I have never seen this feature on basketball reference before. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/projections.html I looked at the Rockets for the upcoming season. All are per 36 #s. I couldn't figure out how to imbed so I will summarize & provide the links Alperen Sengun: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sengual01.html 21.6 pts / 10.6 bds / 5.3 dimes / 2.3 stocks / .317 3% / WS(48) .134 Jalen Green: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenja05.html 22.7 pts / 5.3 bds / 4 dimes/ 1.3 stocks / .346 3% / WS(48) .043 Fred VanVleet: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/vanvlfr01.html 17.7 pts / 3.9 bds / 7.3 dimes / 2.2 stocks / .370% 3% / WS(48) .139 Dillon Brooks: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brookdi01.html 15.9 pts / 4.1 bds / 2.4 dines / 1.3 stocks / .345% 3% / WS(48) .053 Steven Adams: No projection because of knee injury Jabari Smith Jr.: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithja05.html 15.8 pts / 9 bds / 1.8 dimes / 1.8 stocks / .358 3% / WS(48) .082 Amen Thompson: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompam01.html 15.9 pts / 10.4 bds / 4.3 dimes / 3 stocks / .213 3% / WS(48) .139 Jeff Green: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenje02.html 14.2 pts / 4.8 bds / 2.1 dimes / 1.2 stocks / .315 3% / WS(48) .096 Jock Landale: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/landajo01.html 14.8 pts / 8.6 bds / 2.9 dimes / 2.1 stocks / .281 3% / WS(48) .134 Jae'Sean Tate: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tateja01.html 12.2 pts / 6.8 bds / 3.1 dimes / 1.9 stocks / .308 3% / WS(48) .077 Aaron Holiday; https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/holidaa01.html 13.9 pts / 3.7 bds / 4 dimes / 1.6 stocks / .388 3% / WS(48) .082 A.J. Griffin: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffaj01.html 15.9 pts / 4.4 bds / 2.1 dimes / 1.4 stocks / .372 3% / WS(48) .048 Tari Eason: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/easonta01.html 16.2 pts / 10.3 bds / 2.1 dimes / 3.1 stocks / .360 35 / WS(48) .091 Cam Whitmore: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whitmca01.html 23.3 pts / 7.5 bds / 1.8 dimes / 1.9 stocks / .374 3% / WS(48) .082 Reed Sheppard: rookie = no NBA stats My projection takeaways: 1) Starters: FVV - Jalen - Cam - Bari (or Tari) - Sengawd 2) Bench order: Amen - Tari (or Bari) - Adams / Landale - Brooks - Holiday / Sheppard - Green - Griffin - Tate 3) Jalen's WS(48) is scary for a starter (as is Brooks so maybe off the bench) 4) Cam & Bari possibly need to share the rock more 5) Amen & Sengawd gotta get those 3% up (but you already knew that)
By those projections, Amen and FVV are tied as the Rockets best player for this season by their WS.48 measure with Sengun really close. Last year, it was Sengun with FVV and Amen really close.
This ain't mlb. Winshares is a pretty poor advanced analytic Just for some perspective on how bad it is, Green had a higher offensive winshares in his sophomore season than Ant during his third season.
That seems like an irrational take? Green will always have the potential for higher scoring simply from the fact that he can go hot from three levels of the court where Sengun can only get "hot" from inside the paint. A consistent Green will score more than Alpi. The month of March for Green is the highest peak a Rocket player has reached since MVP level Harden. Sengun right now has the advantage of consistency and the gap in ppg was like 1 ppg last season. To say it's impossible when Jalen Green is a consistent jump shot away from blowing the doors of Sengun's ppg is kinda insane. I'm not even saying it's a greater than 50% chance Green will average more. He very well could continue being inconsistent. But there is a vast gap between ""no chance" and ""more than likely". The reasonable take is that the chance is somewhere between. But to say it's impossible when they are separated by one ppg is absurd especially considering that one player here out of the two just has significantly more ways to score. If Jalen Green's 3 pt percentage next season is 35% or higher he will probably average more PPG than Sengun. And I'm not even saying that will make him the best player. I'm just saying here is a very realistic route for Green to average more PPG than Sengun next season.
I know projections aren't perfect and win shares isn't good. That said, I do expect FVV, Amen, and Sengun to be really good next year and that those three were really good last year (I would have FVV over Sengun).
By those projections, Jock Landale is clearly 3rd best on WS/48. Gives me a whole lot of confidence in the protections...
@ 36 minutes a game... who knows? Someone pointed out that the Rox were undefeated last year in every game Landale started (not sure if true)... data is data.
Some more projections. Breaks players down into point guards, wings, & post Also says Edy for ROY - Shep obvi https://theresourcenexus.com/category/nba/
