Obviously this is super early so rankings will inevitably change a ton Decided to do some early work on 2023 with so much focus on 2022 for the Rockets (been scouting for a while, gonna relaunch my site soon) It’s usually harder to find/accurately gauge international prospects this early before due to less film. Incoming Frosh are often hit/miss (with team/fit often playing a large role), so many of them will drop/rise quite a bit once the season starts Years are based on what they will be next season/entering 2023 Draft. My Top-50: 1. Scoot Henderson | Guard [PG] | 6’3” 195 | G-League | Year 2 Projects as an elite downhill attacking G, like a young Derrick Rose. Has the mentality, explosiveness, shiftiness/body-control and strength to into the paint at will. Should be a P/R nightmare. Not a true setup PG, but has solid vision, and should rack up assists based off his ability to collapse defenses. Most would probably have Wembayama at 1, and I wouldn’t argue (they're like 1a/1b for me), but I’m giving Scoot the slight edge for now because I’m quite confident in him developing into a Franchise PG. His biggest question mark, his 3-ball, isn’t as worrisome to me because his form from mid-range/FT is smooth, and he chooses to attack defenses before settling for Js (small sample size on his 3% last year). I do hope he gets his 3pt %s into respectable ranges this season in G-League just to ease that concern. 2. Victor Wembayama | Big [C] | 7’3” 230 | France | International It’s hard not to put a 7’3” C (with a 7’10” wingspan) with elite rim-protection, impressive ball-skills for size and flashes of 3-point range at the top of the class. The hype for him is indeed warranted, but I do have a few concerns about his ability to generate easy buckets inside (shot 22/59 from 2PA in 13 GP in EuroLeague last year). That said, if he turns out to be a rich man’s mix of Gobert/Porzingis like I think he can, that’s still extremely valuable to any team. Plus, I think he’ll get more easy lobs/looks in the NBA off the P/R. 3. Cam Whitmore | Forward/Wing [SF] | 6’7” 225 | Villanova | Freshman I’m extremely high on Whitmore, based off his strength/frame (7’3” wingspan), athleticism, handling ability for size and overall lateral fluidity. He's a terror in transition, can easily bully smaller defenders, and also has the finesse/body control (as well as solid range/vision) to play point-forward. His biggest issue is staying under control, but I still think he’s being overlooked as one of the elite prospects. Hopefully he gets the keys to Villanova’s offense like he deserves (Jay Wright is gone, and he never played Freshman). 4. Dariq Whitehead | Wing [SF/SG] | 6’7” 205 | Duke | Freshman It's hard not to like Whitehead, who was always advanced as a scorer, shooter and decision-maker, even as a 6’4” G a few years back, but he's grown 3-4 inches since and is even listed at 6'8" now, according to some sources. He’s not a freak-athlete, but he’s solid and he has most everything else you’d look for in a modern wing. 5. Keyonte George | Wing/Guard [SG] | 6’4” 210 | Baylor | Freshman Super smooth big-bodied SG who can score easily from all 3 levels, not unlike a young EG. Like Whitehead, he's also not a freak athlete but he uses his body/strength well. 6. Dereck Lively II | Big [C] | 7’1” 215 | Duke | Freshman Would be the top C if not for Wembayama. Like Wemby, he has a great mix of size/skill/mobility, but he needs to keep adding polish/strength. 7. Anthony Black | Guard [PG] | 6’7” 195 | Arkansas | Freshman Likely to follow in the recent trend of oversized pass-first creators going Top-10 (Giddey, Dyson Daniels this year, and to a lesser extent, Cade, LaMelo). He's a stat-sheet filler, and can defend multiple positions, but his J and scoring arsenal are still coming around. 8. Nick Smith Jr. | Wing/Guard [SG] | 6’5” 185 | Arkansas | Freshman Will team with Black to form a lethal Freshman backcourt at Arkansas. A confident, advanced scorer who needs to prove what else he can do on the floor. 9. Chris Livingston | Forward/Wing [SF/PF] | 6’7” 215 | Kentucky | Freshman Strong, athletic F who’s great in transition and at the rim. Should be a valuable defender as well. Needs some perimeter polish. 10. Nikola Djurisic | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’8” 200 | Serbia | International Big time offensive weapon with score-pass ability from the point-forward spot. Has dominated U18 play, but we're yet to see how he does against higher level comp. #11-#50 and others to watch coming in next post
11. Ausar Thompson | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’7” 195 | Overtime Elite | Year 2 12. Amen Thompson | Wing/Guard [SG/PG] | 6’7” 195 | Overtime Elite | Year 2 The Thompson twins have a great combo of size, athleticism and offensive tools from the wing. It is harder to evaluate them playing on OT Elite…I will say Ausar is more of a scorer, while Amen is more of a passer. 13. Terquavion Smith | Guard [SG/PG] | 6’4” 170 | NC State | Sophomore Super quick scoring guard with big-time range. Should be one of the top scorers in nation, but needs to add weight/strength and work on playmaking. 14. Leonard Miller | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’10” 215 | G-League | Year 1 One of the best 22-eligible guys who chose to return, Miller has great fluidity/athleticism for his size, and has shown flashes of perimeter skill too (solid handle and capable set-shot from deep). Needs to add polish. 15. Amari Bailey | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’6” 190 | UCLA | Freshman Advanced lefty wing who can play on or off the ball. Will be interesting to see if he can be a primary part of UCLA or if he disappears down the rotation like Peyton Watson did last year (though Watson was far rawer than advertised). 16. Baba Miller | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’11” 215 | Florida State (Spain) | Freshman Another Miller who’s a big skilled combo-F. He’s in a good spot to develop at FSU, where they’ve put out quite a few talented Fs with size recently (J.Isaac, P.Williams, S.Barnes). 17. Nolan Hickman | Guard [PG] | 6’2” 195 | Gonzaga | Sophomore I’m predicting a breakout season with him starting at PG for Zaga. He probably won’t put up huge raw #s (not unlike Nembhard last year), but he does most things well, and has a good feel/strength for the PG spot. 18. Arterio Morris | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’4” 185 | Texas | Freshman It’ll be hard for him to shine on a UT team with too many PGs (transfer Tyrese Hunter + 13th year Senior Marcus Carr), but he has a nice mix of skill, frame and range for a Frosh G. 19. Kris Murray | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’8” 225 | Iowa | Junior Has many similarities to his brother Keegan game/frame-wise, but asking him to fill his shoes on Iowa is a lot to ask. Keegan did have a huge jump statistically this past year, but I’ll wait and see before assuming Kris does the same. 20. Caleb Love | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’4” 195 | North Carolina | Junior Really needs to improve his scoring/efficiency inside the arc, but has the physical tools/skill to do so. Showed flashes of the "good Love" during UNC’s run (and also some flashes of the bad). 21. Kel’el Ware | Big [C] | 7’0” 215 | Oregon | Freshman 22. Dillon Mitchell | Forward/Wing [SF/PF] | 6’7” 205 | Texas | Freshman 23. Matas Buzelis | Wing [SF] | 6’9” 190 | Undecided* | Freshman 24. Julian Phillips | Wing [SF] | 6’8” 185 | Tennessee | Freshman 25. Jaden Bradley | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’3” 190 | Alabama | Freshman 26. Jordan Walsh | Forward/Wing [SF/PF] | 6’7” 205 | Arkansas | Freshman 27. Hunter Sallis | Guard [SG/PG] | 6’5” 190 | Gonzaga | Sophomore 28. Terrence Arceneaux | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’6” 190 | Houston | Freshman 29. Jerace Walker | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’8” 220 | Houston | Freshman 30. Harrison Ingram | Forward [SF/PF] | 6’7” 225 | Stanford | Sophomore 31. Brandon Miller | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’9” 200 | Alabama | Freshman 32. Henri Veesaar | Big [C/PF] | 6’11” 220 | Arizona (Estonia) | Freshman 33. Ousmane N’diaye | Big/Forward [PF/C] | 6’11” 210 | Senegal | International 34. Rayan Rupert | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’6” 190 | NZ Breakers (France) | Year 1 35. Mark Mitchell | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’8” 210 | Duke | Freshman 36. Cason Wallace | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’4” 190 | Kentucky | Freshman 37. Emoni Bates | Wing [SF/SG] | 6’9” 195 | Transfer* | Sophomore 38. Adam Bona | Big [C/PF] | 6’9” 230 | UCLA | Freshman 39. Yohan Traore | Big [C/PF] | 6’10” 230 | Auburn | Freshman 40. DaRon Holmes II | Big [PF/C] | 6’10” 225 | Dayton | Sophomore 41. Tristan Vukcevic | Forward [PF] | 6’11” 205 | Serbia | International 42. Matthew Cleveland | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’7” 195 | Florida State | Sophomore 43. Marcus Sasser | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’2” 195 | Houston | Senior 44. Roko Prkacin | Forward [PF/SF] | 6’9” 215 | Croatia | International 45. Arthur Kaluma | Forward [SF/PF] | 6’7” 220 | Creighton | Sophomore 46. JJ Starling | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’4” 175 | Notre Dame | Freshman 47. Julian Strawther | Wing [SG/SF] | 6’7” 210 | Gonzaga | Junior 48. Jalen Warley | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’6” 205 | Florida State | Sophomore 49. Oscar Tshiebwe | Big [C/PF] | 6’8” 260 | Kentucky | Senior 50. Grant Sherfield | Guard [PG/SG] | 6’3” 195 | Nevada | Senior Other CBB Returnees to Watch: Bigs: Zach Edey (Purdue – Sr.), Jonas Aidoo (N’Faly Dante (Oregon – Sr.), Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Tennessee – Soph.), Efton Reid (Gonzaga – Transfer Soph.), Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma State – Jr.) Forwards: Matthew Mayer (Illinois – Transfer Sr.), Marcus Bagley (Arizona St. – Jr.) Wings: Jaime Jaquez (UCLA – Sr.), Kowacie Reeves (Florida – Soph.), Terrence Shannon Jr. (Illinois – Transfer Sr.) Guards: Tyrese Hunter (Texas – Transfer Soph.), Mike Miles (TCU – Jr.), Jeremy Roach (Duke – Sr.) Tyger Campbell (UCLA – Sr.) Highly-Touted Freshman I didn’t include (but definitely could be on this list): Tyrese Proctor (Guard – Duke), Jalen Hood-Schifino (Guard – Indiana), Vince Iwuchukwu (Big – USC), Gradey Dick (Wing – Kansas), Kyle Filipowski (Big – Duke), MJ Rice (Wing – Kansas), Skyy Clark (Guard – Illinois) Other International Prospects to keep an eye on: Sidy Cissoko (France), James Nnaji (Nigeria) ------------ I've watched film/games on all these guys listed so I'm open to Qs. I’ll happily admit if I don’t know or haven't seen enough to say
Way too early predictions Kris Murray to ball out. He and Keegan trained together and practice all the same moves. Basically a left handed version. If Keegan produces in the NBA, there will be a market for Kris. I assume he just steps into the offence in Keegans old role. Tyres Proctor - if he gets to run the point he will show plenty. 6'4 and my way too early opinion is that he is a PG in the NBA. Could be a mid teens pick in terms of talent. The Thompson twins are highly intriguing! Emoni Bates - I feel like he will either rise up the list or fall off it altogether. I'll predict rise after his transfer
Good catch, I had him around #50 overall, but I pushed him out -- forgot to put him on other CBB returnees to watch. He was pretty darn raw on O last year, which kept him off the floor, but otherwise he has a lot of similarities to fellow UK big Isaiah Jackson from the year before. They were both athletic, active, and had similar long/thin frames (Jackson was 6'10" 210, Collins is listed at 6'9" 205, but has a reported crazy 7'5" wingspan). Jackson went #22 in 2021 to the Pacers, and was low-key was very impressive for a rookie in his 36 games on a bad team -- averaging 19.8ppg/9.9rpg/3.5bpg(!) and 1.7spg per36 (8.3/4.1/1.4 per game). Neither had much range, but if Collins can settle down on O, he has similar defensive/high-motor big potential. The problem is that Oscar Tshiebwe is the returning NPOY and doesn't space the floor either, meaning that it's unlikely Collins will play much with him, and will likely be relegated to bench minutes behind him (I'm guessing incoming Frosh Chris Livingston starts at the 4). Proctor is probably the biggest name I left off my big board, but it's hard to call which Frosh are ready and which ones are not -- and I hadn't seen much of Proctor coming from overseas so I left him off for the time being. The Thompson twins are getting a lot of hype, but it's hard to tell if the glossy mixtapes are indicative of their actual development. They're also the age of college Sophomores (will be 20.5 come the '23 Draft), so they're a good 1-1.5 years older than the other top Wing/Forwards (Whitmore, Whitehead, George, Smith Jr, Djurisic, Bailey etc.) in this class. I won't deny I haven't watched much of Overtime Elite, but I'm gonna catch some full games as soon as I can. And agreed on Kris Murray's stock being closely linked to Keegan's success. It's a lot to ask him to fill Keegan's production, but I do think he'll have a good statistical jump as well -- his per-minute production was excellent last year, and seems to be exactly where Keegan was the year prior. Only thing is, they're both almost 22 right now, and Keegan had to have a huge year to prove how NBA-ready he was (to justify taking him Top-5 at his age). Kris will be almost 23 for next year's Draft, and needs to do the same.
He does remind me of Giddey as well as Dyson Daniels, but I think he's more of a natural PG than Daniels and quicker than Giddey (and better on D like you said). Like both of him, his J is still a work in progress, but he definitely looks to have a clear path to following them as a Top-10 pick.
Jarace Walker@29? Arceneaux even with him....hmmmm. Whatever happens, as long as we stay healthy, the Coogs are going to be almost "unbeatable".
it looks like GG Jackson is going to get reclassified for this upcoming draft. (like shadeon sharpe i believe) If the Rockets end up at 6-7 or so it will probably push one more prospect down to them.
I wonder what position the rockets would want first to draft out of PG SF and C If I were to guess it would be PG then C last SF. After that question you have to ask how much is it fit vs talent. A Jalen Green/Scoot backcourt vs Cunningham/Ivey could be a cool rivalry.
After watching some more film, especially on the International guys, I've moved some ranks around. Here's by position: Guard Scoot Henderson | PG | 6'3" 200 | G-League | Year 2 | #1 OVR Anthony Black | PG | 6'7" 195 | Arkansas | Fr. | #7 OVR Terquavion Smith | SG/PG | 6'4" 170 | NC State | Soph. | #17 OVR Nolan Hickman | PG | 6'2" 195 | Gonzaga | Soph. | #22 OVR Caleb Love | PG/SG | 6'4" 200 | North Carolina | Jr. | #23 OVR Arterio Morris | PG/SG | 6'4" 190 | Texas | Fr. | #24 OVR Jaden Bradley | PG | 6'3" 195 | Alabama | Fr. | #25 OVR Hunter Sallis | SG/PG | 6'5" 195 | Gonzaga | Soph. | #31 OVR Cason Wallace | PG/SG | 6'4" 185 | Kentucky | Fr. | #37 OVR Juan Nunez | PG | 6'3" 185 | Spain | Intl. | #45 OVR Marcus Sasser | PG | 6'2" 195 | Houston | Sr. | #46 OVR JJ Starling | PG/SG | 6'4" 180 | Notre Dame | Fr. | #48 OVR Jalen Warley | PG | 6'6" 200 | Florida State | Soph. | #51 OVR Grant Sherfield | PG/SG | 6'3" 195 | Nevada | Sr. | #54 OVR Wing Dariq Whitehead | SG/SF | 6'6" 205 | Duke | Fr. | #4 OVR Keyonte George | SG | 6'4" 210 | Baylor | Fr. | #5 OVR Nick Smith Jr. | SG | 6'5" 185 | Arkansas | Fr. | #8 OVR Nikola Djurisic | SF/SG | 6'8" 200 | Serbia | Intl. | #11 OVR Ausar Thompson | SG/SF | 6'7" 195 | OT Elite | Year 2 | #14 OVR Amen Thompson | SG/SF | 6'7" 195 | OT Elite | Year 2 | #15 OVR Amari Bailey | SG/SF | 6'6" 190 | UCLA | Fr. | #16 OVR Julian Phillips | SF | 6'8" 185 | Tennessee | Fr. | #21 OVR Matas Buzelis | SF | 6'9" 190 | G-League | Year 1 | #27 OVR Terrence Arceneaux | SG/SF | 6'6" 190 | Houston | Fr. | #28 OVR Sidy Cissoko | SF | 6'8" 195 | G-League | Year 1 | #29 OVR Rayan Rupert | SG/SF | 6'6" 200 | France | Intl. | #34 OVR Emoni Bates | SG/SF | 6'9" 190 | Eastern Michigan | Soph. | #40 OVR Matthew Cleveland | SF/SG | 6'7" 195 | Florida State | Soph. | #42 OVR Julian Strawther | SF | 6'7" 210 | Gonzaga | Jr. | #53 OVR Forward Cam Whitmore | SF/PF | 6'7" 230 | Villanova | Fr. | #3 OVR GG Jackson | PF | 6'10" 215 | South Carolina | Fr. | #6 OVR Chris Livingston | SF/PF | 6'7" 220 | Kentucky | Fr. | #12 OVR Baba Miller | PF/SF | 6'11" 210 | Florida State | Fr. | #13 OVR Leonard Miller | PF/SF | 6'10" 215 | G-League | Year 1 | #18 OVR Kris Murray | PF/SF | 6'8" 225 | Iowa | Jr. | #19 OVR Dillon Mitchell | SF | 6'7" 200 | Texas | Fr. | #20 OVR Jordan Walsh | SF | 6'7" 205 | Arkansas | Fr. | #26 OVR Jerace Walker | PF | 6'8" 220 | Houston | Fr. | #30 OVR Harrison Ingram | SF/PF | 6'7" 225 | Stanford | Soph. | #32 OVR Brandon Miller | PF/SF | 6'9" 200 | Alabama | Fr. | #33 OVR Mark Mitchell | SF/PF | 6'8" 210 | Duke | Fr. | #35 OVR Tristan Vukcevic | PF/SF | 6'11" 210 | Serbia | Intl. | #43 OVR Roko Prkacin | SF/PF | 6'9" 215 | Croatia | Intl. | #47 OVR Nathan Missia-Dio | PF/SF | 6'8" 230 | Belgium | Intl. | #49 OVR Arthur Kaluma | SF/PF | 6'7" 220 | Creighton | Soph. | #50 OVR Big Victor Wembayama | C | 7'3" 225 | France | Intl. | #2 OVR Dereck Lively II | C | 7'1" 220 | Duke | Fr. | #9 OVR Kel'el Ware | C/PF | 7'0" 215 | Oregon | Fr. | #10 OVR Henri Veesaar | C/PF | 6'11" 225 | Estonia | Intl. | #36 OVR Ousmane N'Diaye | PF/C | 6'11" 210 | Senegal | Intl. | #38 OVR Adem Bona | PF/C | 6'9" 230 | UCLA | Fr. | #39 OVR Yohan Tarore | C/PF | 6'10" 220 | Auburn | Fr. | #41 OVR DaRon Holmes II | C/PF | 6'10" 225 | Dayton | Soph. | #44 OVR Oscar Tshiebwe | C/PF | 6'8" 260 | Kentucky | Sr. | #52 OVR Mouhamed Gueye | PF/C | 6'11" 195 | Senegal | Intl. | #55 OVR Trayce Jackson-Davis | PF/C | 6'10" 240 | Indiana | Sr. | #56 OVR Daimion Collins| PF/C | 6'9" 205 | Kentucky | Soph. | #57 OVR Adama Sanogo | PF/C | 6'9" 245 | Connecticut | Jr. | #58 OVR Azoulas Tubelis | PF/C | 6'11" 240 | Arizona | Jr. | #60 OVR
You must really think highly of Scoot. I believe I figured out what is going to happen the next draft. The Rockets win the first pick and get Victor. They trade the Bucks pick, all of the Nets assets along with Sengun and KPJ for the second pick with Scoot. Scoot Green Eason Jabari Victor Ending the tanking lol
I think both Scoot and Wembayama have a clear path to being elite prospects entering the 2023 Draft, but I'm not 100% sold yet on either one. The fact that neither of them are playing CBB makes them both slightly harder to scout than say Paolo/Chet/Jabari, but as long as we know how their leagues differ from the NBA, we can put their play/roles/stats in context. I'll be real -- I don't love evaluating G-League prospects. It's reminiscent of Summer League ball, where the pace is ramped up, the structure is low, and defense is generally lacking. So with that, you're usually not going to get a good feel for a G-Leaguer's intangibles, and if they haven't developed them yet, they aren't going to get them on the Ignite. On the flipside, Wemby's playing in Euroleague, which is obviously a legitimate league where young guys rarely put up impressive numbers (unless you're Luka), but the different style of play can obscure certain traits that're more/less important in the NBA. He obviously plays very differently from him, but Scoot reminds me a bit of a PG version of Anthony Edwards, in that his confidence is unwavering, he's relentless to a fault at times, and his body/explosiveness is on a level beyond his peers. He's going to need structure and coaching, and unfortunately he's not going to get it on the Ignite, but I like his chances to develop into a star assuming he continues adding to his game (namely his 3-ball). Wembyayama, not unlike Chet, is going to have his offensive upside overrated because of their rare height/length/skill combinations, without taking their body-types into account. Wemby's even taller, and looks to have a more clear role in the L, but I'd argue Chet's motor gives him an edge in some ways (and one of his best attributes). I talked about his struggles to finish inside in his 13 games last year, but that's not a huge sample-size. I stand by my Porzingis/Gobert hybrid comparison for now -- a guy who can anchor a top defense, stretch the floor on O, and be a great complementary scorer, even if he's more finesse/jumper-happy on O than most of the top Cs.
My apporach to the 2023 draft is highly informed by my view of the Rockets' roster. The way I see it: 1 - KPJ - Nix/Washington 2 - Green - Christopher/Gordon 3 - Eason - Christopher/2023 draft pick 4 - Smith - Eason/2023 draft pick 5 - Sengun - Garuba/2023 draft pick Guards - I think KPJ/Green play the bulk of the available minutes at the 1&2. Christopher will get some minutes behind Green while Nix and Washington battle out to see who is the backup to KPJ and who runs the show at RGV. Gordon factors in there somewhere until he is dealt at the deadline to a contender of his choice for a nominal return. Forwards/Wings - Jabari developing into a knockdown shooter/floor spacer is crucially important to this team moving forward. I think he and Eason are interchangeable at the 3/4 but both will be seen as 30 mpg players moving forward. I think, given the glut at guard, Christopher is forced to play at small forward in 3 guard lineups much of the time. I would like to add another 2 way guy from the 2023 draft that can play either forward spot (probably with the Milwaukee pick - Jarace Walker, Aarthur Kaluma or Mark Mitchell maybe?). Having Tate on a longer term value deal makes moving him easier and Nwaba's days are numbered here as well. I think Martin falls out of the rotation unless they showcase him with the arrival of Jabari and Tari. Center/Big - Sengun is obviously the guy at this point but there is still hope for Garuba as his backup. I see this spot as the most obvious hole to be filled by the Rockets' 2023 lottery pick. Hoping for Lively or Ware since I am doubting the gods will smile on getting #1 overall.
Been watching film on Anthony Black. He's getting some hype as a forward sized creator, so I wanted to get a pre-college assessment in. Can get to the rim and can finish in a couple different ways. Still developing touch. Shot looks alright, but not a knockdown shooter. Good handle and decent vision, but a level below guys like Cade and LaMelo. He's not consistently breaking down guys or creating looks off the dribble. Athleticism isn't super explosive, but he moves well and looks quick. Not sure if he's going to be a primary on-ball guy in the NBA. Has the makings of a great connector, occasional creator, and defender. Someone that can fit any lineup. Looked a bit more like a facilitator playing international comp where he apparently led the USA FIBA U18 team in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Curious to see how he develops at Arkansas and meshes alongside the other 5* guys who are also touted as lotto talent creators (Nick Smith, Jordan Walsh). Might see his role narrowed and his stock suppressed, but he has a chance to be the best of that bunch.
