New season, new thread. Trade deadline still 3+ months away but looking like the Astros will need to add a bat. Here’s an idea: Astros get: IF/OF Brendan Donovan Cardinals get: OF/IF Zach Dezenzo P AJ Blubaugh OF Luis Baez Astros get a 2-3 win player with elite on-base skills and defensive versatility. Donovan comes with control thru 2027 and is only making $2.8M this season. Cardinals get 3 high ceiling prospects who all slot in Houston’s top 15. Donovan slots into the leadoff spot for the Astros and as a lefty balances and deepens the lineup. 2B/LF Donovan LF/2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Paredes 1B Walker SS Pena RF Smith/McCormick C Diaz/Caratini CF Meyers
Someone in another thread called this season a “soft rebuild”, and that got me thinking about how that might play out at the trade deadline. Assuming all their active players stay healthy and McCullers and Arrighetti get healthy, here’s how a potential deadline might play out if Houston is looking further into the future: Astros get: IF Cooper Pratt (MIL #3 prospect, MLB #54 prospect) IF Luis Pena (MIL #9 prospect) Brewers get: SP Framber Valdez $5M Astros get: RHP Drew Beam (KC #14 prospect) Royals get: C Victor Caratini Astros get: 1B Luis Merejo (CLE #28 prospect) CB (B) pick Guardians get: 2B Brendan Rodgers OF Chas McCormick $2M
3 way trade to shake things up: Astros get: 2B Brendan Donovan CF Lars Nootbaar SP Eric Fedde UT Jeff McNeil OF/1B Ryan Clifford $10M (from NYM) Cardinals get: CF Jacob Melton CF Jett Williams IF Brett Baty P Forrest Whitley P Jackson Nezuh Mets get: SP Framber Valdez UT Mauricio Dubon OF Chas McCormick Resulting roster: 2B Donovan 3B Paredes DH Alvarez LF Altuve CF Nootbaar 1B Walker C Diaz RF Smith SS Pena Bench: McNeil, Meyers, Dezenzo, Caratini Rotation: Brown, Wesneski, Arrighetti, Blanco, Fedde, McCullers/Gusto Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Scott, Ort/Sousa, Dubin/VanWey
This team is probably just 1-2 pieces away. We KNOW that Yordan, and Diaz are going to hit. Walker will probably hit but at least makes Pena a gold glove candidate and helps the defense overall. His spot is set in stone regardless. What is needed is another run producer for the middle of the lineup who can move Walker down to a better position in the 5th-6th spots. If he's a lefty bat, all the better. Unfortunately, that player needs to be a 2b or possibly a CF or LF due to the current roster makeup. I think they should revisit a potential Brandon Lowe deal. Zach Dezenzo, Miguel Ullola, Ethan Pecko, and Luis Baez for Brandon Lowe. If TB want to substitute Dubon, Chas, and/or many of the current bullpen options on the 40 man, that woukd also work. Bottom line is that: Dezenzo still has plenty of upside but no place to play. In Houston, he is at best, a bench bat and backup at 4 corner positions. With Smith taking RF, Walker under contract for 3 more years, Yordan/ Altuve filling the DH, and the signing of Kevin Alvarez, Luis Baez is expendable. Ullola and Pecko are highly regarded, which is why I chose them, but the overall SP depth in AAA and AA allow the team to trade them. Put Smith at cleanup with Yordan and Lowe on either side if him, and move Walker to 6th. Play Lowe 75% at 2b and 25% in LF Altuve: 50% LF, 25% 2b, and 25% DH Alvarez 75% DH and 25% LF
I brought this up a couple of times over the winter and was castigated for it but it may not be too late to rebuild the system with an Alvarez trade. The left side of the infield is good for now. I am OK with giving Rodgers a chance to adapt for the time being at second but he will be needing a new contract at the end of this season. Without a major turn around this season we will probably be better off with a rookie short stop at second base. The Astros will almost certainly be Walkers last stand (maybe sooner than later) and his replacement needs to be a youngster whenever it becomes clear that he is done. We will need a left fielder when Alvarez is gone so Altuve can become the primary DH and play a little LF and 2nd base as a back up guy till he is ready to call it a day. The hardest part will be giving it all time to jell. Going out and spending on established players is too expensive and their best years are over by the time they become available. It will require the patience and the will of a younger mind set. One who is willing to put in the time to reap the rewards.
Based on his contract, Alvarez is one of the most valuable players in all of MLB based on trade value. First of all, there are very very few teams who have the assets to make that trade. We are probably talking about as much value as Juan Soto had when Washington traded him. Secondly, the majority of the teams who do would not be willing to trade so much talent and potential that it would be an equal trade. Thirdly, are you really an Astros fan?
It’s extremely difficult to get fair value for a player with as much surplus value as Alvarez. That’s why you don’t see any teams regardless of the state of their org trade away hall of fame caliber players with 4 years of control left. Theres no comparison for a potential Yordan trade. But not only that, you don’t trade Yordan unless you’re undergoing a full rebuild, which also means trading every other player of value on the roster. The Astros are built to be a competitive team thru at least 2027. If they don’t get back on track this season, it will make sense to trade Framber at the deadline. It may make sense to also trade McCormick, Dubon, and Abreu, depending on the market for them. But there’s almost no scenario where it makes sense to trade Yordan Alvarez or Jose Altuve.
I was going to reply, but trading Yordan at this time is just too ridiculous to consider. This was DD level dumb and I don’t think the poster has earned that level of disdain yet.
Agreed on Altuve but there is one scenario where trading Alvarez makes sense and that is exactly what I am advocating. He should bring in enough young top prospects to make a rebuild over the next few years a lot less painful. This team is going nowhere and has no opportunity to go anywhere in the future. Why not at least try to make an opportunity for ourselves?
So what you are really saying is that Cam Smith has no future and that Alvarez, Paredes, Diaz, Pena, and Altuve all suck. How do we not have an opportunity go anywhere in the future? Oh, and Framber, Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco and about a 10 high ceiling guys in the minors have absolutely no future. Just a horrible take based on the first 18 games of this year and a down year last year that we had the best record from Mid-May to the end of the regular season and made the playoffs. Ok, you have been elevated to DD status.
I understand your idea in theory. The problem is that there is no realistic trade that is equal or better than 4 years of Yordan Alvarez at $19.1M AAV. Keep in mind that if Yordan is traded, his AAV goes up to just over $24M, so he will have less value to any team getting him than to the Astros. Alvarez loses $20M in value as soon as he joins another team. Therefore, a "fair" trade FOR him by another team is much less valuable to the Astros than keeping him unless they have no chance to contend.
3 team deal: Astros get Bregman, Tucker Boston gets- 120M cash Chicago gets- cam Smith, Wesneski, Paredes. is there a single Astros fan that would do that deal right now? I wouldn’t even consider it for a nano-second. great offseason so far.
Framber for Mayo. I’m at the point in time where if I saw 4 good weeks from LMJ and Arrighetti being back healthy I’d trade Framber straight up for Mayo. Or a good hitting 2B or CF. Basically, I think Framber is unnecessary for this to be a playoff team. Hunter Brown is your Hammer/cy young type. Arrighetti and LMJ are fine as 2/3. We have about 8 guys I trust in the organization this year to be competent MOR/BOR types for this team: Wesneski, Blanco, Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Fleury. I’m higher on all those guys than most, but I’m pretty sure I’m right. We have 2 holes in the lineup long term (2B and CF). If we fixed either of them longterm with a Framber deal I’d do that in a heartbeat.
Astros get: SS Kevin McGonigle SS Bryce Rainer P Ethan Scheifelbein 2B Max Anderson Tigers get: P Framber Valdez P Bryan Abreu SS Mauricio Dubon The Astros could finish restocking the top end talent in their farm with this trade. If their rotation didn’t look good after this they could trade pitching depth for a rental like Andrew Heaney.
Prospects are necessary to avoid a rebuild. Where would this team have beeen in 2022 without Pena? I understand the concept of over valuing prospects, but they are absolutely necessary to maintain a long competitive window.
I, in no way, advocate for trading Yordan. In fact I would use the words Stupid or crazy, rather than wild. This team actually accomplished, with Yordan, what it states it wants to do with all key players- lock them up beyond the initial control period at a reasonable cost. Why would they trade that away?
