Great list Snake, agree with most of it. One guy I would have higher and who I am watching closely next year is Anthony Huezo. Recently promoted to High A. I can't recall where, but I saw a quote somewhere recently from someone in the Astros organization calling him a "monster." I tend to put a lot of weight in the random Astros org quotes in national publications about unheralded young guys. It seems like every year there's quotes floating around from Astros player development staff about one or two guys they like that are unnoticed, and those guys tend to pan out.
Huezo struck out in ~50% of his pa this year (almost all in the FCL) so that really tempered my expectations on him. He is a really high upside player and yet another guy with the power/speed combo to be a star if everything breaks right. If his late assignment to Asheville is in anticipation of him playing there to open next season, that is indeed a good sign. But I’m skeptical.
I still remember how exciting it was to have Andújar Cedeño on that Bagwell, Caminiti, Biggio infield. I thought it was going to be the IF of the future! Unfortunately Cedeño didn’t fill in the big shoes that his potential exhibited. He had too many little holes in his game; like how he didn’t know how to slide into a base, I think it was Milo or Brown who was livid on a broadcast because Cedeño botched a slide into a base, and the broadcaster was like how in the world does someone make it to the Major League Baseball and doesn’t know how to slide into a base. He was a likable fella on TV, it’s sad he died so young.
Rough Full season HR/SB paces at current level: Pedro Leon, AAA: 30 HR, 30 SB Jacob Melton, AAA: 20 HR, 40 SB Kenedy Corona, AAA: 15 HR, 30 SB Jesus Bastidas, AAA: 25 HR, 20 SB Brice Matthews, AA: 40 HR, 55 SB Zach Cole, AA: 25 HR, 25 SB Cam Fisher, High A: 30 HR, 20 SB Nehomar Ochoa, A: 15 HR, 25 SB
Luis Encarnacion is with Corpus for the final series of the season; he got the start at 2B and went 1-4 out of the #2 spot in the lineup last night.
He will have to come up with some more power and find a defensive home, but I like him. He only played C for 8 games this season so I assume that ship has sailed except as an emergency option, which definitely lowers his ceiling/value, but he has a quick bat and I think could have a chance to be a 13th position player down the road.
Reminds me some of Luis Gonzalez when he was young. The Astros liked him a lot when they drafted him - looking at his approach and swing, there is a lot to work with there - lets see if he puts it all together.
He’s really turned it up as of late, like seeing the low strikeouts. I think if he hits for average he’s a potential all star with all his other tools.
I've been consistently lower on Melton over the last year, relative to the national publications who pretty consistently have him as the Astros #1 prospect. I've been really skeptical about the hit tool. If he was an elite elite defensive CF like Jake Meyers, that's still an every day CF, but he's not - all I read as he came up is that he's just as likely to end up in a corner spot as he is in CF. However, that evaluation does not take into account the Astros player development working its magic and/or Jacob Melton himself being a determined kid who improved. If it's true that the Astros have reworked Melton's swing and he's now got a 50 hit tool instead of a 40 hit tool, that's an every day CF with star upside even if he's not quite Meyers's level defensively. The same thing happened with George Springer's development and he became a star. So certainly, if Melton continues producing like this, I will be very excited and move him up my personal rankings accordingly.
It might take another season to really solidify, but I feel like this year has seen more positive development in Houston’s season than any I can remember, especially on the position player side. Guys are improving, both their strengths and weaknesses on top of generally being promoted more quickly. Melton maintained his k rates despite moving all the way to AAA in just his 2nd full season. We saw Whitcomb dramatically cut his k rate while maintain his power. Dezenzo reached the majors (after a small dominant sample in AAA) in just his 2nd full season, and that’s after missing half the year due to injury. Kenedy Corona took a step back, but then has maintained his performance after moving up to AAA. Matthews and Cole are crushing AA despite high k rates. Gomez, Ochoa, Jaworsky, and Villarroel held their own in full season ball as teenagers. There’s just a lot of evidence that the current Astros player dev group are really, really good at getting guys to improve and move quickly toward the majors.
Anderson Brito closes out his debut season with a nice outing for Fayetteville: 4.2 IP, H, 2 BB, 4 K Brito finishes 4-2 with a 1.51 ERA in 15 appearances (9 starts; 53.2 IP) between the DSL Blue team, the FCL, and Fayetteville. He allowed 10 runs (9 earned) on 28 hits (4 HR), walked 21, and struck out 82. Opponents hit .152 against him and he turned in a WHIP of 0.91. Cole Hertzler, the Astros' 5th-round pick from this year's draft, made his pro debut tonight and walked three while striking out two over two no-hit innings.
Jose Fleury @ Arkansas: 4 IP, 3 H, BB, 4 K Fleury bounced back well from a tough start to his season and an IL stint that interrupted it. He'd be better served trying to get innings in the AFL rather than trying to play winter ball in the Dominican. He will likely repeat Corpus but his strong performances after returning from the IL might give him an outside shot at Sugar Land.
This also makes his regen, Jancel Villarroel, worth keeping an eye on. Most of Villaroel's appearances this season have been as a catcher, so they think he has a >0% chance of sticking. He's also seen time at 1B, 2B, left field, and even center field, so Villarroel probably has pretty much the exact same profile as Encarnacion with a little more athleticism.
