That's right its Marcus Morris's daddy back at it again. Theres already plenty of discussion(by me) about my favorite foreign prospect since Luka, so I'm just going to talk about a few things that I think I can add value on here since I have been studying him for a few months. You have heard of all the superlatives, one of the most productive teenagers in European basketball history, mvp. What I want to talk about is what can prevent him from reaching his upside, and why I think he has a chance to overcome it, thereby making him one of the best picks in the draft. The combination of outlier post scoring efficiency, elite pick and roll efficiency, and elite passing ability(for his age and position) makes him a savant on the offensive end. Add to that what would have been the 5th highest offensive rebounding rate in the NBA, the highest foul drawing rate in the Turkish league and you are looking at a generational prospect at age 18. So why did he slide all the way to 16, why all the skepticism? Lateral quickness, and the ability to defend the pick and roll. Thats it. He actually has good vertical athleticism, and hustles down the court with decent straight line speed. But when defending the pnr he has poor technique(lunges at ball handler looking to steal the ball, correctable) and poor hip agility/quickness. Which is quite the big deal. Bigs in this mold get run off the floor especially in the playoffs where they are targeted, so teams are weary of taking a guy like this if ultimately he won't be on the floor to help you during the most crucial moments. However, IF he can overcome this shortcoming, his strengths can shine through and grow into a dominant player. This is why I think he can: This was Sengun on the far right 2 years ago at a U16 tournament.(teammate Garuba on far left fun fact) Here he is in full motion glory. Particularly check out his legs in that picture above. This kid was obese. Could barely dunk. Over the past 2 years he has undergone a full body transformation, reportedly losing over 30 pounds the last year. He looks like this now: He is far more athletic, far quicker. He's gone through the same slim down become dominant process as Jokic and Kevin Love. My point here? I believe he was still adapting to his new found agility in much of the scouting film that NBA teams are relying on. Remember he just turned 19 last week! He is still growing into his body as any teen would be, but more extremely he is adapting to a NEW, slimmer body, and most importantly he has yet to have any American or NBA physical training. It is my belief, and hope that as he continues his body transformation, he will get faster, stronger and more agile, which eventually makes him at least a passable PNR defender(does not have to be great). If he is only good enough on defense to merely stay on the court, he can allow his dominant offensive attribute to impact the game. Besides that, the immense IQ he shows on offense he demonstrates on the defensive end as well, already. He has a high steal rate(7th in the Turkish league) much like Jokic, they think the game on O and D. He also led the league in blocks due to again the iq to position himself well, and adequate vertical athleticism that I mentioned. As long as he can physically improve like I hope, these two attributes should really accentuate his defensive impact. Lastly, even with physical improvement and a high defensive iq, I doubt that he will ever be a plus defender, which is why the PF that partners with him will be key to complimenting his weaknesses. A guy like Draymond, Jonathan Issac, Isaiah Stewart would be ideal. An elite defender, shot blocker, with some range to spread the court. Evan Mobley would have been a dream match. Wood is not quite ideal, as he is a very productive offensive player(that spread the court so that's good) but with his own defensive questions. But then, literally the second best fit after Mobley in this draft just falls in Stone's lap, Garuba is a match made in heaven and a perfect yin to Sengun's yang! All in all, I'm so excited, so tired, we have fought, we have cried, we have laughed, I'm not the most graceful of poster at times recently and I apologize, because in the end it was all worth it. Cuz we got my Sengun. Is he the next franchise player for the Houston Rockets? Look I'm not making that mistake again. This is the NBA draft, anything can happen, anyone can be a bust. Maybe he never develops defensively and end up as a backup big. Its possible! But you don't get to take a chance on a generational player like this every year(with big holes I know!) If certain things break our way, if he has outlier development like he has already shown, we could be looking at a player every other team is scratching their heads why they didn't take a chance on. And that's more than what you can ask of a 16th pick.
Great write up and analysis man! I cant wait for summer league. You think there's any chance he doesn't want to come play in the NBA this year? Project him as a backup or down in the GLeague most of the year? I have the same questions regarding Garuba.
0 chance he doesnt come over. Garuba I believe has a buyout that we need to deal with before coming over? Sengun is way, way, WAY too good for the G league. He was the mvp of the Turkish league already at 18 which would make the G league look like a joke. As for in the NBA, I could definitely see him starting off coming off the bench until he adjust to the speed, and allows the coaches and management to evaluate/improve his defense against backups without him being made a fool of by the Dames and Hardens.
Is the Turkish league really better than the g league? That’s impressive if so, I know nothing about overseas hoops.
Turkish league is definitely better than the g league. The turkish league is the second highest paying domestic league in Europe, after the Spanish ACB. Salary is a good gauge of player quality since that's what attracts the best players. The Euroleague is universally recognized as the best league outside the nba, and it's current champion, Anadolu Efes, is a team in the Turkish league. In fact a team Sengun had to play multiple times last season, including a playoffs series. (The Euroleague champion is good enough to win some games in the NBA)
Turkish league has a bunch of ex nba players. The g league has some fringe nba players trying to make a roster, who are decent, but then a bunch of filler players that are going no where just there to make other players look good. If they were good enough to make an overseas roster they would be there (like Tate was) because it pays far better.
Great stuff. the change and improvement from just that video is insane. i love his aggressiveness. I think he could be a PF… even factoring in his best attribute right now is interior scoring. He just needs a 35%+ three point shot and the form is there. His handle is solid and with the shot he can take people off the dribble and get into his bag that way. If he was 2 inches taller or 3-6 inch longer wingspan he’s a top 6 pick for sure. but even still he slipped stupid far. Consider OKC took Giddey 6th. Sixth!!! His peak is SF version of Ricky Rubio… which is “fine”.
Watch him compete for ROY if given the chance. I'm as excited about the Rockets getting him as I am about Green.
That was initially my thought too. He won't be that good, but he could be the closest thing to Dream's offense we're ever going to see around here again. I think he could be as exciting Green, but in a different way. As CXbby said, I hope his defense becomes good enough that he doesn't get played off the floor. Much like Kanter was a few years back in the Playoffs against us.
Dream was an athletic freak when young, that's probably blasphemous comparing him here. The comp I like better if we are talking insane hof upside is Kevin McHale.
