Lots of smoke that the Cardinals want a full rebuild. Astros get: C/1B/LF Willson Contreras 3B Nolan Arenado $12M (2025) $8M (2026) Cardinals get: 3B Zach Dezenzo CF Pedro Leon SP Ryan Gusto RP Shawn Dubin Lineup would be: 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez 1B Contreras C Diaz 3B Arenado LF McCormick SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Whitcomb, Singleton Pressly and Caratini would be traded to make financial room. The 7 hole would be a committee/competition between McCormick, Whitcomb, Dubon, and Singleton. Trading for Arenado reminds me a bit of when Houston traded for Brian McCann years ago. Former star who is on the decline but still has a lot of value if you don’t expect too much from him.
Yeah it’s hard to know how much surplus value they have since their injury history gives them such a wide variance between reasonable floor and ceiling estimates.
Sign me up for this, as long as they can get a MLB avg hitting OF in the Pressly/Caratini trades and I think that's doable. How much do you think NA has left and can Contreras play 1B at a MLB avg level defensively?
I think Arenado is definitely on the decline but has some moderate bounce back potential. His 2023 stat cast numbers were in line with his career marks and I think 2024 could have been marred by injury and tinkering. I have an optimist’s view that he could be a 3-4 win player with an above average (wRC+ 110-120) bat for the next 2 seasons. He seems like a good buy-low candidate who will thrive in a deeper, contending lineup where the games matter but the pressure is not so focused on him. I do expect age to hit him by 2027. Contreras is a bigger question. The only way this makes sense is if he can play a good 1B AND a passable LF. That gives him potential to let Houston play him in a way that allows them to mix and match cheap/internal players across 1B and LF to get great offense from the bottom of the lineup. I don’t really have much doubt that Contreras will hit enough to be a fine middle of the order guy for Houston, it’s just whether he can play the positions they need him to play.
Blockbuster hypothetical with the Orioles: Astros get: 3B Coby Mayo CF Cedric Mullins 1B Ryan O’Hearn C Creed Willems Orioles get: SP Framber Valdez RP Ryan Pressly CF Jake Meyers Astros clear some payroll and fill out their lineup. They’d have money to re-sign Kikuchi and maybe even JV. Resulting roster: CF Mullins 2B Altuve DH Alvarez RF Tucker 3B Mayo C Diaz 1B O’Hearn SS Pena LF Heyward Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Singleton, McCormick Rotation: Kikuchi, Brown, Blanco, Garcia, Arrighetti, McCullers Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Scott, Ort, King, Dubin, Whitley
I do not contribute to this thread much but I would like to propose a trade for the Orioles 1st baseman Samuel Basallo & 3rd baseman Joshua Liranzo in exchange for Astros DH Yordan Alvarez. Yordan is Houston's Most valuable player and I feel like those two prospects may not seem like enough but Basallo takes care of our needs at first base for years to come. and I believe Liranzo will move quickly from rookie ball to an extremely valuable major league player by 2027. Yordan is an injury risk that gets a little more risky every day. He is also a nearly full time DH that will be blocking other players that are going to be needing to get at bats from that spot in our not too distant future.
If you are considering trading Yordan you better add 2 other top 100 prospects who are MLB ready or very close and at least another legitimate prospect. With his contract, Yordan is AT LEAST as valuable as Soto was when Washington moved him. #9, #21, and 88 overall prospects + organization #4 and #14. ( Voit for Bell is a wash)
As a blanket rule, it’s not smart to trade a hall of famer in his prime under multiple years of below-market control. Theres almost no chance of getting equal value back in return. In Houston’s case, the only way it makes any realistic sense to trade Yordan is if they are undergoing a full tear down rebuild on par with what they did starting in 2011. Getting Baltimores #2 and #20 prospects is not nearly enough. IF Houston was going to do a total rebuild, Basallo, Honeycutt, and O’Farrell would be my core demand, with requiring at least one other prospect like Stivan Martinez. But it just isn’t realistic and doesn’t make sense.
Silly talk, I literally when I saw your post The Stros need to add more bats like Yordan, not trade them. Plus Yordan's contract is such a positive they won't be trading him for the next 4 years.
So first, thanks for your comments and Snakes comments too. It helps me to better understand how to value Alvarez. My goal here is to find a way to do a fast reset this Winter of the Astros as a team full of young stars without having years of high draft picks. Based upon trading Yordan for some key position players to build on. I like the Guys I mentioned from the Orioles because I believe in their futures. As they are added to the team as rookies they are adding talent, youthful vigor and long term stability without adding financial burdens. I would try to retain Bregman on a short high value contract with an understanding that a coaching spot is open to him (I would gladly replace our current manager with him today but he has too much to contribute as a player right now) whenever he is ready to discuss it. Liranzo will have a chance to replace him at that time. Basallo can take over at first base tomorrow and we will have already replaced a lot of Yordan's hitting. Basallo can also catch a little if needed. Truth is I am not a baseball fan. I am an Astros fan. I do not know much about which other teams have the prospects to warrant trading Alvarez and would love to hear some ideas from you guys. I think rebuilding the line up this way will free up some of our current position players to trade for lower level high ceiling prospects and maybe a pitcher or two. We can pick up whatever we can afford this Winter and maybe stay competitive for a couple of more years. Or do something to set ourselves up for another ten year run. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Cardinals match up very well, except they are Personally Yordan is the last Astro I would trade, followed closely by Brown. However, I understand the rationale and the players who could be brought back would be exciting. My first thought was that you simply undervalued him, but also, the players coming back must be slam dunks. That means highly rated but also as close to MLB as possible. The Astros simply can't trade a guy like Yordan without getting at least 1, and probably more, stars in return. It's terrible management. And even the most talented guys often don't make it; The more minor league experience they have the more sure you can be. I think the Astros SHOULD trade from the MLB roster and should trade stars, but not ones with extremely affordable contracts with several years remaining. Pressly- needs to be traded as he's expensive and no longer fits. Caratini- Is at his max value, a risk for regression, and plays a position that should be half his salary, or less. Chas - Is probably at his least value, but they have too many OF who can only hit LHP and Meyers is cheaper and the better defender. Framber - Would bring a huge return and is likely to walk after the season. There is lots of SP depth, even if much of it has health question marks. Scott- May be a great reliever for the next several years, but has max value now, relief pitchers are notoriously unreliable season to season, and he has no options to send him to AAA if he struggles Martinez, Dubin, Whitley, and/or Ort - Don't have any minor league options remaining and aren't leverage relievers, so it's going to be hard to keep them in MLB all season. May end up DFA'd if not traded this offseason. Dubon- Is very versatile and covers a lot of spots on the bench, but is getting very expensive. How much is ANY bench player worth? Tucker - 99.99999999999% chance the Astros lose him for just a Comp pick after the season. It would be very hard to trade him and not get worse in 2025, but he will bring back a crazy return and 100% the 2026 Astros will be worse if they don't 't trade him. With so many stars still on this roster for 2025, it's not realistic to do a full teardown. But SOME trades should be done to help immediately.
If the Astros are looking to trade a star player away to improve their long term outlook, Framber Valdez would be the one I think makes the most sense. He’s only got one year of control left. He’s going to make a hefty salary that can be used to replace him. He has a high value. Pitchers are always a risk to get hurt. And trading him plays to what appears to still be a strength of the Astros front office: acquiring undervalued pitchers and maximizing their value. If Valdez could bring back a haul similar to what Corbin Burnes brought back to Milwaukee, that’s a significant move. A package of 1 MLB Top 50 prospect, 1 fringe MLB Top 100 prospect, and 1 Org top 10 prospect (or a comp draft pick) would significantly improve the farm system and long term outlook. Something along the lines of: Orioles get: SP Framber Valdez RP Ryan Pressly Astros get: 3B Coby Mayo CF Enrique Bradfield Jr. SS Griff O’Ferrall The Astros then use Framber’s money to sign Kikuchi. They use Pressly’s money to sign somebody like Conforto. Then they use their existing payroll flexibility to sign Walker and a cheaper RP like Neris. The resulting roster: 2B Altuve RF Tucker DH Alvarez 1B Walker C Diaz LF Conforto 3B Mayo SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Singleton, McCormick Rotation: Kikuchi, Brown, Blanco, Garcia, Arrighetti Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Neris, Ort, Scott, Whitley, Dubin, McCullers IL: Javier Optioned: Salazar, Cabbage, Kessinger, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Corona, Leon, Ullola, Gordon, Gusto, France, Murfee, King DFA/non-tendered: Contreras, Hernandez, Martinez, Ortega, Sousa, Urquidy Mayo is an MLB Top 20 prospect by most experts so he might be too much to expect. But he’d be a foundational piece. Bradfield would be among Houston’s top 3 prospects, and O’Ferrall would likely be among their top 5-8 prospects. The farm would go from ranked in the 22-28 range to ranked in the 13-19 range (at least until Mayo graduated). If Houston needed to free up more money, they could dump McCormick and/or Caratini without changing their outlook much.
I believe we have a solid core rotation and from AA on down enough solid pitching prospects to feed the the ML team for the foreseeable future. I would be nervous about trading away Framber any sooner than the middle of 25 because I do not feel too certain of our AAA starters yet. The bullpen is as solid as any with Hader, Pressly (he isn't going anywhere 5&10 no trade), Abreu, Scott, and Murfee. In the line up we have a very high value DH who is very limited defensively and a constant injury risk. A catcher that hits a lot better than he catches, a right fielder for 1 more year only, a declining 2nd baseman who is the face of the franchise & under contract till 2030 but playable for a year, maybe two at second from then on he is a DH or bench bat. A defense first SS who is spread very thin with ageing defenders on both sides of him. Two barely average outfielders in center and left field and two holes on the infield corners.
I agree with much of what you say. The pitching is MUCH further ahead than the position player roster. Therefore, Framber and Pressly make the most sense to trade. As for waiting until the middle of 2025 to trade Framber? I don't like that because 1) whatever talent gets brought in from that deal needs to be here ASAP. 2) IF he is traded before the season his new team can offer him a QO and therefore the Astros get more in return. Maybe it depends on Garcia (and dare I say LMJ's) health. Maybe they feel better if he(they) is 100% healthy and ready during the off season. Ultimately, it doesn't matter because they won't trade him (or Tucker) which is stupid. Depending on the return, the 2025 Astros are very likely not as good after a trade of Framber and/or Tucker. However, if they are not traded the 2026 Astros will absolutely be worse. The smart thing is to trade Framber saving $17-$18M, Pressly, saving $14M, (I actually expect Pressly to be traded and be fine with it), and Caratini saving $6M. $37-38M in savings. The Astros get: A young controllable starter at 1b, 3b, LF, or CF At least 1 other position player who helps in 2025 A young SP capable of being a #4-#6 in 2025. At least 2 other high value prospects. Astros sign Kikuchi for 3-4 yrs to replace Framber. Astros still have money for Bregman, Walker, or another big bat to supplement the lineup. That's what I would do. The Mets and Reds are both very interesting looking at trade returns and would probably be very interested in Framber and maybe others.
I'm pretty sure Pressly would be open to a trade. It would clearly be to a contender needing a closer, as he make no sense for a rebuilding team.
Rays are going to be looking to save money, and are always looking to turn guys into multiple cheaper guys as they get expensive and closer to FA. By all accounts, both Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe will be shopped this offseason. TB will likely look to mitigate their risk by taking multiple MLB ready prospects/young controllable players for each instead of 1 for 1. They almost always win trades, and value prospects differently than most national media outlets or fans (as most front offices do) so we don't know which Astros prospects they like. I think because he hits lefty, and the Astros have very little MLB quality OF depth, that Lowe is a slight priority over Diaz. He can also play 1b and 2b while Diaz is likely 1b only (maybe he can still play 3b?). I would offer TB Whitcomb, Blubaugh, and Whitley for Lowe. All 3 would likely make their 26 man roster and maybe they feel they can coax something extra from Whitley's arm and hit another home run. If the Astros want both, then how about: Dezenzo, Whitley, Whitcomb, Blubaugh, and a guy like Jesus Bastidas who looked like a future star in April and May before hitting a wall (he just feels like a Rays kind of guy) With Diaz and Lowe on board they have time to replace Dezenzo and Whitley. They aren't giving up any of their top 4 prospects, and add 2 big bats for a 2025 World Series run.
