$220M/8yrs is my current guess for Bregman. Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Mariners would be my odds leaders.
If I’m Crane/Brown I avoid any contract longer than 3 years. If Bregman can’t find his bag and is willing to do something like $70M/3yrs with bonuses and opt outs then I’m all for that, otherwise let somebody else pay him into his late 30s. Houston can replace Bregmans offense for the next couple seasons with somebody like Carlos Santana or Mark Canha for 1/10 the price.
Really don't want to sign more corner IF on the wrong side of 35, thank you. I don't think that's a plan destined to succeed. And, of course, neither can play 3B.
My dimwitted prediction for Bregman is one of those "oh he went there?! suprises. Some Team not spending now like Tigers or Nationals who need leadership and have money coming off the books. Tigers might think bats and leadership and someone with balls to demand accountability from cancer Baez might do the trick. Baez might be out of even Breggy's reach. Guy almost got Lindor to war with Mets fans with his friends from kid who cares attitude rubbing off in just short time. I can see Mets as wild card. There's rumour Vientos going 3B -> 1B because of D and Alonso leaving with unreal demands for 1B. Cohen and Boras having working relationship and Mets not having Yankees & Dodgers recent history with Astros as baggage. Writing this I see Astros lineup. Pretty ok, great that Breggy is playing. Win would be nice, just not to get in longer L streaks and give M's some hope. I believe division is ours very strongly but this season has felt really long and stressing. I can't handle like 8 game losing streak b4 cruising to winning the division. Im in the nuthouse when the winning happens .
The Abreu deal will sour casual fans on what is otherwise a sound concept. That deal was 1 year too long and probably 20% too high in AAV. Signing older guys to 1-2 year deals is a solid way to deepen a decent lineup without crippling the longer term outlook or blocking prospects.
Give me Framber, it looks like since he stopped thinking and is throwing what Diaz calls, he's an Ace and a top 10 pircher in MLB.
It doesn't matter, Altuve is a Boras guy also. If the player wants the most money, Boras will do that. If the player wants to play for a particular team, then Boras will do that. If a deal isn't already done Bregman likely wants the most money possible, that feels unlikely to be with the Astros
5 years 125 is as far as I would go. I really hope Crane doesn't go more than 4 years even if the avg money per year is more.
The post reads like you think anyone who disagrees with the idea of signing 39-year-olds is a casual who just doesn't understand your sophisticated ideas. I don't know that you meant it that way, but that's how it read to me. You save money, sure, but you weaken the production at one position (3B) without necessarily improving another (1B). Considering you wanted to start the rebuild earlier this year, that may make sense to you, but it's troubling to lineup construction to have two question marks in the corner IF spots going into 2025. If they're set on letting Bregman go, at least get a solid replacement at 3B or a clear upgrade at a different spot, or use the savings to retain Framber, Tucker, etc.
There aren’t very many “casual” fans here. I don’t think there is a big pushback here, on signing older players to short contracts, based solely on the Jose Abreu experience.
The problem is that a “solid replacement at 3B” is going to be hard to come by based on the upcoming free agent market and the trade market at the deadline. You gonna trade Hunter Brown to Tampa for Yandy Diaz or throw money at…Yoan Moncada? Look at what guys like Canha and Santana did this season and project for next season against what Houston got at LF and 1B this season. Now, a big wildcard is what can be expected out of McCormick; if Houston expects him to return to his 2023 numbers then those moves make a lot less sense. btw I never said I “wanted” to start a rebuild or even that they should. When the Astros were in the dumps with <15% chance of making the playoffs, I suggested they should entertain it if they didn’t turn it around. (They turned it around.)
You were ready to throw in the towel. Some of us believed they would turn it around, believed in the talent. I don't think you were among that group. I have no idea what you see in Canha. Dude will be 36 on opening day and is in serious decline. His OPS this season is lower than Singleton. Santana kills lefties but he's a terrible hitter vs righties. So he'd be the small side of that platoon with Big Jon. The fact that there are no good free agents at 3B or in the trade market might mean that the Astros are better off throwing the bag at Bregs, assuming he's healthy by the offseason. A 5 or 6 year contract takes him to about the age of the old guys you're currently advocating for, and Bregman has the sort of skills (batting eye, plate discipline) that should age well. I'd go to Chapman's 6 year, $151 deal. $200m is too much, but I'm not sure he'll get that anyway. If he would take one or two years in the $35 million range, I think that would also be fair. He's got leverage in this market.
Wanna bet Bregman gets more than $151M? If Houston can get Bregman for that I’m all for it, but it’s not realistic. Expecting Bregman to go for a 2 year deal isn’t reasonable either.
Bregman gets more than Chapman He's a year younger, better hitter, underrated fielder, proven post season performer and winner and has higher career WAR and avg WAR per season. Spotrac has his market value 11.7% higher.
WAR after 2019: Bregman 15.8 (575G) Chapman 18.7 (619G) You can do the math if you want to average things out
