Here is your 2025 Houston Astros outfield if the season were to start today: Chas McCormick age:30/bats:RH/FA 2027 Steamer projection: 447 PAs = .703 OPS Very Good glove but poor arm plays all 3 spots. Poor 2024 w/.577 OPS but .842 in 2023 Career .867 OPS vsLHP Career .697 OPS vsRHP is playable considering defense. Jake Meyers age:29/bats:RH/FA 2028 Steamer projection: 370 PAs = .688 OPS Gold glove caliber glove but poor arm in CF Faded to .646 OPS in 2024 after strong start. .758 OPS vsLHP in 2024 and .759 Career . 603 Career OPS vsRHP makes him a poor everyday starter despite his glove. Mauricio Dubon age:30/bats:RH/FA 2027 Steamer projection: 311 PAs = .684 OPS plays all over, much of these PAs will be in the infield. Gold glove winning (and deserving) utility. 657 OPS in 2024 Career extreme splits .766 OPS vsLHP .636 OPS vsRHP 2024 they were more rounded, but it was because vsLHP went down, not because vsRHP went up = .639 vsLHP/.665 vsRHP Taylor Trammell age:27/bats:LH/FA 2030 Steamer projection: 283 PAs = .677 OPS No minor league options but likely to make it through waivers if needed. Career. 633 OPS in 359 PAs Career .714 OPS vsRHP in 268 PAs, .385 vsLHP in 91 PAs Jacob Melton age:24/bats:LH/ no MLB exp. Steamer projection: 197 PAs = .654 OPS Astros #2 and overall #48 prospect per mlbpipilene. Only has 192 PAs in AAA at 78 wRC+ so needs more seasoning. Viewed as CF of future. Pedro Leon age:27/bats:RH/still 6 yrs control Steamer projection: 161 PAs = .644 OPS Missed about 3 years of development due to a variety of things from Cuban defection to COVID and flukey injuries. Top of scale arm and plus speed and power. Can play all 3 spots and emergency (only) infield. #22 prospect per mlbpipeline. Has dropped each of the past few years due to age/slow progress. 1676 PAs in AAA over 3 seasons and 119 wRC+ in 2024. Gradually reducing Ks but still very high and only thing keeping him back. Shay Whitcomb age:26/bats:RH/6 years control Steamer projection: 99 PAs = 669 OPS Infielder by trade but glove moved him to outfield where he has limited experience. Bat is legit and well rounded. #15 prospect per mlbpipeline. 873 PAs in AAA and had 123 wRC+ in 2024 so bat should be ready. May need more OF time in AAA. Zach Dezenzo age 25/bats:RH/6 years control Steamer projection: 20 PAs = .697 OPS Infielder by trade who tried LF in winterball. Likely plays mostly OF due to need. #6 prospect per mlbpipeline Only 113 PAs in AAA but 149 wRC+ so is possibly in MLB to stay unless he needs work in OF. Cooper Hummel age 30/bats: Switch/FA 2030 Steamer projection: 7 PAs Career journeyman has no options but has made it through waivers multiple times. Eligible to file FA if not claimed again. Career .603 OPS vsRHP in 137 PAs .431 OPS vsLHP in 98 PAs. Classic AAAA player. Kenedy Corona age 25/batsRH/ no MLB exp. Steamer projection: 33 PAs = .610 OPS won minor league gold glove in AA in 2023. Promoted to AAA after down AA season in 2024 (83 wRC+ in 325 PAs) and had a bad 28 wRC+ in only 71 PAs. #23 prospect per mlbpipeline. #12 per Fangraphs. Running out of time to develop his bat but glove is legit in CF. Quincy Hamilton age:27/bats:LH/ no MLB exp. 542 career PAs in AAA @ 97 wRC+ No tools that stand out. Looks to be organizational depth. Colin Barber age 24/bats:LH/ no MLB exp. Spent last 2 seasons at AA getting 603 PAs of underwhelming and regressing results. Former high bonus draft pick and top 5 Astros prospect. Has lost speed and power never developed leaving him as LF only. Looks to be organizational depth but young enough to turn it around. Just nit likely. Zach Daniels age:26/bats:RH/ no MLB exp. High K guy will plus plus power and plus speed. Hasn't been able to stay healthy or conquer AA. Looks to be organizational depth. Zach Cole age 24/bats:LH/ no MKB exp. Stop me if you have heard this before: dynamic athlete with K issues. Has 4 plus tools: power, speed, glove, arm. Hit tool is only thing holding him back. Could be a rare guy talented enough to be a star w/ 30% K rate. #7 prospect per mlbpipeline and #16 by Fangraphs. 295 PAs in AA at 99 wRC+. Likely to get a shot in AAA if there is a spot. Luis Baez age 21/bats:RH/ no MLB exp. #5 prospect per mlbpipeline and #7 per Fangraphs. BB% has plummeted and K rate risen as he has been promoted so not a fast rise candidate. But bat is legit. Only 61 PAs at AA in 2024 so at likely a full season away. Huge arm and power. Body growth and development/speed-range will determine if he can stay in the OF.
Not sure a separate thread is necessary, but there is almost zero chance this depth chart looks the same by opening day. Houston will add at least one OF. That said it is not as dire as it appears. The OF (and overall lineup) is already in fantastic shape against LHP (as McCormick, Meyers, and Dubon all have very good career numbers against LHP). It seems pretty clear the front office expects a rebound from McCormick. At least one of Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Melton, Leon, or Trammell should be ready for a shot as the primary LF against RHP. They have a glaring need for a CF/RF who hits righties well. But I won’t panic at all if the opening day OF is Melton/McCormick/Dezenzo. One of the reasons I like Singleton on the bench is because he mitigates the weakness of Meyers/McCormick against RHP because he can pinch hit for them in clutch at bats.
I thought a separate thread was a good idea because it is a topic we have all been thinking/commenting on, it's the biggest issue this team has, and it's likely the topic that has the most news and opinions the rest of the off season. Maybe, if everything else has calmed down and 90% ofbthe comments in the offseason thread was about the OF then this wasn't needed, but it felt reasonable to me. And I also share your optimism, actually. I think Chas could very well have a good season. Even splitting the difference between 2023 and 2024 is .710 and I think that's a bit low, as he was not healthy at least some of 2024. .710 is fine considering the infield, especially if he's in CF I think Dezenzo, Leon, or Whitcomb ( in that order of likelihood) could become a strong everyday corner OF. I would still like to see a veteran LH OF bat to platoon in CF or the other corner, but if Brown and the nerd cave thinks Trammell can get a net positive player vs RHP then I'm OK with them giving this roster a chance in the first half. Finding a starter from among the rookies is pretty important for the future of this team and can't happen if they don't play.
Elite raw power, plus game power, plus speed, solid arm. For now he is still mostly tools, although he has performed well enough across 2.5 seasons of pro ball to already be in AAA; he was also hurt some of last year which may have tainted his numbers. He has 20 HR and 35 SB in 118 G in the upper levels. I am a little more concerned about his single digit walk totals in the upper levels than I am about his k rate. He has a fairly high floor because of his defensive value, and a sky high ceiling because he could be a 30/30 CF. 2025 is a big year for him. Dana Brown is not afraid to rush a prospect so it would not be shocking at all if he was brought up quickly this season. Melton hits righties very well and struggles against lefties so that also makes him a fit for Houston’s current needs.
I expect Chaz to have a good bounce back season. Not 23 good, but I suspect he will be good, and great against LHP.
I spelled it exactly the way I wanted to and the way it should be. His parents are the ones who f**ked it up. Even his nicknames all use the Z.
Yes rush. Age is just a number. Time and experience are what matter and he only played 105 games last year, and has only played 227 games (128 above A ball) in 2 1/2 yrs as a pro. Players with hit tool issues almost always progress slower than other prospects.
<200 pa in AAA (where he had a 78 wRC+). That’s in range of “rushed” for a guy in his 3 full pro season. But yeah it’s not extreme.
I think we have enough question mark outfielders that have the usual built in excuses. if he can hit, he will be gifted the job on site.
Renting an outfield at the trade deadline has worked for Dana before unfortunately at our expense in 21.
