The Tucker signing seems to have generated a lot of discussion about the upcoming CBA expiration and a potential salary cap, so I figured a new thread on that topic might be worthwhile. Discussion questions: What are the odds of a lockout and/or a lost season? What would the impact be of those outcomes? What are the odds of MLB instituting a salary cap? What are viable alternative solutions to address the spending gaps between clubs? What other changes would you like to see in the next CBA?
The deferral system needs to be adjusted or at a minimum- regulated. Owners and players will absolutely go to war over a salary cap. Manfred made a recent comment about a FA deadline and I believe Brent Rooker said that is about the “most anti player thing” possible. I’d put the chances of a work stoppage at about 90% and I also expect games to be missed next season. Hope I’m wrong but I think there’s a huge gap between some of the things owners want and things players won’t back down from.
I will reply to my own thread. I think the odds of a lockout are very high, but the odds of a lost season are extremely low. A lockout and shortened season won’t be a big deal imho. But a lost season would be devastating to MLB’s popularity. I don’t think there will be a formal salary cap. I think there will be some kind of compromise whereby the tax is increased dramatically for the top 2-3 teams and that tax money is forced back to the players via salary floors for the teams that aren’t spending. I think MLB owners are already preparing for this concession as we’ve seen some of the bottom spenders sign a few players over the last year. I think expansion is something that could potentially entice the players to concede to a salary cap of some form. MLBPA could be given a big % of the initial franchise fee for expansion teams as a trade for accepting a cap. Just thinking outside the box. Other changes I would like to see: A 6 round international draft. All players under 25 must come into the league via the draft. Players over 25 can come in via free agency; formalize the relationships with the leagues in Japan and Korea so that all players are posted after their age 25 season and their posting team gets a % of the free agent contract. Allow players to voluntarily opt into having additional minor league options to avoid being DFA, and guarantee big league minimum salaries for all players on 40 man rosters. The waiver tornado is just stupid and doesn’t really benefit anyone with fringey guys bouncing from team to team and not even getting to play. Let players accrue service anytime they are on a 40 man roster, even if they’ve been optioned to the minors; players reach free agency after 7 years of service time or their age 29 season, whichever comes first. Fill up the offseason calendar: Nov 1-7: WS ends, Free agency begins, QO decisions Nov 8-14: GM Meetings, QO acceptance, Rule 5 protection Nov 15-21: Owners meetings, Non-tender deadline Nov 22-30: Awards announcements Dec 1-7: Winter meetings, Draft lottery Dec 8-14: Winter meetings, Rule 5 draft Dec 15-21: Int’l closing Dec 22-31: Christmas break Jan 1-7: Arb exchanges Jan 8-14: HOF announcements Jan 15-21: Int’l signings/draft Jan 22-31: Draft combine, old timers’ game Feb 1-7: Arb hearings Feb 8-14: Team caravans Feb 15: ST begins
While I would support a salary cap, it isn't very likely. The players really do not want it and the owners are not going to push it. I think that the solution is increasing the penalties with the draft and international spending. I would make it quite draconian. You are over the luxury tax line? Just going over it costs you 25% of international spending and you lose your #2 and #3 picks. for each year you are over. You blow past the second level? You lose your #1 for that year and the more over, the more you lose. Deferrals? Yeah you lose draft capital as well. Dodgers, you have $2,110,000,000 in deferred money? Then you lose picks, and a lot of picks, good picks ---
Deferred money should be counted towards the luxury tax value of a contract, and also the amount that is deferred should be counted towards the luxury tax in the years its paid out. Basically double tax the deferred salary.
Deferred salaries have no economic impact on the game. All they do is allow the player to claim they are making a bigger salary than they are and if the deferral is long enough, prevents players from doing something stupid with their money in the meantime (the Bobby Bonilla idea). The team still has to put the current value of that money in escrow and earns interest on it. It doesn't affect the luxury tax, payroll, or anything else.
This sounds like a pretty good way to close that loophole. Deferred money is just an unnecessary factor that muddies the water and gives the appearance of impropriety.
I actually don’t mind teams spending to go all-in. I think it should be an option. It only becomes a problem when it’s the same 2-3 teams going all in every single year. It’s not sustainable from a competitive balance standpoint. So I think your proposal would be a pretty good deterrent but I might modify it to allow a team to go over the tax once every 3-5 years without any draft pick penalties, and if a team goes over the tax more than 3 years in a row, they get a veritable death penalty like loss of ALL draft picks until they get under the tax.
This is what I would do. Just make the penalties increasingly high. Everything from losing all draft picks to luxury cap tax penalties of 300% or 500% or 2000%. There's some number that will get it under control and wreck a franchise. Get to that number. To get players to buy in, take some % of luxury tax penalty money and distribute it evenly amongst ALL the MLB players. That gets you the buy in from the vast majority of players and gets the lower-end players a lot more money and equity in the system.
What if every MLB team pooled 50% of their local TV revenue and split it equally among ALL of the teams? This takes money from the rich and gives it mostly to the poor. The poor teams would have additionally money to spend on FAs. The rich teams in theory have less money but can still spend what they like (since they do not care about cap penalties).
I have no idea how revenue sharing works now, but it feels like added revenue sharing along with benefits for small market teams spending and penalties for over spending is what needs to happen. My understanding is that these things are happening but just not enough to actually help and/or deter.
Honestly, the NFL cap system seems like it should be so simple but they've made it excessively complex. With all the bonus money, contract restructurings, dead cap money, cap hits wildly varying year to year, etc, it seems like so much of NFL GMing with regards to contracts has nothing to do with actual performance or player value. And what a player signs for has very little relevance to how much they actually end up making. We forget the good things about the MLB system vs the NFL and NBA. There are no holdouts, almost no trade requests/demands, no mid-contract extensions, etc. Once you sign a contract, you play it out. You don't have a lot of malcontents/etc. There's a simplicity to it.
Honestly the best idea I've heard of and it seems pretty fair. If you're going to treat the rest of the league as your farm system then you naturally lose resources to build up your own.
