Who's in our circle of trust this year... assuming they are healthy? My list... Intimate Blanco Brown Scott Medium Abreu Hader Verlander Martinez Sousa King Contreras Low Pressly Valdez Arrighetti McCullers Bloss Dubin Non-Existent Montero Whitley Hernandez
You’ve got Blanco too high. His FIP gonna catch up with him at some point in time. I think he’s probably a solid MOR guy. He’s pitched like an all star. I don’t think that’s who he is. Brown is almost back in my circle. Framber I trust to eat innings every start at least. If JV is healthy I trust him to not blow up and give us a competitive start where he goes 5-7 innings and gives up 2-4 runs. Thats not ace but good enough. I trust Abreu in the pen.
Sober- Verlander Brown Framber Blanco Hader 3 beers in- Abreu Scott Martinez Garcia 10 minutes before closing time Pressly Arrigheti Dublin Drunk dial: Mccullers Bloss Take one for the wing man: Montero Contreras
The 3.82 ERA for a closer makes me hesitate with Hader. Framber's inconsistency scares me, and his trajectory is like a Boeing flight... 4 of 14 starts of giving up 5 runs or more
Ryan Pressly has given up 1 earned run in his last 30 playoff innings pitched. He is one of the greatest high pressure athletes in the history of sports.
I am actually very enthused about the bullpen the rest of 2024. Hader, Pressly, and Abreu don't look like the juggernaut we all thought coming in to the season, but they are all experienced leverage guys who will hold down a win the majority of the time. Taylor Scott has been great all season Shawn Dubin, Bryan King, and Luis Contreras have pitched very well. Seth Martinez has had some fortunate luck, but has been dependable and that's huge. To me the wildcard is Penn Murfee who has leverage stuff and been very good the past 2 years when healthy (look at his numbers) and is throwing bullpens and expected to be available next month.
Penn Murfee 2023 pitching ranks according to Baseball savant Sweeper (62.8%) xBA= .157 xSLG= .182 4 seam FB (34.5%) xBA .=.266 xSLG= .423 Sinker (2.7%) xBA= .260 xSLG= .284 Sweeper: 4th out of 158 pitchers w/ 3.7 run value per 100 pitches. 4 seam FB: tied for 106th out of 599 pitchers w/ 1.0 run value per 100 pitches. (for context Zach Wheeler is 1.0 this year) The current Astro w/ the best Sweeper is Shawn Dubin w/ a run value of 1.3 per 100. Seth Martinez and Spencer Arrighetti are the only other current Astros who use that pitch. Murfee will give the Astros another pitcher with an elite pitch and one more thing opponents will need to worry about and prepare for.
Astros currently with an elite pitch ( top 10th percentile run value) 4 seam FB: Taylor Scott 24th of 464 Seth Martinez 41st of 464 Changeup: Taylor Scott 14th of 246 Returning pitchers who have elite pitches: McCullers: Curveball 11th of 273 in 2022 Slider 22nd of 448 in 2022 Cutter 9th of 172 in 2022 I know many fans have forgotten how good he can be, but don't sleep on McCullers pitching like an All Star in September and in the postseason.
