2024 Hypothetical Astros Trades Thread

Agree with all of this

I don't think most of us realize how big of a step back we could take without Bregman

Astros recently have been much better at producing MLB level pitchers out of non-top prospects than doing the same with everyday players

We already need a bat, take Bregman out and not replace him with an equal level talent and we could be in a bad place quickly

 

I wouldn't move him just to move him, or without a replacement in place.

That said, I think he is what he is - a legitimate starter who can hold down an important defensive position but not a star.

He should never hit in the top 2/3 of a lineup ( I know that is debatable). He doesn't use his speed to steal bases. His offense is decidedly average overall and poor vs RHP.

He has had 3 full seasons now and no longer has any real potential to reach.

He is now arbitration eligible so those things bring less and less surplus value every year.

I think he is the 2nd best option to trade, behind Framber, that would improve this team without creating a big hole. Trading Tucker kills any chance in 2025 IMO.

Over a full season at SS, how much better than Dubon would he really be? How many wins do the Astros lose?

In 2023 Dubon got to start a significant part of the season at 2b and ended up w/ 1.9 fWAR over 492 PAs.

At a position where he gets a bonus in WAR, Pena has averaged 2.4 fWAR per 500 PAs over his career.

I don't want Dubon to start at SS. I'm simply using him to point out that replacing Pena with a JAG would not reduce this team much but trading him could add significantly.

 

Yall seem to be betting a hell of a lot on Chas becoming something other than Jason Lane Part 2

 

Chas is a fan favorite around these parts to some.

There should be no sacred cows this off-season though.

 

If Bregman signs elsewhere, that may our best indicator on what option/path we go down. Personally, I think trying to patch that hole will be tough either from internal or external sources. If Alex leaves, then wouldn't it be more prudent to try and retool now versus trying to squeeze the current team's potential one more season?

I'm torn because I do believe chasing a championship is a sacred opportunity, but after last season I'm just not sure we have the ammo to win it all.

If we trade Framber, Tucker, Pressley, etc. can we obtain enough talent to compete in 2026 and beyond? This is why Dana gets paid the big bucks to assess and pursue solutions, but this will certainly be an interesting off-season.

 

I think many of us like Chas for the same reason we liked Tony Kemp and Jack Mayfield. . .

He is the closest thing the Astros have to one of us. He's an everyman who isn't blessed with 60 grade tools and wasn't recruited by every team. He didn't get a million $ bonus to sign on draft day.

He is our fantasy that we could make it if given the chance and we root for our own.

And he is baseball's version of the American Dream.

 

I think the Myers = Marisnick comparison a little more apt (don't have the metrics in front, but I do believe Marisnick was just as good a CF...).

The Astros survived post Marisnick. Sounds like Dana is pushing for Chas over Myers as well based on every single comment he's made on this situation. Ideally, they're going to have to upgrade the OF regardless.

I wish they were better set up in a lot of places (OF, 3B, 1B), but this is what they are... an elite pitching team with lineup questions minus the very very top of the lineup.

 

More unknowns there... and we know this fan base can tolerate/survive a rebuild and come back. Their odds will be better in 2025 with all of those people (maybe not Pressly) vs. any other year even with high level prospects or everyday players in return.

The only unanswerable question is doing a rebuild after 2026 (or in 2025) while paying Altuve $30 million/year and another 3 years of Yordan... and you're not going to go for it?

 

The problem with that is Bregman's agent. Bregman will be advised not to be making any decision early in the off season. Letting all the possible scenarios play out is what he will be advised to do. The only way Bregman signs early enough to be any kind of indicator for the Astros is if he ignores his agent and signs here for the love of playing in Houston. That has not happened yet and that indicates it will probably not happen.

 

Crane has gotten multiple deals done with Boras. Both sides know each other well enough to know what the timing will likely be if there is to be a deal.

 

Yeah, the "Boras hates Astros" thing is way, way overdone.

 

There are teams that right now do not have money for Alex, but as soon as Soto signs, they will.

The teams that miss out on Soto are going to turn to Bregman, Teoscar, Santander, and Adames.

As soon as Soto signs, Alex's market will get a huge boost. It is malpractice by his agent to not wait, unless Alex tells him he only wants to play in Houston. Even then, Boras should want to maximize the offers to leverage and get him the best contract possible.

I would be stunned if Alex signs before Soto.

 

As long as Soto signs soon, that is ok. I don't think we make any real moves until the Bregman saga ends. If we wait too long and he signs elsewhere, we probably miss out on our other targets. I'm not sure it really matters anymore if LA signs Soto. When you can pay a utility man 74/6 years and add a Snell and a Soto to a world champion team, it is turning baseball into what the NBA became and is finally tackling with new 2nd apron rules. At some point, it will become too painful for me to enjoy with LA and NY dominating.

 

Agreed, but with the current state of the Stros there should be no sacred cows. I love Chas, but if there's a chance to upgrade Dana should do it. Same goes with Meyers, Singleton etc... They need 3 bats, Dana knows this and if upgrading means putting Chas or Meyers in a deal to save money and upgrade Dana should make the move.

 

Yes.

And I think instead of waiting for Alex, Dana should be looking to sign 1 3rd tier outfielder and a SP.

Those 2 spots will need to be filled regardless and won't be impacted by Alex signing or not.

Sign a guy like Canha (LF/1b) or Kepler( all 3 OF) who will cost less than $10M and still fit the roster because they can play multiple positions of need, and fit even if a better OF is brought in.

Sign a SP like Lance Lynn or Martin Perez who are proven BOR options who will be cheap and only require a 1 yr commitment. SP insurance is crucial.

Then if Alex signs, you know what budget you have left for another OF and/or 1b.

If Alex does not sign then use that $25-30M towards 3b, 1b, and the final OF spot. That puts Walker, Santander, Adames, and Teoscar back in play as well as a possible trade for a veteran they could not afford if Bregman returned.