I’ve read mixed reviews. I’ve only seen him play C in person one time and he looked ok, but didn’t make any notable plays one way or the other. I’m no judge of framing and game calling.
I’m not sure how this works so wondering if anybody has the answer. There are a bunch of milb veteran on the AAA roster with 7+ years of experience. Connor Greene, Glenn Otto, Omar Narvaez, Jesus Bastidas, and Chris Gittens should all be free agents, as far as I can tell. But the date has passed where other minor leaguers were declared free agents, so I’m not sure what is going on.
Interesting anecdote while perusing fangraphs. # of prospects with >$800k bonus on Fangraphs’ Prospect Board: Astros: 15 Rangers: 13 Mariners: 15 Angels: 11 Athletics: 16 # of prospects with bonus >$2M: A’s: 11 Mariners: 10 Rangers: 6 Astros: 4 Angels: 2 The point that illustrates to me is that Houston has plenty of 2nd tier talent in their system, possibly even an above average amount (this is reflected in their OF depth on their farm). But what puts them behind is the lack of top level talent, which is where losing 5 draft picks in the last 5 drafts and trading away Drew Gilbert is impacting them and causing their farm to be ranked so low.
As of right now, I would say that Matthews, Baez, Blubaugh, Brito and .maybe Melton are top level talents. Gomez has a chance to get there as well as Janek.
Melton is probably the closest but really all those guys carry too much risk to be considered top level talent. Melton and Matthews have strikeout issues, Baez is limited defensively, Gomez lacks power, and Blubaugh and Brito don’t have the pedigree. Any of them could break out next season and become top level prospects, but for now that group is quintessentially 2nd tier.
The difference is risk. Framber is one of the top SP in all of baseball but nobody thought that to be in his top 25% possible outcomes as he was moving from A ball to AA. All prospects have risks of completely bombing. But true top tier prospects have a better chance of being impact players. Outfielder Dylan Crews is the #1 prospect now. Nobody would be shocked if he never has a 3 WAR season in MLB. That's the nature of prospects. But it would be a surprise and upset. Like Crews, Astros top prospect, Jacob Melton, is a centerfielder who could end up at any of the 3 outfield spots. He could absolutely have a better career than Crews, but it's not better than a 25% outcome. Also, if Melton never has a 3 WAR season, nobody would be shocked or even very surprised. Several Astros prospects COULD become stars. The difference between them and true top tier prospects, is they aren't expected to based on factors like having plus tools AND no minus tools.
Alex Santos II made the Arizona Fall League All-Star team. He tied for the league lead in strikeouts. I wouldn’t have thought this before the AFL, but Santos may warrant protection from the Rule 5 draft now.
It's an interesting problem to have. There is not a lot of room on the 40 man roster, but maybe it allows them to feel better about trading another fringe guy, or adds to his trade value. They probably sent him there hoping this would be the result.
A bunch of minor leaguers reached free agency: 11/04/24 RHP Franny Cobos elected free agency. 11/04/24 RHP Jeremy Molero elected free agency. 11/04/24 RHP Layne Henderson elected free agency. 11/04/24 3B Rolando Espinosa elected free agency. 11/04/24 LHP Julio Robaina elected free agency. 11/04/24 1B Chris Gittens elected free agency. 11/04/24 C Omar Narváez elected free agency. 11/04/24 LHP Parker Mushinski elected free agency. 11/04/24 RHP Conner Greene elected free agency. 11/04/24 Houston Astros sent RHP José Urquidy outright to Sugar Land Space Cowboys. 11/04/24 Houston Astros sent RHP Oliver Ortega outright to Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Molero had elite stuff but couldn’t control it. Robaina looked like a good prospect, not sure what happened there. Interesting that Urquidy and Ortega were not granted free agency; not sure what that means but it’d be nice if Houston could stash Urquidy in AAA.
The date for rosters to be set for the Rule 5 draft this season is November 19 (next Tuesday). Houston’s current 40-man roster is at 38. The Rule 5 roster deadline doesn’t usually spur signings or trades as much as I expect it to, but it surely is a factor if there are moves that are already imminent. Here’s how I breakdown Houston’s rule 5 group for this season: Sure to be added or traded: P Miguel Ullola, P Colton Gordon Moderate risks to be taken: P Rhett Kouba, P Alex Santos II Slight risks: P Aaron Brown, P Misael Tamarez, P Alimber Santa, OF Quincy Hamilton Non-risks: OF Colin Barber, P Ray Gaither, P Jayden Murray, P Jairo Solis, C Miguel Palma, IF Jesus Bastidas, P Brandon Walter, P Cesar Gomez, P Blair Henley, P Cole McDonald, P Railin Perez, P Brady Rodning, P Luis Angel Rodriguez, P Nic Swanson, IF Narbe Cruz, C/1B Luis Encarnacion, IF Jeremy Arocho, OF Zach Daniels, OF Logan Cerny I didn’t include any players who might be rule 5 eligible who have not played above High A ball, but they would not be a risk to be drafted.
I know why you put Colin Barber and Jayden Murray in your non-risk category but they seem like the types that teams would take a flyer on. Barber being a former high-upside prospect with plenty of experience at the AA level. If you (insert random org) thinks there's something left to unlock, it becomes totally worth it. It's very much an easy come/easy go rule 5 pick. Murray is the opposite but similar. Close to the majors and considered to have a solid BOR floor. They get him through this recovery year in the pen and then boom: cheap backend starter for a long time.
They’ve both passed thru the Rule 5 draft before and weren’t chosen, and their stock has only gone down since. They will not be picked unless they’re playing in a winter league and having some insane breakout that I don’t know about.
And more importantly, especially with Murray, if they get chosen then that's one more and better guy the Astros didn't lose. Murray is probably a poor man's J P. France. He may still end up w/ a high floor but has no ceiling to speak of. No upside = no chance of him being taken. Barber is a lefty Corey Julks. Maybe he ends up with an Orlando Palmeiro or even Greg Gross type career but he is most likely the next Ken Ramos.
Not sure I’m on board with those comps. Murray was topping out at 97 when healthy so while he does have a varied arsenal like France, he’s a high ceiling pitcher. Barber is really nothing like Julks. Julks was a 30 HR 20 SB bat in AAA whose defensive value was limited due to bad routes; his arm was fine and there was power in the minors. Barber is just a high ceiling HS draftee whose development went the wrong way; he was a good athlete with a mature approach who everyone assumed would add power and be able to stick in CF. Instead his arm got worse and he never developed power so he’s a light hitting LF only guy. Barber is only 23 and with his injury history it’s hard to know what he can do with a run of good health. He’s not yet a “non-prospect” but he is just about out of runway and barring a big step forward this will be his last year in affiliated ball. Murray could be a minor league roster crunch casualty at any time, but he will either stay healthy and reach the majors or be released this season. Either way, neither guy is in any way a Rule 5 risk at this point. Of course, I could very well be wrong; this time last year I thought Barber might be the best prospect in the system.
Santos II has not been someone I have been high on thus far but his Fall league performance may justify protecting him. He has at the least gained some value as a trade candidate between now and the 19th.
