KMJ and EG guarding bigger SFs but a large part is he doesnt want to draw fouls so hes uber passive and we been being cooked
     
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  7. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Defensive reputation is such BS! Rudy Gobert has such overrated defensive reputation, 3x DPOYs and what nots... We've all seen how with a little game-planning he gets absolutely clowned. CLOWNED! Dwight, another 3x DPOY, also hugely overrated as defensive player. Blocking a shot in the 3rd row every now and then is not all there is to good defense. Couldn't dance with the guards, couldn't do anything with shooters shooting over him...

    This is a tricky business with these defensive reputations nowadays...
     
  8. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Advanced individual defensive stats are largely meaningless. For every stat brought up, look at the rankings and you'll see horrible defensive players on good teams ranking high. You'll see great defensive players on bad defensive teams ranking low. The advanced defensive stats are heavily skewed to team performance. Lineups matter.

    Being a C is totally different defense than being any other position. The C anchors the defense in addition to guarding their man. Ben Simmons is a very good defender and his metrics looked great when the Nets tried him at C, however the metrics don't account for a team needing a defensive anchor so the team was suffering even though he was playing good man to man defense. Sengun certainly gives effort on defense and that's what makes him better than most of the team. That doesn't mean he's good at anchoring a defense. If you're average in the league, you are including all the bench players and scrubs. Tell me if he's average among starters, that's where you need to look. Tell me if those stats are projectable, do you think startign Sengun/Eason/Martin would put us in the 99th percentile of wins? Do you know every single team has such a trio that delivers magical numbers in the advanced stats for 300-400 possessions?

    There is no anchor-like presence on our team. You can see that throughout the game, Sengun or no Sengun. No one changes their mind attacking the rim, no one is being funneled to an anchor, no one's mistakes are being cleaned up, none of that stuff is happening which you would expect if you had the 15th best defensive anchor in the NBA. He's not there.

    Give the guy some time, he is progressing well towards this goal. There's no need to jump to conclusions. I'm proud of Sengun for continuously giving effort on that end and improving inch by inch. But his role as a defensive anchor is going to require months and years, not days and weeks. The good news is it's looking like he's getting there even when most of our fanbase and NBA fans thought he was Enes Kanter. I warned people against using that comparison, but it looks like they have a taste for crow.
     
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  9. AroundTheWorld

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    Because of the bias @Medicine N Music correctly points out.

    And those who have it will simply keep ignoring facts and data.
     
  10. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    No he’s not good. My eyes aren’t deceiving me on this one.

    That being said I do believe he can be the starting center on a good defensive team. He also can improve himself.

    But no… not now. Go watch the game again last night and show me what is adequate about anything he’s doing defensively. He’s a big reason with the drop back scheme that Sacramento wads having a field day from 3.

    He’s not good… but he can improve.
     
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  11. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    You genuinely lost all credibility when you brought Dwight into the convo. Anybody who actually watched Howard in Orlando knows how r****ded that statement you just made is.
     
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  12. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    he is a good defensive player its just that youre not a good basketball analyst..youre just a little man in a tinny little bubble..expand your horizons bro
     
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  13. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    to have a good eye it first requires to have a good mind and your mind is below average at best..and i know you for a long time...

     
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  14. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    lol is this my burner account or what?
    @J.R.
     
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  15. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    That’s kind of creepy sounding dude. You the weirdo who keeps going through my trash?
     
  16. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    so reading your posts is like going through your trash? hahaha

    no insults bro but your mind IS below average LOL but you do have a high ceiling so keep working on your game...if there is a hope for jalen green there is definitely a hope for you...
     
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  17. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    Show me a center that can do this!
     
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  18. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Didn’t see any Max tweets so probably not. ;)

    M&M was a proponent of drafting (or trading up) for Sengun.

    Oh! Just as I was typing a Max tweet appeared. :D
     
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  19. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    No you sounding like a creep makes me wonder what other creepy things you do outside of the garm. You’re like Buffalo Bill (it puts the lotion in the basket) but instead of stroking your Maltese it’s a Sengun bobble head.

    You should seek professional help.
     
  20. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Probably not the best time to post this considering how Sengun was helpless last night to do anything once Sabonis set a screen to free up a teammate for a 3 - which happened several times. Sengun would just be floating around in no man's land because he's too slow to switch.
     
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