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2021 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 7, 2020.

  1. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I feeling dumb as a bag of bricks. Is that LA Dodgers IF/OF Chris Taylor? For how many years?
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yes, Chris Taylor. Hard to predict his market but he will get a good contract. There was an article on MLBTR comparing him to Zobrist. I think he will get 4 or 5 years, but big range in potential AAV. He will be tagged with a QO, he’s past 30, and he probably shouldn’t be counted on as an everyday SS. But he’s got a long track record of very high production and he is very versatile. $50M/4yrs would be a steal so that should be his floor, and I wouldn’t want to pay him more than $90M/5yrs, so something like $110M/5yrs is probably his ceiling.
     
  3. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    A better version of Aledmys Díaz? I could see most teams wanting Taylor's versatility. And the Astros do value versatility.
     
  4. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Agree Stroman is only a good comparison based on raw height... and that is even deceptive because Stroman has long arms which helps him generate some addition velocity and his release point is impacted. Melendez doesn't appear to have long arms, and he still has success.

    Also I have seen a lot of people question his promotion from A+ to AA... but he had some bad luck at A+, and it is a launching pad. I would not read too much into his performance in Ashville... especially if he pitches well in AA.
     
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  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Tyler Whitaker played 3B in the FCL game yesterday.
     
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  6. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
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  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Only 66 pa but Penas AAA numbers are very impressive especially considering he’s coming off a significant injury and long layoff. 150 game pace of 30 HR and 50 SB. 115 wRC+. Getting more and more comfortable with the idea of him being the primary SS from 2022-2028.
     
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  8. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    It would be an amazing thing to see to have a Meyers/ Chas combination replace Springer then the following year see Pena replace Correa(assuming the train keeps rolling). That scenario would just open up so many options and so much payroll flexibility to fill other holes. A bonafide ace, a power hitting/ controllable first baseman, or a dominant relief arm would be my top 3 targets if this were the case.
     
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  9. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    Jonathan Bermudez vs. Albuquerque: 6 IP, H, BB, 8 K
    Diosmerky Taveras vs. Winston-Salem: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 8 K; the two runs he allowed came on a homer.
    Spencer Arrighetti vs. Carolina: 4 IP, H, BB, 5 K; looks like they'll try him out as a starter.

    Shay Whitcomb hit his 22nd home run and C.J. Stubbs had a grand slam (12) in Asheville's 14-4 win.

    Will Wagner drove in four and finished a home run shy of the cycle for the Woodpeckers. Michael Sandle also finished with three hits, two of which were RBI singles.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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  11. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Sad to see the lower minors seasons ending so soon. Seems like after last years lost season they got short shrifted again this season. I am more optimistic at the end of this season than I was at the beginning.
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Since the 4 lower levels' seasons are over, I wrote up 3400 words on the Astros system:

    · OF Yordan Alvarez: On a HoF track if he stays healthy. Grade 65

    · OF Kyle Tucker: Established as a very good player, has MVP upside. Grade 65

    · SP Luis Garcia: Out of the blue rookie showed MoR stuff. Grade 55

    · CF Jake Meyers: he’s been talked about a lot at this point, but obviously he had a massive breakout and he boasts a very high floor/ceiling combo. He will likely fall somewhere between Jake Marisnick and George Springer with AJ Pollock as a good comp. Grade 55.

    · SP Jose Urquidy: injuries and COVID limited him but he still profiles in the SP4 range on a contender. Grade 55

    · RHP Cristian Javier: showed some inconsistency and was not given a steady role. Still has some upside both as a starter and a reliever. Grade 50

    · RHP Bryan Abreu: Next in line to seemingly come out of nowhere, when Strom calls someone a future 200 IP SP, it’s worth listening. Grade 50

    · OF Chas McCormick: solid rookie year; could be fringe regular but is established as a very good 4th OF. Grade 50

    · LHP Blake Taylor: he’s established as a decent middle relief arm but there’s still a bit of upside. Grade 45

    · RHP Brandon Bielak: will fall somewhere between AAAA starter and SP4. Grade 45.

    · RHP Enoli Paredes: ran into walk issues but the stuff is still there; could bust, could be a good setup man. Grade 45

    · RHP Andre Scrubb: Likely an AAAA arm but he could be a bit more. Grade 45

    1. C Korey Lee: Lee had a breakout season prior to getting injured. He has the potential to be a very good everyday catcher, and a good chance of reaching that outcome. He should be on most 2022 Top 100 lists. Grade 55

    2. SS Jeremy Pena: The injury really clouded his picture and this fall will tell us something with how he does in whichever fall/winter league he plays in. Considering his layoff he has looked great in AAA. It is more than possible that he plays the majority of Houston’s SS innings next season. The rumors are all positive, but we lack data. I’d compare him to Willy Adames. Grade 55

    3. SS/OF Pedro Leon: a solid season, although he struck out more than expected. When putting his season into the context of his time off, position switch, and cultural adjustment, I think it was a success. If he hadn’t gotten hurt he might’ve been in Top 100 conversations with good AAA performance in Aug/Sep. He’s the highest upside position player in Houston’s system, and I think his value will probably fall somewhere between Leury Garcia and Mookie Betts. Grade 55

    4. RHP Hunter Brown: More walks than ideal, but the ToR stuff is there. Grade 55

    5. RHP Forrest Whitley: Another lost year makes 4 straight years of downward trajectory, but the ace ceiling still exists and is hard to let go of. Grade 50

    6. RHP Alex Santos II: Still almost all upside but that upside is elite. 6bb/9 ain’t great but teenagers in full season ball shouldn’t be expected to post good ratios. Grade 50

    7. 3B Joe Perez: Breakout season for Perez, who has a very high ceiling due to his raw power and elite arm. He showed good adjustment to AA pitching and I think he compares favorably to JD Davis; a good chance to be an above average everyday corner infielder with a small chance of being a star. Grade 50

    8. OF Tyler Whitaker: It’d be unwise to make any conclusions out of his complex numbers. Click bet his entire draft on Whitaker, and that’s enough for me for now. Has Top 100 potential if he’s assigned to A ball and hits well next season. Early early median outcome comp would Hunter Dozier. Grade 50

    9. RHP Shawn Dubin: My opinion is heavily influenced by the 3 times I’ve seen him pitch in person; his stuff is electric. Grade 50

    10. RHP Jaime Melendez: Huge positive sign that he reached AA at age 19. A good 1st half of 2022 should have him as a midseason Top 100 guy. Grade 50

    11. C/1B Yainer Diaz: Diaz absolutely crushed High A after coming over in the Myles Straw trade. If he starts next season in AA and has anywhere near that same level of success, he will be judged an elite prospect. Grade 45

    12. OF Colin Barber: An injury derailed what very well could have been a breakout season. He was striking out a lot in Asheville but had more than held his own in a league he was younger than. If he had stayed healthy and had success in AA, we’d be looking at a likely Top 100 guy. Breakout candidate for 2022. Grade 45

    13. C Mike Papierski: Will have a long career in the majors as a backup. Odd that someone his size can’t hit for more power, which is the main trait keeping him from profiling as an everyday player. Underrated. Grade 45

    14. RHP Peter Solomon: Struck out a lot of guys in AAA and it’s pretty easy to see him as a good #4 SP. Grade 45

    15. RHP Angel Macuare: Very underrated prospect who reached AA at 21. Should get a lot more attention next season and has MoR ceiling. Grade 45

    16. IF Freudis Nova: His stock is way down, but I think he’s battled injuries while trying to implement a major change in approach. There’s increased bust risk on what was already a risky prospect, but the upside is still there and I trust the Astros development staff. Obviously if Houston removes him from the 40 man that’s a gigantic red flag and will tank his stock in my eyes, but until then I think he’s a huge breakout candidate for 2022. Grade 45

    17. RHP Chayce McDermott: Looked great out of the gate in full season ball. One to watch in 2022. Grade 45

    18. LHP Jonathan Bermudez: Statistically dominant breakout season. At 25 and without a pedigree the hype will be mitigated but looks very likely to contribute in the majors at some point next season. Grade 45

    19. RHP Jairo Solis: Another major injury derailed another potential breakout season. But I suppose the ceiling is still there. I may be overrating him. Grade 45

    20. RHP Tyler Ivey: Stock down after injury derailed his graduate season. Grade 45

    21. OF Ronnie Dawson: A red hot start was erased by a horrible middle of the season. I suspect injuries played a part in his dropoff, and while I am not nearly has high on him as I was in June, I still think he has a good chance to be a solid 4th OF with upside for more. Grade 45

    22. IF Dauri Lorenzo: I was a little disappointed he didn’t get a taste of full season ball along with the other DSL teenagers, but hard to call it a disappointing season. Not much to draw conclusions from in his complex numbers, so we’ll just have to wait until he gets to Fayetteville, which hopefully happens early in 2022. Grade 45

    23. OF Zach Daniels: Pretty disappointing year for one of the highest upside players in Houston’s system who’d gotten a ton of hype over the offseason. Big strikeout problems with not much power to offset it. Huge bust potential and next season will be important for him to reestablish his trajectory. Grade 45

    24. IF Grae Kessinger: Very disappointing season for Kessinger who struck out more than expected and didn’t offset that with added power. That said, AA was a fairly aggressive placement for him so I am still optimistic he can pan out as a good utility guy, but the odds of him being more than that took a dive this year. Grade 40

    25. IF Shay Whitcomb: Stock is up after a very productive season across the lower levels. Strikeout issues are a yellow flag but he has defensive value and can hit, plus I think there might be some physical upside in him. One to watch when he gets to AA. Grade 40

    26. RHP JP France: Made it to AAA and is just about ready to be a middle/long reliever or BoR/spot starter in the majors. Grade 40

    27. RHP Diosmerky Taveras: Throws 100, too many walks. Grade 40

    28. RHP Jojanse Torres: Throws 100, too many walks. Grade 40

    29. RHP Jose Alberto Rivera: Throws 100, too many walks. Grade 40

    30. OF Jordan Brewer: Hugely disappointing year; Brewer was an average hitter in A ball where he was older than most of the league. There’s some leeway warranted given his injury history, but next season may be make or break for him. Very high upside but far bigger bust potential. Grade 40
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    · IF Enmanuel Valdez: Part of the group of guys whose power numbers were likely inflated by playing in Asheville, but he is holding his own in AA now and has a decent chance to be a bench bat backing up 2B/3B. Sleeper.

    · The next potential “where did this guy come from” back end RP or MoR SP: Ronel Blanco, Misael Tamarez, Afredi Jimenez, Manny Ramirez, Julio Robaina. My model especially likes Robaina. All these guys are significant risks to be taken in the Rule 5 draft.

    · OF Jose Siri: Big slash line hid high k rate. Should carve out a good career as a 4th OF, and although it’s incredibly unlikely, if he can just trim the strikeouts a little there’s upside for more (but again, very very little chance of that happening). One of those players who is really exciting to watch.

    · C Luke Berryhill: There was a huge group of college position players who can handle an up the middle position and hit for huge power in High A but had strikeout problems, and Berryhill is on that list. An under the radar prospect given Houston’s insane catching depth. If he hits well in Corpus next season he will project as at least a solid backup with everyday upside.

    · IF Cristian Gonzalez: Put himself on the map with hype out of the complex and holding his own in full season ball at 19, and there is a pretty high ceiling due to his physical upside. But I’m withholding moving him up too high until he puts together a full season of good production in the minors.

    · C Miguel Palma: Teenagers who can hold their own in full season ball have an excellent track record; tack on that he plays an up the middle position and Palma is a firm sleeper.

    · C/2B Cesar Salazar: Very under the radar season, but a solid move up the ladder. Held his own in AA with surprising power from his bat and even got some time in AAA in September. Worth watching next season and decent chance of being a good backup MLB catcher.

    · IF Yohander Martinez: Teenagers who can hold their own in full season ball have an excellent track record; he will likely end up at 2B and not have much speed, so the power that wasn’t there this season will need to show up if he is to be an everyday major leaguer. Sleeper.

    · The next potential BoR/Long Reliever/AAAA SP: Austin Hansen, Brett Conine, Cody Deason, Tyler Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Parker Mushinski, Blair Henley, Jimmy Endersby

    · OF Corey Julks: Broke out in AA after returning from the development list. Probably a 4th OF but has fringe regular upside. There may be more potential here than I’m giving him credit for.

    · OF Alex McKenna: Athletic college hitter who can play CF but has strikeout issues. High ceiling which includes star production with a moderate floor of a AAA/AAAA OF

    · C Scott Manea: easy to ignore 2nd and 3rd tier catchers in this system, but Manea had a very good year. I don’t know much about his defense, but he can hit. Legit Rule 5 risk and has everyday upside but slightly higher than normal bust potential due to his body type.

    · C Nathan Perry: A quiet season but really not bad numbers overall. I am still clinging to Luhnow’s track record with HS draftees and view him as a breakout candidate for next season.

    · LF/1B JJ Matijevic: Narrow margin to be a successful big leaguer since he has no defensive value and will always strikeout quite a bit, but he hits the ball hard and has middle of the order potential.

    · OF Matthew Barefoot: Dominated the lower levels but did it with a very low walk rate and high k rate. That won’t fly in the upper levels or in the majors, but there is a potential for Barefoot to adjust and become a good everyday RF. I am probably too low on him not having him in the Top 30 and he is one to watch closely next season.

    · IF Luis Santana: stock is down but he still held his own in a league he was young for. He also battled injuries and I think it would be too easy to oversell on him. He has a low margin for error because he’ll never have plus power or high defensive value but he still has everyday 2B upside.

    · C CJ Stubbs: Very disappointing year for a prospect who appeared to be poised for a breakout. Instead he flopped in AA and didn’t hit that well after his demotion to Asheville. That said, I think there may have been injury issues, plus he may have been rushed due to other considerations (e.g., Korey Lee needing all the ABs in High A to start the year). Hoping for a rebound next year and still solid upside.

    · 1B/LF Norel Gonzalez: 2021 was a good start. At 27 and with his body his upside is limited but he has 2nd tier MLB DH ceiling.

    · IF Alex De Goti: I think he had nagging injuries most of the season which dampened his numbers. A non-prospect for sure, but worthy of a mention as a AAAA type who could be a Jack Mayfield with less power and less strikeouts.

    · OF Ross Adolph: Another prospect who showed improvement after coming off the development list. A 4th OF type but room for more.

    · OF Marty Costes: Tony Kemp without the base running and defense. Probably a AAAA bat.

    · OF Richi Gonzalez: 50% k rate in the complex is a bad sign. But he did get a lot of offseason hype and was on BA’s Top 30. Check back in 2-3 years.

    · IF Miguelangel Sierra: solid season for Sierra who I wrote off as release fodder prior to the season. If he could get his k rate <30% he would profile as an MLB player because he is still relatively young and is a good defensive player with power. Would not surprise me at all if he carved out a Robel Garcia type career.

    · OF/2B Luis Guerrero: Middling batting line from a versatile athletic player with upside. He walked a lot and showed speed and some defensive versatility. Worth tracking in High A next season.

    · IF JC Correa: Dramatically exceeded my expectations. Upgraded my opinion of his defensive value and contact ability. Still probably has a utility ceiling but went from a non-prospect to on the radar.

    · C Juan Santander: big bonus catching prospect struggled in the complex but that doesn’t mean much. Check back in 2-3 years.

    · OF Justin Dirden: Came out of the gate strong so he is on the radar, but at his age and with his defensive limitations, we can’t pin any hope on him until/unless he gets to AA and hits well.

    · IF CJ Hinojosa: Hard to think of a 26 year old who was released from his former team as a prospect, but I liked what I saw from him this season. Very solid chance at a cup of coffee with a small chance of carving out a decent career as a utility player.

    · IF Hector Nieves: overslot late round HS draft pick showed relatively well in the complex, not that it means much. A long way away but a name to file away for later.

    · C Nerio Rodriguez: Middling numbers but took a step forward by holding his own in full season ball. Probably doesn’t project to reach the majors at this point but he’s still young.

    · IF Deury Carrasco: his reappearance will go unnoticed and he’s probably not factoring into Houston’s long term plans, but he is an interesting prospect; good speed and defense and held his own in High A although the strikeouts were a major issue. Worth watching if they play him every day in AA at some point next season.

    · OF Roilan Machandy: Athletic OF who hit really well in the complex but we won’t know anything until he gets to full season ball.

    · IF David Hensley: Close to a non-prospect, but he can play 6 positions and was an above average hitter in AA this year. Probably tops out as a AAA utility player but his athleticism means there’s still upside. Could end up being a Taylor Jones type with benefit of being able to back up SS and 2B.

    · LHP Colton Gordon: MoR upside if he comes all the way back from injury.

    · RHP Ryan Gusto: One of my breakout candidates for this season who lost the year to injury.


    Overall, the system has taken a big step forward in my eyes. Their top 5 prospects all have elite ceilings with high floors, and each of them should fall in the top 150 prospects in the league; their 2nd tier all have big time breakout potential for next season with Top 100 ceiling talent but with signficant risk. Their C, OF, and P depth is 2nd to none. There are no glaring weaknesses in this farm. With the big league roster profiling as pretty stacked next season and with significant financial flexibility, and the projected international haul and a full complement of draft picks, I think this could be one of the 10 best farms in baseball this time next year.
     
    #1753 Snake Diggit, Sep 20, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2021
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Interesting Non-Prospects:

    · DSL guys with no pedigree who hit well: IF Luis Perez, IF Richel Del Rosario, IF Luis Encarnacion, OF Christopher Morales

    · FCL guys who hit well: OF Omar Diaz, C Freddy Guilamo

    · Fringey International org depth and super lottos: IF Narbe Cruz, OF Kenedy Corona, OF Adonis Giron, IF Leosdani Molina, OF Wilyer Abreu, IF Yeuris Ramirez, C Jose Alvarez, IF Ricardo Balogh, C Fernando Caldera, 1B/LF Victor Mascai, OF Anderson Sanchez, OF Everette Cooper, OF Jesus Liranzo, LF/1B Rainer Rivas

    · Fringey College org depth: C Colton Shaver, OF Michael Sandle, 2B Kobe Kato, 1B/OF Scott Schreiber, IF/OF Bryan Arias, OF Quincy Hamilton, OF Cody Orr, 2B Will Wagner, SS Chad Stevens, OF Joey Loperfido, IF Justin Williams, OF Jaxon Hallmark

    · Fringey Upper level pitchers (relief profile): Nick Hernandez, Seth Martinez, Riley Ferrell, Colin McKee, Felipe Tejada, Michael Horrell, Kyle Serrano, Hunter Peck, Devin Conn, Jonathan Sprinkle, RJ Freure, Layne Henderson, Willy Collado, Tommy Dejuneas, Franny Cobos, Michael Kelly, Kit Scheetz, Jose Bravo

    · Fringey Upper level pitchers (multi-inning profile): Chad Donato, Carson LaRue, Brett Daniels, Matt Ruppenthal, Joe Record, Brandon Lawson, Mark Moclair

    · Lotto Arms (multi-inning profile): Heitor Tokar, Luis Vega, Carlos Calderon, Brayan De Paula, Valente Bellozo, RHP Jose Betances, Jayson Schroeder, Jairo Lopez, Juan Pablo Lopez, Cesar Gomez

    · Lotto Arms (relief profle): Ernesto Jacquez, Garrett Gayle, Elian Rodriguez, Elvis Garcia, Zach Matthews, Yefri Carrillo, Jose Nodal, Kyle Gruller, Janos Meszaros,

    · Late round arms: Aaron Brown, Shea Barry, Adrian Chaidez, Alex Palmer, Bryant Salgado, Chandler Casey, Riley Cabral, Cole McDonald, Danny Cody, Derek West, Rhett Kouba, Nic Swanson, Kevin Dickey

    Non-Prospects (release fodder or not enough info): C Carlos Hurtado, IF Jesus Fernandez, C Ricardo Toro, C Carlos Arcila, IF Yamal Encarnacion, IF Bryan Nolasco, IF Sean Mendoza, OF Chandler Taylor, IF Michael Wielansky, C Alex Holderbach, IF Ronaldo Urdaneta, IF Jose Mendoza, OF Frank Perez, OF Tomas Ramirez, IF AJ Lee, OF Ramiro Rodriguez, IF Josue Payano, OF Denfry De La Cruz, 1B Peter Zimmerman, RHP Nolan Riggs, John Olczak, LHP Carmen Benedetti, RHP Leovanny Rodriguez, LHP Yeremi Ceballos, RHP Bryan Perez, RHP Edinson Martich, RHP Danyuri Guzman, RHP Jherson Pereira, RHP Reimy Beltre, RHP Jeremy Molero, RHP Deylin Miley, RHP Juan De Los Santos, RHP Freilyn De Pena, RHP Marcus Eusebio, RHP Jose Andujar, RHP Brayan Nolasco, RHP Daniel Pacheco, RHP Cesar Rojas, RHP Juan Soto, RHP Darwin Rosario, RHP Miguel Ullola, RHP Elvin Villega, RHP Gerardo Bojorquez, RHP Flaer Gonzalez, RHP Freylin Garcia, RHP Carlos Hiraldo, RHP Cristopher Mezquita, RHP Fabricio Reina, RHP Walter Brockhouse, RHP Kasey Ford, RHP Ray Gaither, RHP Ronny Garcia, RHP Jacob DeLabio, RHP Marshall Hunt, RHP Ian Foggo, RHP Danny Subero, RHP Alimber Santa, LHP Ricardo Leon, RHP Johangel Ramirez, RHP Christian Mejias
     
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  15. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Nice work, @Snake Diggit . Thank you.
     
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  16. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Astros farm being dinged up has helped them accumulate some talent in the minors headed into next season. I'm hoping next season enough top prospects graduate such that the snap shot value of the Astros farm decreases by this time next year even with a good draft.
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    You’re right, it’s possible that all 5 of their best prospects could graduate or be traded within the next year. But for now I don’t expect that; I expect Leon, Lee, and Brown to still be prospect eligible and in the system for another year.

    It’ll be very interesting to see Click’s approach this offseason. He has a lot of resources, which is totally different than last offseason. It wouldn’t shock me to see him actually improve the farm in terms of net value.
     
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  19. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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  20. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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