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2023 Season Astros General Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Apr 10, 2023.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This is a very good observation and one of the things the Astros are working with him on. They are doing what they did with Meyers, developing an approach for him that he uses each time he comes up to the plate - to avoid pitchers pitches - right now he swings at them, and usually hits them but they are low percentage outcomes.
     
  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Jake Meyers is having a pretty good year.

    His flyball percentage is up and that has hurt his OBP, as his BABIP is about 30 points lower than last year. However, he is hitting the ball harder than before, and it reflects in his 400 SLG. The defense has been close to elite... he is on pace over 150 games to be a 4-5 WAR player, which is really damn good, and a starting CFer on a contender with good offensive pieces around him. I think that his glove gets overlooked sometimes. I really appreciate Chas McCormick and believe he is a better hitter than Jake, but some of those spectacular looking plays in the field that Chas makes look ho hum when Jake makes them.

    One of the things that the baseball people for the Astros said is that Jake actually has a lot of extra base potential when he gets steady at bats and is comfortable - talked about him hitting 20+ homers and 30+ doubles - which would make him at his peak like a 6 win player - not bad for a kid from Omaha that wasn't really even a good college hitter.
     
  3. SuraGotMadHops

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    I think this is partly for depth while Altuve recovers but I think it is mostly to give Bregman some off days during this 17 day stretch. I feel like we had no actual backup 3rd basemen on the active roster. I always saw Dubon as middle infield/OF only.
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    For this season:
    Here's every play Jake has made that Chas probably doesn't make.
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=42256e32-032f-402b-9d82-c30c366324d9

    Here's every play that Jake has missed that Chas probably makes.
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a33c5c51-fb2a-4338-a749-b5432fad5552
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b156bb3e-4f46-4ad2-a6d4-5110f235ea6a

    Here's the only plays Chas didn't make that Jake has a shot at making. Jake has a good chance at the first one. Not so much on the second one, IMO
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=98d80986-86d2-4ad9-936c-24875254b34d
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=fa601b38-bfdb-41e8-a8ba-2c3aac73d50a

    My guess is that whoever is the better hitter is likely the better overall CF between those 2. I don't know who the better hitter is, and think those 2 are about as close in value at the moment as can be. Jake is younger so he'll likely be better long term.
     
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  5. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I hate the idea of giving Bregman days off now that he is flourishing. But it is a long season and, I'm sure, better in the long run.

    I actually prefer Dubon at 3B than the OF. His reflexes and arm play better there. There is little doubt he is a better infielder than OF.

    Besides, Kessinger may be great but he is not a known quantity yet. Until shows he can play at the MLB level, I prefer Dubon to be the backup 3B.
     
  6. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    Let us give thanks to the Lord, Brother Nook.
     
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  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Are these simply your opinion, or have you factored in metrics such as hang time, direction, distance from CF starting point, CF reaction/range etc. to determine this?

    Unless it has to do with Chas usually starting at a different spot, I don't know of any plays he makes that Jake would not also make.

    According to baseball Savant, Chas usually starts at 314 ft from home plate. Jake starts 317 ft.
     
  8. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Jake's sprint speed is 29.2 ft/sec.

    Chas' is 28.1.

    So Jake would need the ball in the air at least 2.7 seconds to make up those 3 ft on a ball coming in.

    On a long fly ball (over their head) with 5 seconds of hang time, Jake would have a catch radius 8 1/2 ft larger than Chas.

    Theoretically
     
  9. raining threes

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    Wow where did you get those numbers?

    Needing out much, this is assuming that they get the same jump on the ball, which they dont.
     
  10. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I got it from baseball savant and applied basic math.

    And you are right, Chas does get a better jump than Jake because of a better reaction (+1.0 ft vs +0.6 ft. vs Avg MLB CF)

    However Jake has a better "burst" and "route" factor (Chas +0.8 and -0.4 vs Jake 1.4 and 0)

    This means that in addition to extra range Jake gets from sheer speed, he gets an extra 0.6 ft per play from fielding ability.

    Anyway you look at it, the only plays that Chas makes that Jake doesn't (on average) are soft liners in front of them that stay in the air less than 2.7 seconds
     
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  11. raining threes

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    Ok
     
  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    From Baseball Savant. Chas has made every catch that is 3 stars or less except 1 error in 2022. In the charts below, Jake has 1 easy play missed and a 3-star play missed (looks like 4 star in chart). Jake has one wall catch that was really hard that he had to run 92 feet in 5.1 seconds while not injuring himself on the wall. Chas has 1 4-star and one 5-star opportunity that he didn't make not counting wall balls. These 5 plays are somewhat debatable to me. The rest, not really.
    Screenshot 2023-06-05 131914.png Screenshot 2023-06-05 132139.png
     
    #1652 Joe Joe, Jun 5, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2023
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  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Interesting, thanks.
     
  14. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    NOw, when he starts playing him more and he succeeds like his minor league stats, scouts, eye test and expected stats say he will Major and Nick can come puss on my leg and tell me it’s raining by explaining how Dusty did such a good job developing him by easing him in.
    Heads I win, tails you lose.
    It’s absurd.
     
  15. The Juice

    The Juice Member

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    The Astros currently have 3 of the 18 worst hitters in baseball by wxOBA (150 PA min). Corey Julks is in the running for the worst hitter in major league baseball (by the underlying metrics) but continues to start 67% of the team's games. Martin Maldonado is Martin Maldonado. Hilariously, Yainer's been better at blocking, framing, and throwing out baserunners yet gets one out of every five starts at catcher. A few years from now we will probably wonder why we wasted one year of Yainer's service time.I won't even touch the Jose Abreu topic.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. SuraGotMadHops

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    I can't help but notice both Yuli and Mancini are on this list as well. It's like no matter what we do we can't find a first baseman that can hit.
     
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  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Don't forget former Astros or minor leaguers Josh Rojas, Tony Kemp, and Kiki Hernandez.
     
  18. tehG l i d e

    tehG l i d e Member

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    At least you got to touch Megans ass

     
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  19. tehG l i d e

    tehG l i d e Member

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    At least you got to touch Megans ass Hensley

     
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  20. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    Kyle tuckers pregame includes cinnamon toast crunch

     

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