Why wait? Let’s talk 2025 roster construction. Sure things: C/1B Yainer Diaz 2B Jose Altuve DH Yordan Alvarez SP Spencer Arrighetti SP Hunter Brown SP Ronel Blanco RP Bryan King RP Kaleb Ort RP Tayler Scott Sure things barring a rebuild: RF Kyle Tucker SS Jeremy Pena UT Mauricio Dubon C Victor Caratini SP Framber Valdez RP Bryan Abreu RP Josh Hader RP Ryan Pressly Major league players with major question marks: 1B Jon Singleton OF Chas McCormick CF Jake Meyers SP Luis Garcia SP Lance McCullers Jr. Young players near the majors with high upside: 1B/3B Zach Dezenzo IF/LF Shay Whitcomb OF Pedro Leon OF Kenedy Corona SS/3B Brice Matthews OF Jacob Melton OF/1B Trey Cabbage OF Zach Cole OF Luis Baez P Ryan Gusto P Jose Fleury P James Hicks P Ethan Pecko P Alex Santos II P Alimber Santa P AJ Blubaugh P Colton Gordon P Miguel Ullola P Aaron Brown Other 40 man roster players with options left: C Cesar Salazar IF Grae Kessinger SP JP France RP Luis Contreras RP Nick Hernandez RP Penn Murfee RP Oliver Ortega Fringey players who are out of options: OF Cooper Hummel RP Bennett Sousa RP Seth Martinez RP Forrest Whitley RP Shawn Dubin Guys who will start 2025 on the 60 day IL: SP Jose Urquidy SP Cristian Javier
My opinions: The team is too talented for a rebuild. As-is it projects for 85-95 wins. McCormick and Meyers belong on the roster but if they play everyday they should not be hitting higher than 8th. Singleton is only good against rhp. The lineup needs at least 6 players who project to be better hitters than Pena. It’s hard to know how much money they have to spend. My guess is $20M-$30M for 2025 but Crane could dig deeper knowing the end is near. They have 5 solid SP but only 2 who are surefire playoff starters. McCullers is toast. Javier is out until 2026. They have 3 elite bullpen arms and a boatload of upside/niche arms. They do not have a need in the bullpen. They need the guys they have to perform. Needs: 2 elite bats, 1 Game 3 SP Projected/ideal realistic opening day roster: 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez 1B Christian Walker ($55M/3yrs + 4th yr vesting option) C Diaz LF Michael Conforto ($16M/2yrs) SS Pena CF McCormick 3B Dezenzo Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Singleton, Meyers Rotation: Valdez Brown Yusei Kikuchi ($50M/3yrs + 4th yr vesting option) Blanco Arrighetti Garcia Bullpen: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Scott, Ort, Whitley, King IL: Javier, McCullers Optioned: Salazar, Cabbage, Kessinger, Whitcomb, Corona, Leon, Gusto, Gordon, Ullola, France, Murfee, Ortega DFA: Hummel, Sousa, Martinez, Dubin, Contreras, Hernandez Non-tendered: Urquidy
I agree with a lot of that but I don’t see Singleton on the roster next year. Hope I’m wrong, I like big jon.
If that’s the same Trey Cabbage I saw this year, I wouldn’t say he had high upside @Snake Diggit what do you think the odds of Bregman returning are? I think he’ll be in line for a Chapman like deal which should be palatable if it’s under 6 years.
I also let McCormick and Meyers go and find a way to trade for Robert. I would overpay for Robert based on his talent and he would complete the lineup. I love Baez but but would put him in a trade for Robert. If they decide to keep Baez they should begin to train him to play 1st base. He could be up by the all star break next year. His bat is that good. IMHO.
I think there’s <10% chance Bregman comes back to Houston. Theres probably a 5% chance they lock him up in the next month before free agency starts, there’s a <1% chance Houston aggressively pursues him in free agency and gets him, and maybe a 4% chance he doesn’t find the deal he wants and circles back to Houston next spring for a pillow contract.
My thoughts... the division is way too weak to not try to win the division and go through the crapshoot of the playoffs. All it takes is one badly timed injury to stage an upset as a #3-5 in the American League. The trade Pressly scenarios aren't happening as a 10-5 player. Bregman is more likely to stay than we may think although chance are that he is still gone -- he never was as vocal/disgruntled about his pay as Springer or Correa. In any case, the qualifying offer with Bregs may limit his offers. Verlander likely takes a pay cut since he knows that a good team is needed for him to get close to 300 wins within the next 3 years. Due to budget constraints, team may just seek a right-handed platoon partner for Singleton -- a 26-man roster allows for that. Wouldn't surprise me if one of the OF prospects fills that role. I think Kikuchi signs here as he has gotten comfortable with the coaching staff. Urquidy will be tendered a contract. At least one of Garcia, Murfee, and McCullers will be ready by opening day. Graveman will re-sign on the cheap.
Resign Bregman 7/$182 Resign Kikuchi 3/$48 Resign Heyward 1/$3 Resign Gamel 1/$1.5 Trade Framber to Reds for 2023 #18 prospect RF Rece Hinds, #2 (#32 overall) prospect, RHSP Rhett Lowder, and #16 prospect, 2b/of Carlos Jorge. Trade Kyle Tucker to Mets for #2 (#53 overall) prospect, SS/OF Jett Williams, #4 (#77 overall) prospect 1b/OF Ryan Clifford, and #11 prospect LHSP Jonathan Santucci C) Diaz and Caratini 1b) Dezenzo/Whitcomb and Singleton 2b) Altuve 3b) Bregman SS) Pena LF) Dubon and Gamel CF) Dubon and Meyers RF) Hinds and Heyward DH) Yordan SP) Brown, Kikuchi, (McCullers), Arrighetti, Blanco, Garcia, Lowder, Gusto, Blubaugh, France, Gordon Bullpen) Hader, Abreu, Murfee, Whitley, Pressly, Ort, King, Scott, Dubin, Sousa, Ortega Prospects added: Rhett Lowder 55 grade RHSP A+/AA/AAA/MLB in 2024 #32 overall Astros #1 Carlos Jorge 45 grade 2b/OF A+ in 2024 Astros between 8-18 Jett Williams 55 grade SS/OF A/AA/AAA in 2024 #53 overall Astros #2 Ryan Clifford 55 grade 1B/OF A+/AA in 2024 #77 overall Astros #3 Jonathan Santucci 45 grade LHSP NCAA (Duke) in 2024 Astros 8-18 Rece Hinds 45 grade RF AAA/MLB in 2024 Astros 8-18
Is it a forgone conclusion that if we aren’t winning or in the race that we have to trade Tucker or Valdez before we lose them for nothing?
I believe this is the smart way to handle it myself, a soft reload. Having said that, I don't think there is any chance Jim Crane would be ok with Dana going this route.
Verlander actually had a higher WHIP in 2008 and 2014 but his HR rate was at his highest ever. I can see him playing a final year Greinke-esque role (minus the hitting) by being the innings-eater that is going to have some good starts mixed in with some horrific starts.
It's going to have to be a super team friendly deal, though...and only if Kikuchi doesn't agree to come back, IMO. I think it's time to move on from JV. A rotation of Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, Arrighetti, and Blanco wins us the division...with Garcia and (lol) McCullers mixing in. I think they need to move one of Chas or Myers. Can't have 2 soft hitting, soft throwing CFers. I'd agree with bringing back Heyward for a season to platoon and be a vet voice in the clubhouse. If Bregman would agree to a 5/150 kind of deal, I'd bring him back. Otherwise, thanks for the memories. They can maybe sign someone on a 2-year type deal to bid time until Brice Matthews is ready. Meanwhile, I try to get Tucker to sign. Yeah, he's been crap in the playoffs the last couple of years...but he's also a big reason why we make the playoffs. If they can convince Pressley to accept a trade, I move him.
did you see altuves postgame comments? I’m sure it’s just lip service but I can’t help but be hopeful
For about a year + I’ve seen Bregman in the likes of Springer, Correa, Cole. Guys that are seeking their big payday. But the Astros have handed over millions of dollars in contracts to no-show or severely underperforming guys, that Keeping Bregman at a market price may be the smart move. Look at Abreu, Montero, and Hader. Those guys are getting around 200 million amongst them, and they are not worth anywhere near what they were paid. Two of those guys were so bad, they were not even replacement level - so Astros flat out cut them! The Astros know what they have with Bregman. He’s no longer the .900 OPS guy. But I think he is a solid .775 to .825 OPS for the next 4 years. And depending on how he handles injuries and wear and tear, he could be productive even after 4 years. Altuve is 34 or 35 years old, so the next 4 years of having Alvarez, Diaz, Bregman would be critical for them to have a run as a veteran team. Kyle Tucker is a guy I really like on the team, but he’s going to be like the home coming queen, super sought after by all the big money teams. Essentially I see Tucker having the same career as Trout, huge numbers, huge contracts, beloved by the media, but mediocre teams. It may take 60 million a year for 8-10 years to sign him. Especially if he has a season like he can if he doesn’t get injured. Trout wasted his opportunity for greatness because he took the whole salary flexibility pie for himself - nice guy, but rich nice guy. So I say Keep Bregman and pay him a reasonable going rate. Dansby Swanson got 7 years $177 million in Dec. 2022; that should be the starting point…. With everything going up I could see an 8 year 200 million dollar deal - what do y’all think?
I’m not ready to let JV go. He’s not going to get a big contract from anyone. I think it’s worth a shot to bring him back. You might just get lucky and see one final upswing to his career for not much money. If it doesn’t work out at least you might get some decent innings and worst case he gets DFA’d if he truly is done. Bringing JV back is actually a low risk, high reward proposition at this point. If we don’t re-sign JV I see him ending his career in Detroit.
Value is ALWAYS the positive difference between performance and cost. Every player can be undervalued or overvalued. only the rare few are properly valued.
