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2023 MLB Draft

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rockets34Legend, Dec 17, 2022.

  1. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Not excited by any of the day 2 draftees. I think this could easily be one of the worst drafts in Astros history. It seems to rest everything on Matthews getting somewhere close to his ceiling
     
  2. The Juice

    The Juice Member

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    https://www.baseballamerica.com/sto...iting-power-contact-plots-of-college-hitters/

    Here's an interesting article which plots the 61 college hitters within BA's top 200. Brice Matthews and Cam Fisher are essentially right on top of each other. They have nearly the same 90th percentile exit velo (3rd and 5th overall) and the same 72% contact percentage. The big difference is Matthews has a 25% chase rate while Fisher only has a 20%. I think you can takeaway either that Fisher's swing and miss was oversold or Matthews' was undersold. I did see some guy on twitter claiming Matthews' chase rate was 20%, but I'm inclined to trust BA more.
     
  3. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Big difference in competition though.
     
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  4. SKYGODZ187

    SKYGODZ187 Member

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    Target

    1 Will Gaspiriano OF
    2 Tanner Witt P
    3 Caden Sorrell OF
    4 Liam Peterson P
    5 James Ellwanger P
    6 Wil Libert P
    7 Cam Cozael Ss/2B
    8 Jack Pauton C
    9. Cameron Flukery P

    I'm saying we need some of these guys in the rest of this draft
     
  5. SWTsig

    SWTsig Contributing Member

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    Gaspiriano already looking like he’s sticking w the Longhorns. If that’s the guy they were targeting it might’ve backfired.
     
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  6. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    There must be some real questions on the severity of Tanner Witt's injury, or somebody would have drafted him by now
     
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No, this won’t be “one of the worst drafts in Astros history”.

    Dana Brown is the best scout in baseball.
     
  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I'm hoping to see some bonuses spread around rather than just trying to give first round money to one guy. There are 65 guys left from mlb's top 250. I'd love to see us end up with 5 of those guys. It's interstitial though we didn't take a single expected over slot guy in the first 10 rounds. I'm sure there were lots of phone calls made last night and this morning trying to see who wants to sign.
     
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  9. Frank_Duhon

    Frank_Duhon Member

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    Based on what?
     
  10. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Here’s the thing, the MLB draft is such a crapshoot that there’s probably just as good of a chance that this draft is the best one in franchise history as the odds of it being the worst in team history. There’s just no way to know yet. Guys drafted rounds 2 and later turn into studs all the time. Guys who MLB.con and ESPN had ranked much lower than where they wound up being drafted turn into good players all the time. Players who MLB and ESPN rank as the elite prospects turn into busts all the time. Until proven otherwise, I’ll choose to trust Dana Brown who has an impressive and extensive scouting background, and our player development system which is one of the 5 best in baseball.
     
  11. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Agree with the above sentiments. At a certain point, you a) have to take it on faith given Brown's scouting background and b) understand if teams are drafting straight down public lists that means they have really un-innovative scouting departments and weak development departments.

    The Stros, Dodgers and Rays are looking for the undervalued, unpolished gems.
     
  12. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    4 senior draftees and one 5th year senior, which have pretty low rates of success
     
    #312 Astrofan59, Jul 11, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2023
  13. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    First time I have heard of of senior signs referred to as "undervalued, unpolished gems"
     
  14. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    If my opinion had anything to do with what mlb or espn or any other analyst said I would agree. But senior signs do not turn into studs all the time, and half of the draft so far has been comprised of them. There is a reason every time passed on them, including the Astros
     
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  15. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    They're not all gonna turn out this way, but look at Joey Loperfido.

    Senior Sign in the 7th round from Duke in 2021. Got a $72.5k bonus.

    Currently has a .295/.410/.567 slashline in AA with a 152 wRC+. He'll likely make the show and there's room for a solid utility career and/or starting role for someone.

    I don't think the Astros would have drafted a bunch of senior signs if they didn't have some intriguing attributes.
     
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  16. Buck Turgidson

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  17. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    You'd probably like at least a couple of hits out of the Day 2 picks, but they won't really make or break a draft. And I agree, most Day 2 senior signs are filler, but this scouting/development staff is always looking for guys who they think they can tap into some potential those guys didn't think they had.
     
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    There are quite a few holdovers from the front office that ran the 2021 and 2022 drafts, and the results from those efforts have been extremely encouraging so far:

    2021:
    Hits: McDermott, Hamilton, Arrighetti, Loperfido, Gordon, Kouba, Wagner
    Misses: Ulloa, Sandle
    TBD: Whitaker
    Meh: Stevens, A Brown, Chaidez, Kato, Swanson, Williams, Nieves, Salgado, Linn

    2022:
    Hits: Gilbert, Dezenzo, Melton, Knorr, DeVos, Clifford, Sacco, Borden, Wrobleski, Taylor, Dombroski
    Misses: None
    TBD: Gillis
    Meh: Price, Blubaugh, Cole, Guilfoil, Mancini, Loftin, McGowan, Garcia, Jackson

    There really shouldn't be any expectations for Day 3 picks unless they are overslot guys; most Day 3 guys won't even make it to AA. Day 2 picks should be expected to, on average, flame out in AA. The vast majority of value comes from the 1st day.

    Since the primary difference between the front office of those drafts and this one is Dana Brown, who has an excellent track record in the draft, I trust their judgement and expect big things from this class, even though all of the guys they took on Day 2 were guys I'd never heard of and wasn't encouraged by what I read/saw online.
     
    #318 Snake Diggit, Jul 11, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2023
    Nook and prospecthugger like this.
  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    For many teams, day 2 is all about signability and saving money. Then bank the savings and swing for the fences on 1 or 2 high ceiling high schoolers or underclassmen.

    1) Make sure you can sign everyone in rds 1-10

    * if you sign someone below slot value you get to use the difference later on. If you don't sign someone you lose the entire slot amount.

    2) Save as much money as possible by signing them for less than their slot amount.

    3) identify players in rds 11+ who you like and make sure you feel good about them signing away from college and that you have enough money to accomplish it.

    This is where 4 and 5 year seniors come in. They have no leverage and will sign below slot amount. Good teams must balance giving them as little as possible without disrespecting them or being unfair.
     
  20. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Personally I believe that if they had intriguing attributes, they would have already been drafted by somebody. Along with all fans, I hope Loperfido surpasses all projection and becomes a regular in the line-up, but he is anything but a guarantee
     

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