http://www.270towin.com/ I am so addicted to this website. Especially the simulator. Try clicking on states in the home page and look further down the page for probabilities and paths to victory based on your predictions.
If you want statistical analysis and simulation, go here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com They run regressions of all the polling data, run 10,000 nightly simulations, provide win %'s for each state, determine the core states that determine the election, etc. As far as analysis goes, it's by far the best out there.
what's depressing is that more money than you or i will ever see in our lifetimes are bet on these simulations every day -_-
