I heard on the radio this morning that the Astros blew 28 saves last year. The real number is 26. Most of the good teams averaged around 15. Maybe starting pitching has something to do with it (fatigue and all), but it sounds to me like the GM's obvious attempt to upgrade the bullpen could have a great affect on the Astros. Couple that with our improved lineup and even with our less than stellar pitching we could compete in the watered down Central. If we gain 11 saves over last year it puts us in the mid-80's win-wise. Is it really far-fetched that we could get another 5-8 games with our improved hitting?
Astros should be around 500, the weak division could put them in the mid to upper 80's if things break right. It's kind off all or nothing with this group since we don't have anything of real value in our farm system. Either we are right about this group or we are stuck with them. Let's hope it comes together but if it does not it's time to start trading pieces for prospects and for god sake signing draft picks
I think that's pretty much what will happen this year. I guarantee you that every one of the high picks will be signed this time around. As long as Roy, Berkman, and Pence aren't traded, I could let go of just about everyone else IF it meant getting solid prospects in return.
Blown saves are pretty much a worthless stat, IMO. There can be multiple blown saves in a single game. A pitcher can get a blown save in the 6th inning, and a closer doesn't get a blown save if he blows a 4-run lead since it was never a save opportunity to begin with.
Quoted for truth. "Holds" are pretty worthless, too. Let me hear everyone's thoughts on what statistics you like to use to gauge a bullpen guy: % of inherited runners who score WHIP K/BB ratio ERA ERA+
These are good. ERA's a tough one b/c a couple of bad outings can skew it for months. Given the specialization of pens these days, lots of situational stuff too: L/R splits GB% starting an innings vs. coming in with runners on (cough*Wagner*cough) performance with various days of rest performance when pitching multiple innings And now I know how to do bulletpoints.
I always considered "holds" a good indicator for your bullpen. It tells you if your 7th and 8th inning pitchers don't blow the lead when you're up by only 3 runs or less. Since those middle relief pitchers can't get the save, it's a simple measuring stick equivalent to the save.
So, when the team has a three-run lead, and a guy comes in and gives up 2ER on 3 hits and a walk, he's looking pretty good? WHIP is far more useful than "holds". They seriously ought to stop keeping that statistic.
put down the kool-aid. outside of the roy, we are the texas rangers and we will finish somewhere in the ballpark of 60-70ish wins.
That's right! It applies to the same method when your team scores 8 runs and the other scores 7 runs that you get the win. However, i guess wins are overrated too.
Correct! Wins are indeed overrated as a statistic for pitchers. Jeriome Robertson "won" 15 games as a rookie. Methinks the offense had a little somethin' to do with that.
This is certainly true, but unless a team had a flukishly large number of these types of blown saves, then it would still be useful stat when used in comparison to other teams. But I think the bigger question is - did our bullpen really improve? We started last year with Qualls/Wheeler/Lidge. Now we have Geary?/Villareal/Valverde.
