3 games left: what spot will we finish?

To clear up the misunderstanding once and for all, the tiebreaker for draft pick placement is entirely random:

http://coscorrosa.com/draft/

 

i think the celtics will win at least one more of there games and if we lose the rest of ours we will be tied with them.

 

I'd be stoked if we could get the #7, which I think is about the best we can realistically hope to get. I voted for #9 though. I just have a feeling about it.

Hopefully if we get #7 we can get at least a little luck and maybe end up picking at 5 or 6, which will likely be JUST high enough to nab my ideal choice, Brandon Roy.

 

The Warriors play Portland twice.

 

I said in another thread the Warriors will BEAT Portland twice. Now that Darius Miles has basically been thrown off the team, this is even more likely to happen.

http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1144988721251470.xml&coll=7

 

I think that is mathematically impossible... if we end up at #7, we can either pick at 1,2,3, or pick at 7,8,9,10...

 

The best we can hope for is 6th, but that would require some teams below us to win a few of their remaining games (probably unlikely).

We'll probably end up 7 or 8, and if we're REALLY lucky, maybe we'll get one of those top 3 picks.

Not bad.

 

Has there been a bigger transformation of a player's attitude in leauge history? Back when he was with the Clippers, everyone seemed to love the kid and he was deemed untouchable. Since then, it's been a steady transition to complete cancer. I don't know, maybe he was always a jerk, but I remember reading tons of positive things about this guy.

 

We'll probably be picking eighth in the draft. Finish 7th, and the lottery drawing will drop us a spot.

And of course we're all hoping for a little Yao Ming luck and get one of the top 3 seeds and won't need to sweat whether we can draft Brandon Roy.

 

alright, warriors gonna win 2 more, boston is gonna beat NY. and we lose then all, tie with warriors for the 6th and 7th spot.

 

If we end up in the sixth spot then there is a strong possibility that we end up getting SECOND pick in the draft.

 

It's a shame this isn't a better draft, where positioning might actually mean a bit more than it does.

 

I wrote a short program that spit out the probabilities of us getting a particular draft pick, given our record order. Assuming I understand the rules correctly (followed this), it should be accurate.

Obviously, we won't finish more than 6th worst in record. But here are the probabilities for the worst 5 teams:

Code:

[b]		1	2	3	4	5[/b]
	1	25	19.9	15.6	11.9	8.8
	2	21.5	18.8	15.8	12.6	9.6
	3	17.8	17.1	15.6	13.3	10.7
	4	35.7	31.9	22.6	9.9	0
DRAFT	5	0	12.3	26.5	35.1	26.2
PICK	6	0	0	4	16	36
	7	0	0	0	1.2	8.4
	8	0	0	0	0	0.4
	9	0	0	0	0	0
	10	0	0	0	0	0
	11	0	0	0	0	0
	12	0	0	0	0	0
	13	0	0	0	0	0
	14	0	0	0	0	0

We'll probably finish 6th to 11th worst record:

Code:

[b]		6	7	8	9	10	11[/b]
	1	6.3	4.3	2.8	1.7	1.1	0.8
	2	7.1	4.9	3.3	2	1.3	1
	3	8.1	5.8	3.9	2.4	1.6	1.2
	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
DRAFT	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
PICK	6	43.9	0	0	0	0	0
	7	30.5	59.9	0	0	0	0
	8	4	23.2	72.4	0	0	0
	9	0.1	1.8	16.8	81.3	0	0
	10	0	0	0.8	12.2	87	0
	11	0	0	0	0.4	8.9	90.7
	12	0	0	0	0	0.2	6.3
	13	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
	14	0	0	0	0	0	0

And finally, for the teams that finish with 12th to 14th worst record (as you can see, almost guaranteed the last three picks):

Code:

[b]		12	13	14[/b]
	1	0.7	0.6	0.5
	2	0.8	0.7	0.6
	3	1	0.9	0.7
	4	0	0	0
DRAFT	5	0	0	0
PICK	6	0	0	0
	7	0	0	0
	8	0	0	0
	9	0	0	0
	10	0	0	0
	11	0	0	0
	12	93.5	0	0
	13	3.9	96	0
	14	0	1.8	98.2

 

we should've started tanking long time ago ( right when Tmac went down).. but I have a good feeling about the draft this year, something inside me is telling me that this draft will be like Lebron, Carmelo, and Wade's draft..

 

First of all, I'm assuming we lose our last 3 games.

The Warriors: Beat the Blazers tonight and will do so again Monday in Oakland. I assume they will lose to the Jazz in their last game. Therefore, Golden State will finish with a better record.

Sonics: @LAC, @SAC, DEN. Probably beat the sorry Nugs at home. They are playing hard and trying to win games. I predict they will win one or two and finish with a better record than us.

Minny: At home against the Spurs and Grizz. They will likely lose both games. The Spurs will smoke them tomorrow because they want to clinch the division and the Grizz aren't tanking games even though they should (to meet the Nugs instead of the Mavs).

It's a four team horse race for #6. I say we will tie with Minny at #6 and need a coin flip to see who "flops" to #7. Too bad the Sonics couldn't close out the Clips Friday night.

 

apostolic3, you forgot the Celtics. They are currently at 32 wins (compared to the Rockets 33). So they're in the 6th spot by themselves right now. And their playing the Nets, Cavs, and Heat to close out the season. They could very easily drop all 3.

My guess if that Boston ends up winning one and it's a three way tie for the 6th spot, between them, us and Minny.

 

Ooooops! You're right. I think they will win at least one of those games because none of those teams has anything to play for.

 

So the most realistic scenarios based on remaining schedules are:

1. A tie for 7th with Minny(most likely), or

2. A tie for 6th with Boston and Minny(go celts ).

Either way, the lowest slot we should expect is 8th, which means a post-ping pong ball decent chance to drop to 9th, and highly unlikely drop to 10th or 11th.

Overall, not a bad ending considering how late in the season the Rockets got into the lottery "lose one for the hopper" fray. The only slip up for the team was that stupid Golden State win. Not only would we be in a better position now, but I think that's when Yao realized he had to take control of the situation. However, breaking your foot to help the team is a little drastic, no Yao?