Not excited by any of the day 2 draftees. I think this could easily be one of the worst drafts in Astros history. It seems to rest everything on Matthews getting somewhere close to his ceiling
https://www.baseballamerica.com/sto...iting-power-contact-plots-of-college-hitters/ Here's an interesting article which plots the 61 college hitters within BA's top 200. Brice Matthews and Cam Fisher are essentially right on top of each other. They have nearly the same 90th percentile exit velo (3rd and 5th overall) and the same 72% contact percentage. The big difference is Matthews has a 25% chase rate while Fisher only has a 20%. I think you can takeaway either that Fisher's swing and miss was oversold or Matthews' was undersold. I did see some guy on twitter claiming Matthews' chase rate was 20%, but I'm inclined to trust BA more.
Target 1 Will Gaspiriano OF 2 Tanner Witt P 3 Caden Sorrell OF 4 Liam Peterson P 5 James Ellwanger P 6 Wil Libert P 7 Cam Cozael Ss/2B 8 Jack Pauton C 9. Cameron Flukery P I'm saying we need some of these guys in the rest of this draft
Gaspiriano already looking like he’s sticking w the Longhorns. If that’s the guy they were targeting it might’ve backfired.
There must be some real questions on the severity of Tanner Witt's injury, or somebody would have drafted him by now
No, this won’t be “one of the worst drafts in Astros history”. Dana Brown is the best scout in baseball.
I'm hoping to see some bonuses spread around rather than just trying to give first round money to one guy. There are 65 guys left from mlb's top 250. I'd love to see us end up with 5 of those guys. It's interstitial though we didn't take a single expected over slot guy in the first 10 rounds. I'm sure there were lots of phone calls made last night and this morning trying to see who wants to sign.
Here’s the thing, the MLB draft is such a crapshoot that there’s probably just as good of a chance that this draft is the best one in franchise history as the odds of it being the worst in team history. There’s just no way to know yet. Guys drafted rounds 2 and later turn into studs all the time. Guys who MLB.con and ESPN had ranked much lower than where they wound up being drafted turn into good players all the time. Players who MLB and ESPN rank as the elite prospects turn into busts all the time. Until proven otherwise, I’ll choose to trust Dana Brown who has an impressive and extensive scouting background, and our player development system which is one of the 5 best in baseball.
Agree with the above sentiments. At a certain point, you a) have to take it on faith given Brown's scouting background and b) understand if teams are drafting straight down public lists that means they have really un-innovative scouting departments and weak development departments. The Stros, Dodgers and Rays are looking for the undervalued, unpolished gems.
If my opinion had anything to do with what mlb or espn or any other analyst said I would agree. But senior signs do not turn into studs all the time, and half of the draft so far has been comprised of them. There is a reason every time passed on them, including the Astros
They're not all gonna turn out this way, but look at Joey Loperfido. Senior Sign in the 7th round from Duke in 2021. Got a $72.5k bonus. Currently has a .295/.410/.567 slashline in AA with a 152 wRC+. He'll likely make the show and there's room for a solid utility career and/or starting role for someone. I don't think the Astros would have drafted a bunch of senior signs if they didn't have some intriguing attributes.
You'd probably like at least a couple of hits out of the Day 2 picks, but they won't really make or break a draft. And I agree, most Day 2 senior signs are filler, but this scouting/development staff is always looking for guys who they think they can tap into some potential those guys didn't think they had.
There are quite a few holdovers from the front office that ran the 2021 and 2022 drafts, and the results from those efforts have been extremely encouraging so far: 2021: Hits: McDermott, Hamilton, Arrighetti, Loperfido, Gordon, Kouba, Wagner Misses: Ulloa, Sandle TBD: Whitaker Meh: Stevens, A Brown, Chaidez, Kato, Swanson, Williams, Nieves, Salgado, Linn 2022: Hits: Gilbert, Dezenzo, Melton, Knorr, DeVos, Clifford, Sacco, Borden, Wrobleski, Taylor, Dombroski Misses: None TBD: Gillis Meh: Price, Blubaugh, Cole, Guilfoil, Mancini, Loftin, McGowan, Garcia, Jackson There really shouldn't be any expectations for Day 3 picks unless they are overslot guys; most Day 3 guys won't even make it to AA. Day 2 picks should be expected to, on average, flame out in AA. The vast majority of value comes from the 1st day. Since the primary difference between the front office of those drafts and this one is Dana Brown, who has an excellent track record in the draft, I trust their judgement and expect big things from this class, even though all of the guys they took on Day 2 were guys I'd never heard of and wasn't encouraged by what I read/saw online.
For many teams, day 2 is all about signability and saving money. Then bank the savings and swing for the fences on 1 or 2 high ceiling high schoolers or underclassmen. 1) Make sure you can sign everyone in rds 1-10 * if you sign someone below slot value you get to use the difference later on. If you don't sign someone you lose the entire slot amount. 2) Save as much money as possible by signing them for less than their slot amount. 3) identify players in rds 11+ who you like and make sure you feel good about them signing away from college and that you have enough money to accomplish it. This is where 4 and 5 year seniors come in. They have no leverage and will sign below slot amount. Good teams must balance giving them as little as possible without disrespecting them or being unfair.
Personally I believe that if they had intriguing attributes, they would have already been drafted by somebody. Along with all fans, I hope Loperfido surpasses all projection and becomes a regular in the line-up, but he is anything but a guarantee
