Already having minor league withdrawals. The big club has wrapped up back-to-back-to-back 100+ loss seasons. On the other hand, it was another banner year in the minor league system. 6 of the 8 affiliates made the playoffs, and all but 1 finished with a winning record. The two clubs that missed out on playoff baseball were the complex-league teams in Kissimmee and the Dominican. Two clubs finished their seasons as champions of their league, while one was a runner-up. The combined record of the Astros' 7 domestic affiliates was 437-329, good for a .570 winning percentage, which led all minor league systems. With the Academy, that record is 476-360, a .569 winning percentage. Which turns out to put them 2nd to the Giants. So, we'll go with .570 then. Here's how each team fared this season. OKC 82-62, 1st in Pacific Coast League American Southern, lost 3-0 to Omaha in PCL American Conference Championship Series Corpus Christi 42-28 1st half, 41-29 2nd half (won both halves), 83-57 overall, 1st in Texas League South; lost 3-2 to San Antonio in Texas League South Division series Lancaster 39-31 1st half, 43-27 2nd half (won both halves), 82-58 overall, 1st in California League South; lost 3-2 to Inland Empire in California League South Division series Quad Cities 38-31 1st half (4th in Midwest League Western), 43-26 2nd half (2nd), 81-57 overall (2nd overall in MWL Western); Midwest League Champions MWL Western Semifinals: Defeated Cedar Rapids 2-0 MWL Western Finals: Defeated Beloit 2-1 MWL Championship: Defeated South Bend 3-0 Tri-City 44-32, 1st in New York-Penn League Stedler Division; New-York Penn League Champions NYPL Semifinals: Defeated Aberdeen 2-0 NYPL Championship: Defeated State College 2-1 Greeneville 38-30, 2nd in Appalachian League West; Appalachian League runner-up Appalachian League West Final: Defeated Kingsport 2-1 Appalachian League Championship: Lost 2-1 to Pulaski GCL 27-33, 3rd in GCL Northeast division DSL 39-31, 3rd in Santo Domingo North division In my next post, I'll be covering the trades that were made.
Best system in the game. Great mix of depth and high impact talent. Great mix of position and pitching prospects. Some may have Minnesota ahead due to Buxton and Sano, but give me the Astros' mix of prospects any day.
Trader Jeff was at it again this year as the Astros' Reconstruction entered its 2nd season. Among the players he acquired this season were 3 pitchers waylaid by Tommy John surgery (and another one who might have had an elbow injury himself), an outfielder who is just scratching the surface of his power potential, a highly-polished righthander, a right-handed reliever who issues walks every once in a blue moon, and a lefty primed for a breakout 2014. December 2: Wilton Lopez and Jose Monzon (PTBNL) traded to Rockies for Alex White and Alex Gillingham For more information, please refer to this thread. Background: White was the 15th overall pick in 2009. He and Drew Pomeranz came to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade with the Indians. During the 2012 season, White split time with AAA Colorado Springs and the Rockies. In the minors, he went 3-4 with a 3.71 ERA in 11 games, all starts. With the Rockies, he didn't fare as well, going 2-9 with a 5.51 ERA in 23 games (20 starts). Gillingham was an 11th-round draft pick in 2011 out of Loyola Marymount. He spent the 2012 season in Low-A with Asheville. In 19 games, all starts, he went 6-8 with a 3.66 ERA, throwing one complete game. In 123 innings, he allowed 122 hits (5 homers), 58 runs (50 earned), walked 28, and struck out 83. Playing in the most extreme hitters' park in the South Atlantic League, he had a 3.29 groundout/flyout ratio (2.44 groundball/flyball ratio) and allowed a 60.5% groundball rate. That groundout/flyout ratio led all of Minor League Baseball last season. Wilton is currently leading the Rockies in appearances. He's actually pitched better in Denver this season and after an up-and-down 1st half, he's been much more consistent. He would most likely be an improvement in the Astros bullpen. Jose Monzon, 21 (22 on December 30), was named as the PTBNL going to Colorado on May 1. In the Astros system, he never advanced past Greeneville. Monzon was said to be a good defender, but his bat never got going. He posted a .250/.338/.367 (.705 OPS) line in the GCL at age 18, but he failed to post a .600 OPS in his other 3 seasons with the Astros. This year, he played 13 games with Tri-City (Northwest League, short-season) before ending the season on the DL. Considering Monzon's lack of production to this point, he might have to convert to pitching to prolong his career, or he may end up getting released. Alex White was in consideration for a spot in the Astros' starting rotation entering Spring Training, but he posted a 7.84 ERA in 7 appearances (6 starts) during the spring, and wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He'll be back in action next season, most likely beginning on rehab at a lower level. Gillingham began the season in Lancaster. He had a solid start sandwiched between 2 tough piggyback appearances to begin the season before he was placed on the DL on April 16. He did not appear again this season. Instead, he spent the rest of the year rehabbing in Kissimmee. Grade: Incomplete. The Alexes didn't get enough game action to accurately judge this trade. December 19: Rob Rasmussen traded to Dodgers for John Ely On the 4th of July last year, Jeff Luhnow suckered the Marlins, who were in a delusion of grandeur that backfired horribly, into acquiring Carlos Lee. Coming to Houston were Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen, who were considered top prospects in a poor Miami system. Well, while Dominguez has become the Astros' starting 3B, Rasmussen only lasted a half-season in the Astros organization before getting traded to his hometown Dodgers before Christmas. He started at AA and did well, but just wasn't very good after his promotion to AAA. Then, on September 1, he was traded again. He's now in the Phillies organization after getting swapped for Michael Young. Ely was named the Pitcher of the Year in the Pacific Coast League in 2012 and was also a candidate for a rotation spot entering the season. He picked up the save for OKC on April 6 after piggybacking off of Jarred Cosart. That would be his only appearance of the 2013 season, as he would undergo Tommy John surgery in April as well. Grade: Incomplete. Can't really go off one appearance to say whether the Astros won or lost this trade... February 4: Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez traded to A's for Chris Carter, Max Stassi, and Brad Peacock For more info, please refer to this thread. Jed Lowrie has played in over 100 games in a season as a pro for just the 2nd time in his career. The first came in 2007, when he played 133 between AA and AAA in the Red Sox system. So, a largely injury-free 2013 has seen him put up a very solid season in Oakland. Fernando Rodriguez underwent Tommy John surgery in March and missed the season. Chris Carter, despite one poster's continual demands to cut him, has been one of the best offensive players on the Astros this season, despite having the 5th-lowest batting average (another inane complaint of said poster) of all players who qualify for their league's batting title. If he can rein in his strikeouts, he could become an absolute terror at the plate. Brad Peacock was originally in the Nationals system before he arrived in Oakland in the Gio Gonzalez deal. Prior to the deal, he was the Nationals' #3 prospect entering the 2012 season, but he lost a bit of his luster as he struggled through that season, although he was still rather highly regarded. Peacock won the #4 spot in the rotation out of Spring Training, but really scuffled to open the season, which led to his demotion to OKC. Something seemed to click for him, as he was excellent during his 2-month stay in the Pacific Coast League. While Peacock been somewhat inconsistent since returning to Houston, the strides that he made in AAA have largely carried over. I expect him to be one of the 5 starters for the Houston Astros next year. Peacock was described by Jeff Luhnow as a guy who could become a #2 starter at the MLB level. Max Stassi was considered to be the A's top prospect at catcher. He has power potential at the plate, but his problem is that he couldn't stay healthy, as he missed time for mainly shoulder issues during his tenure in the Oakland system. Stassi missed the beginning of this season due to a hernia. After rehabbing during extended spring training, he was sent to Corpus. He had a good May, but slumped during June. Then on June 26, he busted out with a 2-homer, 8-RBI night against Springfield that signified the start of an absolutely torrid July. He homered in 5 straight games in mid-July and wound up sending 11 out of the park that month. He made his MLB debut on August 20 in Arlington, where he went 2-3. And, the next night, he got his first RBI in rather painful fashion when Tanner Scheppers nailed him in the face with a mid-90s fastball with the bases loaded. He is currently on the 7-day DL and is currently rehabbing in Kissimmee. It will be interesting to see what's in store for Stassi in the long term, considering the emergence of Jason Castro and the catcher position getting suddenly deep in the system. Grade: B+, borderline A-. All 3 players made it to the majors in some capacity, and they should all play a role in the Astros' Reconstruction and upcoming Revival. March 25: Mike Kvasnicka traded to Twins for Gonzalo Sanudo Mike Kvasnicka was drafted (IIRC, a bit of a reach) by the Astros for his bat, but he never hit better than .260 or slugged greater than .412 in his 3 seasons in the Astros system. He spent the 2013 season at Class A Advanced Fort Myers, where he hit .282/.341/.460 with 9 homers and 40 RBI in 69 games. He was on the shelf for a time, too. Kvasnicka turns 25 in December, so his time is running extremely short. Coming to the Astros organization was Sanudo, who posted some nice numbers in the Gulf Coast League. This was also the beginning of Jeff Luhnow's construction of a Mexican pipeline, which has yielded Gerardo Ramirez, Leo Heras, and Japhet Amador. After all, he is the only Mexican GM in the game. Sanudo's first exposure to the Astros system came when he made 3 appearances with Corpus after being summoned from extended spring training in June. He spent the remainder of the season with the short-season teams and finished 2nd in the system to Travis Ballew with 19 saves in 30 appearances. Sanudo issued a walk in his first appearance with Greeneville on June 23. He did not issue another walk afterwards. He then moved to Tri-City on August 15 and allowed a grand total of 3 hits in 13 innings. He also issued 1 walk as a member of the ValleyCats; that came in his 2nd-to-last regular season appearance on September 1. Sanudo played a pivotal role as the closer of the ValleyCats' NYPL championship team. He's an intriguing relief prospect, because he throws plenty of strikes and rarely issues walks. By the way, 2 of the 4 walks that he issued were intentional. Grade: A. The fact that the Astros even got a half-interesting pitcher for a 24-year-old who hasn't advanced past Class A was a nice win. April 5: Jake Goebbert traded to A's for Travis Blackley Jake Goebbert carved out a nice career in the Astros' system, but the influx of outfielders arriving into the system over the past 3 years limited his upward mobility. He spent the vast majority of this season in AA trolling the Hooks, but hasn't cleared the AAA hurdle. He might be a AAAA guy in the long run. So, he was traded to the A's for Blackley, who proceeded to injure himself in his first bullpen session with the Astros and his time here was rather forgettable, to be honest. He was DFA'd on August 9 and was picked up by Arlington. Grade: D. No real help for both teams, really. April 15: Chris Wallace traded to Indians for Eric Berger Chris Wallace, a Cy-Fair and UH product, hit 20 homers in his first full pro season in 2011 after hitting 10 in his pro debut in 2010. However, he couldn't break through Landon Powell and Carlos Corporan in 2012 and only lasted 1 game this season before getting traded to Cleveland. In the Indians system, the majority of his playing time was in a timeshare in AA and a stint in AAA for about a month. In exchange, the Astros received that mustachioed man above. Not to be confused with the Chron writer who calls himself the Science Guy, Berger had a rough introduction with his new organization, but he clamped down and became one of the Redhawks' most reliable relievers. He also had 3 pretty good spot starts as well. His performance this season could warrant a non-roster invite in the spring. Grade: C-C+. Science Guy could be a LOOGY. June 18: Fernando Martinez traded to Yankees for Charles Basford The Astros took a flyer on a guy who was once a highly-regarded prospect for the Mets. Fernando Martinez's health issues have been well-documented. He tore up AAA last season and earned himself another shot at the Majors. However, F-Mart didn't take full advantage of the opportunity, and his name popped up in the Biogenesis scandal this year, as he scuffled in another tour of OKC. Basford pitched 194 innings in 2 seasons at Samford after transferring from a Florida JUCO. He was a 37th-round pick of the Yankees in the 2012 draft. As a pro, all of his appearances have been in relief. He wound up leading the ValleyCats with 19 appearances and wasn't bad, although he did walk 4.4 per 9 innings. Grade: C. Nothing gained, nothing lost. I'm surprised that Jeff Luhnow got something for a guy who was staring right into a 50-game suspension. Basford seems to be JAG (just a guy), considering that he's 23 and repeating a short-season league. July 2: #2 and #3 international free agent slots traded to Cubs for Ronald Torreyes The two slots carried a combined value of $784,700 (#2 was $468,400, while #3 was $316,300) and gave the Cubs some more cash to continue their spending spree on the international free agent market. Torreyes sprayed hits left and right in the Reds system to the tune of a .364 average. He entered the 2012 season as the #13 prospect in the Reds organization before being traded to the Cubs in a trade involving Sean Marshall. It appears that regression caught him, as he hit .264 and .263 in 2 stops in the Cubs system (with well below-league average BABIPs) before coming to the Astros. With Jio Mier's struggles, he actually spent more time at shortstop than at 2nd in Corpus. Torreyes doesn't walk much, but his strikeout rate has been extremely low, owing to his high contact rates. He shouldn't have to worry about Delino DeShields in Corpus, as he'll be moving to center field in the Arizona Fall League. Torreyes should be the everyday 2B in Corpus next season. Grade: C+, borderline B-. I think given Torreyes' contact ability, he should put up some good numbers in Corpus, which is a pretty favorable park for hitters, next season. July 29: Jose Veras traded to Tigers for Danry Vasquez and a PTBNL, David Paulino David Paulino pic on Flickr To avoid ruffling the photographer's feathers, I'm not posting the actual pic of Paulino, but the Flickr link to it. Veras had been the lone bright spot on the worst bullpen ever. He pitched well in an Astros uniform and got traded to a contender looking for bullpen reinforcements. Vasquez has been part of a huge Venezuelan pipeline for the Tigers. They are one of the few teams with a VSL club. They signed Vasquez for $1.2 million (their record for a Venezuelan) in 2010 and he made his debut in the GCL in 2011. In 2012, he was sent to Low-A, where he looked overmatched. He rebounded and performed well in short-season ball. In a return engagement in West Michigan, Vasquez's power began to seep through. As he continues to fill out his frame, he could have plus power potential at the plate. Vasquez could be one of the youngest position players in the California League in 2014. Paulino, the PTBNL, was revealed last Friday. His older brother, Brenny, is a top prospect in the Tigers system, and he entered the 2012 season as the #6 prospect in the Detroit organization. However, the elder Paulino hasn't pitched since 2011, when he underwent shouder surgery. Brenny is a skinny, projectable righthander who has frontline starter potential. David is a carbon copy of him. Projectable righthander with frontline starter potential. He underwent Tommy John surgery in July. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Paulino was on the 60-day DL in the Gulf Coast League. Last pitched in mid-July.</p>— Jason Beck (@beckjason) <a href="https://twitter.com/beckjason/statuses/378584543131078656">September 13, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Paulino had Tommy John surgery this summer. Power arm when healthy. Astros felt he's worth the risk.</p>— Jason Beck (@beckjason) <a href="https://twitter.com/beckjason/statuses/378588924584534017">September 13, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Grade: B-, which could improve if Paulino is able to make a full recovery and turns into one heck of a lottery ticket. Vasquez could really enjoy playing in the California League next season. We may not see Paulino make his organizational debut until late next season. July 31: Justin Maxwell traded to Royals for Kyle Smith J-Max was claimed off waivers last season and proceeded to lead the Astros in homers and revived his career in the process. Now, he's helping the Royals in their push for the playoffs. Kyle Smith entered the season as the #12 prospect in the Royals system. BA lauded him for his polish and "advanced feel for pitching, solid secondary stuff and an athletic, compact delivery that he repeats well." Despite only 14 starts as a pro, Smith moved to High-A and continued to perform well, a testament to that polish. He was sent to Lancaster, where he did taste some adversity for the first time. However, I think his body of work has been solid and he could be a candidate for the Corpus rotation. Grade: B, borderline B+. Although Maxwell is doing well in KC, he doesn't figure into the Astros' plans for the future. Smith is part of the stockpile of arms that Jeff Luhnow has built up in the minors, and again, given his polish, he may not need much more time before he is deemed ready. July 31: Bud Norris and international free agent slot #4 (#91 overall) traded to Orioles for L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and a competitive balance lottery pick in the 2014 Draft This was the closest thing to a saga regarding an Astros player and his future. Where would Bud end up? Would he head to Boston? Would he be wearing Barves colors? Would he head to Pittsburgh to rejoin Wandy Rodriguez? Would he be heading home to San Francisco? Well, after much speculation and a scratched start in Baltimore, he wound up moving from one clubhouse to the other, and he was formally unveiled as an Oriole against the Astros. The Astros also sent their 4th IFA bonus slot, valued at $213,000, to the Orioles. Jerome Hoes, a DC kid, spent most of his life in the Washington-Baltimore area. In the 2013 BA Prospect Handbook, he was rated #6 in their system and was described as being the Orioles' "best pure hitter." With the Astros, he's sprayed hits everywhere and uses the field very well. I think a starting outfield of Hoes, Springer, and Robbie Grossman would be really nice to see next season. Hader, another Baltimore-area kid, flew under the radar before last year's draft, but the Orioles really did their homework on him, as they closely monitored his progress throughout the spring and got him in the 19th round. A lanky lefty, he has experienced an uptick in velocity since turning pro. On his secondary stuff, Hader also "has the makings of a plus changeup and an average slider." Baseball America also notes that he has a "slurvy curveball" and is a strike-thrower who elicits comparisons to Chris Sale. He'll likely get challenged with an assignment to Lancaster. The Astros also received the Orioles' competitive balance lottery pick in the deal. They'll get the 2nd pick of Round A, which should be in the low-mid 30s. Grade: B+, likely A-. Hader could turn out to be the best player acquired by Luhnow in this period. Hoes should help the Astros in various capacities during Reconstruction. The pick was the cherry on top.
Didn't the Norris trade also net us some compensatory pick after the first round in next year's draft?
Thanks for pointing that out. I knew the Astros got something else in the Bud deal, but it completely slipped my mind. In this post, I will be covering the 2013 international signees. Won't delve in-depth into it, though. Before the 2012 signing period, new rules regarding the international free agent market were enacted in the new collective bargaining agreement. All 30 teams received a bonus pool of $2.9 million that season. In April of this year, it was determined that a team's bonus pool would depend on its record. Naturally, by having the worst record in 2012, the Astros would have the most money available in their bonus pool for the 2013 international signing period: $4,943,700. The money was composed of 4 bonus slots and a base allotment of $700,000. Each team received 4 slots. Again, the Astros got the #1 slot, which is valued at $3,246,000. The other 3 slots they received (31, 61, and 91) carried values of $468,400, $316,300, and $213,000. They traded slots #2 and #3 to the Cubs in exchange for Ronald Torreyes on July 2, and slot #4 went to the Orioles at the trade deadline with Bud Norris for L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader. That leaves the Astros with their #1 slot. The Astros were in the running for Jose Herrera, a Venezuelan who was considered to be the top catcher available for July 2, but they ultimately lost out to the D-Backs, who signed him for around $1 million. Also linked to the Astros was the top Nicaraguan, IF Jesus Lopez. He went to the A's for $950,000. They didn't go quietly, though, as they inked 4 on July 2, and 6 more were announced before July was over. I'm sure there were a few more players signed for a nominal fee. And it appears that the Astros still have money available in their pool, so I would imagine that they'll target a late-blooming 18 or 19-year-old down the road. The 10 players that have been known to sign (again, there are probably a few others who have signed for a small amount) are as follows: IF Joan Mauricio, DR- $600,000 IF Wander Franco, DR- $575,000 IF Wilson Amador, DR- $400,000 SS/C Jonathan Matute, VZ- $245,000 OF Felix Lucas, DR- $225,000 C Jake Bowey, AUS- $40,000 (not counted) C Hayden Timberlake, AUS- $30,000 (not counted) OF Nestor Tejada, VZ- unknown SS/OF Osvaldo Duarte, DR- unknown SS Frankeny Fernandez, DR- unknown The Latin American teens will start off at the Academy in 2014.
2013 Draft Recap Mark Appel was considered to be the favorite for the #1 overall pick in a wide-open 2012 draft. However, the Astros decided to go with Carlos Correa, who produced a fine season in Class A at age 18. Appel wound up getting drafted 8th overall by the Pirates. He spurned them in order to return to Stanford for his senior season, where he was once again the top talent available for 2013. He was knocked around by Rice in his first start of the season, but was simply magnificent the rest of the way, and he fended off challenges from the likes of Kris Bryant, Jonathan Gray, Austin Meadows, and Clint Frazier to have his name called first on June 6. A Houston kid was heading home. A couple of weeks later, Mark Appel signed with the Houston Astros. He began his journey in Tri-City on July 5, and a little over a week later, he moved up to the Quad Cities, where he made 8 starts before being shut down. Appel probably won't be down in the minors for very long. If he starts in Corpus, then I believe he'll get a cameo in Houston at the end of 2014. Andrew Thurman possesses a solid 4-pitch mix and can reach 95 with his fastball. Pitching in one of the top mid-major conferences for college baseball, he improved in each of his 3 years with the Anteaters and eventually became the Astros' 2nd pick. He is another pitcher who could move relatively quickly. I'd say that he would be a mid-rotation type. Kent Emanuel dazzled as a freshman for the Tar Heels and was their Friday starter for 2 years. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but his command and control make up for that. During the NCAA tournament, he was the subject of concern regarding a pitcher's workload after he threw 238 in 3 games. That might have played a (likely major) factor in his lack of innings in his debut, which was spent in Kissimmee. His pitchability and pedigree coming out of one of the top programs in the nation should enable him to be a fast mover. The Astros absolutely loved Tony Kemp, who they drafted in the 5th round. Kemp, the SEC Player of the Year, began the year at Tri-City, where he was their everyday 2B before getting bumped to the Quad Cities, and he reprised that role for the Midwest League champions. He'll likely be the everyday 2B in Lancaster in 2014. Drafted in the 6th round, Jacob Nottingham was the first pick from the high school ranks. He was lured away from a commitment to OU for $300,000. At Redlands, he was named a Baseball America 1st-Team high school All-American after hitting .545 with 7 homers and 31 RBI and added 15 steals. He also doubled as a linebacker. Nottingham has good power potential, and in his debut, he also displayed good patience at the plate. Defensively, he's still raw, but has a good chance to stay behind the plate. Austin Nicely is a projectable lefthander who was given a $610,000 bonus to spurn Virginia, a school that has been able to hold on to most of their recruits. He is raw, so patience is the key. Even more rawer than Nicely is Devonte German, a hulking, 6'5", 240-pound righthander from Reno, Nevada who was drafted in the 11th round. He wanted $300,000 to turn pro, and he got his money minutes before the signing deadline. He was committed to Nevada, and also played tight end in high school. He'll need a lot of instruction, and a lot more patience than Nicely, but the payoff could be huge. Kyle Westwood's 0.81 ERA would have led the NYPL if he had enough innings to qualify. Chris Cotton never started a game in his career at LSU, but the Astros decided to try him out in that role. He pitched 5 perfect innings on July 13 and showed the outstanding control that made him so successful in college, walking 2 (1 intentionally) in 31 innings. Could he turn out to be a Seth Maness-type pitcher? Zach Morton was a groundball machine in his pro debut, as he finished with a 3.03 groundout/airout ratio. Tyler White tore the cover off the ball across the 3 short-season leagues. At 22 going on 23, though, he might not be anything more than an organizational grunt. Then again, the scouting department has seen him about 490934x more than I have. J.D. Osborne couldn't quite put it together at Wofford, but a near-sidearming lefty who touches 95 was too tantalizing to pass up for the Astros. How the 2013 Draft Class Performed 1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dappel-001mar&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 2. Andrew Thurman, RHP, UC-Irvine <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dthurma000and&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 3. Kent Emanuel, LHP, North Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Demanue001ken&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 4. Conrad Gregor, 1B, Vanderbilt <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dgregor001con&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 5. Tony Kemp, 2B, Vanderbilt <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dkemp--000ton&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 6. Jake Nottingham, C, Redlands HS, Redlands, California <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dnottin000jac&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 7. James Ramsay, CF, South Florida <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dramsay001jam&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 8. Jason Martin, CF, Orange Lutheran HS, Orange, California <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>8th rounder Jason Martin (<a href="https://twitter.com/_JM55">@_JM55</a>) played 50 games in the GCL this season and failed to reach base safely via H, BB, or HBP in 8 of them.</p>— Anthony Boyer (@AnthonyBoyerTCB) <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyBoyerTCB/statuses/380740843927121921">September 19, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmartin007jas&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 9. Brian Holberton, C, North Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dholber000bri&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 10. Austin Nicely, LHP, Spotswood HS, Penn Laird, Virginia <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dnicely000aus&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 11. Devonte German, RHP, Bishop Manogue HS, Reno, Nevada <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dgerman000dev&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 12. Chase McDonald, 1B, East Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmcdona006cha&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 13. Kyle Westwood, RHP, North Florida <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dwestwo001kyl&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 14. Chris Cotton, LHP, LSU <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dcotton002chr&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 18. Adam Nelubowich, 3B, Washington State <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dnelubo001ada&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 19. Jake Rodriguez, C, Oregon State <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Drodrig001jak&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 21. Jon Kemmer, LF, Brewton-Parker College <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dkemmer000jon&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 22. Sebastian Kessay, LHP, Scottsdale CC <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dkessay000seb&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 23. Thomas Lindauer, SS, Illinois <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dlindau000tho&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 25. Albert Minnis, LHP, Wichita State <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dminnis001alb&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 26. Austin Chrismon, RHP, Christopher Newport University <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dchrism001wil&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 27. Pat Christensen, RHP, La Salle <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dchrist000pat&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 28. Jordan Mills, LHP, St. Mary's <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmills-000jor&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 29. Randall Fant, LHP, Arkansas <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dfant--001ran&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 30. Jorge Perez, RHP, Seminole State College (Oklahoma) <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dperez-011jor&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 32. Zach Morton, RHP, Northwestern <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmorton000zac&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 33. Tyler White, 3B, Western Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dwhite-002tyl&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 34. Brett Booth, C, Alabama <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dbooth-000bre&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 36. J.D. Osborne, LHP, Wofford <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dosborn000jd-&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 38. Ronnie Mitchell, CF, Dallas Baptist <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmitche003ron&div=div_standard_batting"></script> 39. Juan Carlos Santos, RHP, Arlington Country Day School, Jacksonville <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dsantos004jua&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> 40. Tyler Brunnemann, RHP, Hardin-Simmons <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dbrunne000tyl&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> In addition, the Astros also added 10 undrafted free agents. Troy Scribner and Tanner Mathis are the most intriguing out of this bunch; Scribner absolutely mowed down short-season hitters, while Mathis drew walks at an unreal rate, walking at a 17.8% clip. On the other hand, he only struck out in 5.6% of his plate appearances. Undrafted Free Agents Jack Mayfield, SS/2B, Oklahoma <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmayfie000dav&div=div_standard_batting"></script> Parker Hipp, IF, New Mexico State <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dhipp--000par&div=div_standard_batting"></script> Chris Munnelly, RHP, North Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmunnel000chr&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> Troy Scribner, RHP, Sacred Heart <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dscribn000tro&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> Kevin Ferguson, LHP, Northeastern <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dfergus002kev&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> Ryan Connolly, RHP, Coastal Carolina <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dconnol000rya&div=div_standard_pitching"></script> Tanner Mathis, OF, Ole Miss <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmathis000tan&div=div_standard_batting"></script> Alex Melendez, OF, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy & High School <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dmelend000ale&div=div_standard_batting"></script> Brett Clements, C, Nova Southeastern <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dclemen000bre&div=div_standard_batting"></script> Justin Hess, RHP, Georgia Southern <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fminors%2Fplayer.cgi%3Fid%3Dhess--000jus&div=div_standard_pitching"></script>
Entering the 2013 season, these 30 players were rated as the top prospects in the Houston Astros system by Baseball America. 30. Tyler Heineman 29. Aaron West 28. Carlos Perez 27. Paul Clemens 26. Austin Wates 25. Josh Fields 24. Andrew Aplin 23. Brady Rodgers 22. Chia-Jen Lo 21. Ross Seaton 20. Brett Oberholtzer 19. Rob Rasmussen 18. Brett Phillips 17. Robbie Grossman 16. Adrian Houser 15. Jose Cisnero 14. Asher Wojciechowski 13. Vince Velasquez 12. Jonathan Villar 11. Domingo Santana 10. Nolan Fontana 9. Nick Tropeano 8. Rio Ruiz 7. Jarred Cosart 6. Delino DeShields 5. Mike Foltynewicz 4. Lance McCullers 3. George Springer 2. Jonathan Singleton 1. Carlos Correa Now... Cosart, Villar, Cisnero, Grossman, Oberholtzer, Fields, and Clemens will definitely be graduating off this list. Although Cisnero is short of the rookie cut-off by 6.1 innings, I'm sure that he's been with the Astros for longer than 45 days. Chia-Jen Lo has been with the team for most of the 2nd half, but I think he might end up a few days short at the end of this season. With all the sweeping changes that the system has undergone over the last 2 seasons, there will be new names, and familiar faces in the 2014 Prospect Handbook. Mark Appel occupying one of the top 5 spots is a certainty, in my opinion. Michael Feliz will definitely break in. Teoscar Hernandez, who's been gaining momentum, could slip in, as well. How far will Jonathan Singleton drop, considering his extremely disappointing 2013? Who, in your opinion, are the top 30 prospects in the Houston Astros system now?
Good thoughts. Where do you think Max Stassi fits in? A few of those guys didn't really do much to help their status, like Phillips, Seaton, and Wates. They may stick onto the list, but probably down a bit. Rasmussen is also gone. Obviously, we have a bit of new talent from the trades -- Hader, and Danry Vasquez should definitely be on there, probably Kyle Smith too.
I'll go ahead and take a stab at the top 30 1.Carlos Correa 2.George Springer 3.Mark Appel 4.Mike Foltynewicz 5.Lance McCullers 6.Jonathan Singleton 7.Delino DeShields Jr. 8.Vincent Velasquez 9.Rio Ruiz 10.Michael Feliz 11.Domingo Santana 12.Kyle Smith 13.Josh Hader 14.Max Stassi 15.Nolan Fontana 16.Asher Wojciechowski 17.Andrew Thurman 18.Danry Vasquez 19.Nick Tropeano 20.David Rollins 21.Preston Tucker 22.Matt Duffy 23.David Martinez 24.Jake Buchanan 25.Teoscar Hernandez 26.Tyler Heineman 27.Adrian Houser 28.Chris Lee 29.Kent Emanuel 30.Tyler Brunnemann (had to throw in one sleeper) I think the top 25 or so are gonna be close to this, with some minor difference in order. Oddly I didn't have any trouble until I got to 30 and then i hit a wall trying to find a player that i thought could make a significant MLB impact, so i just started to look for bullpen arms with great K rates. I think the top 8 guys should be in the top 100 prospects.
Andrew Aplin, Carlos Perez & Aaron West stand out to me as omissions. Travis Ballew would be my top bullpen guy. Torreyes, Leo Harris, & Amador could certainly factor in as well.
I thought about Aplin, but his road splits were hard to ignore, a .694 OPS in the cali league isn't good at all, and he's 22 which isn't old, but it isn't young either. Carlos Perez, and Rene Garcia just seem like decent backup catchers, which are a dime a dozen. And Aaron West simply wasn't any good this year. Even taking the Cali league into account a .300 BA is bad. I put him and Brady Rogers in the same boat.
I think you're under rating both Rodgers and West due to the Lancaster effect. Ignore the ERA and the hits allowed; their core peripherals were good. West was at 9.3 k/9 and only 1.3 bb/9 for a 6.59 k:bb ratio. That's terrific. Rodgers was at 8.4 k/9 and 1.8 bb/9 with a strong ground ball rate. In two games in AA and AAA he gave up 1 er in 10 ip with a 10:0 k:bb ratio. Rodgers' FIP in A+ was 3.80. West's was 2.56. They controlled what they could in a frustrating environment. Both are top 20 prospects for me.
As a reference: TCB 2012 Astros Prospect Grades & Rankings Jonathan Singleton Carlos Correa George Springer Delino DeShields, Jr Jarred Cosart Lance McCullers Domingo Santana Nicholas Tropeano Mike Foltynewicz Rio Ruiz Jonathan Villar Ariel Ovando Robbie Grossman Preston Tucker Carlos Perez Nolan Fontana Asher Wojciechowski Joseph Musgrove Vincent Velasquez Kevin Comer Paul Clemens Aaron West Jio Mier Brady Rodgers Brett Phillips Bobby Borchering Andrew Aplin Adrian Houser Brett Oberholtzer Chris Devenski Ross Seaton Rudy Owens Tyler Heineman Austin Wates Marc Krauss Daniel Minor Kenny Long D'Andre Tony Rob Rasmussen Jonathan Meyer Kevin Chapman Telvin Nash Brandon Meredith Jack Armstrong Jason Stoffel Colton Cain Jobduan Morales Matt Duffy Matthew Heidenreich Carlos Quevedo
Aplin also plays good defense and has a great BB:K ratio going for him. The difference in his splits is related to BA, which I don't know how much the Lancaster effect applies (without a corresponding power surge). We had Humberto Quintero starting for us not that long ago. We of all teams should know exactly how hard it can be to find a decent catcher. I don't expect Perez to fall much in terms of his ranking, given that he did okay while basically skipping a level. Aaron West posted a 2.56 FIP and amazing K/BB ratio (6.59). Similar to his dominating debut in Tri-City last year (2.50 FIP and 6.56 K/BB ratio).
I don't get too worked up about Home/Road splits in Lancaster - I think that stuff's really overstated sometimes. Lancaster isn't the only hitter-friendly ballpark in the Cali league (hell, it's not even the most drastic), and I just don't think an outward blowing wind has much of an effect on things like K% and BB%. If a player's ISO and BABIP are drastically different at home, then I might be concerned. But sometimes these BA differences are coming from other things, like a player striking out less at home. That's the kind of thing I chalk up to coincidence more than park factors.
I would put Teoscar closer to the top 15. I would also rather keep Gustave over Houser given the choice between the two, so I would rate him higher.
Hernandez shouldn't be close to the top 15. He's got good potential, and had a good season, but I don't think he's even guaranteed to be in our top 30 (Gustave would not be in the top 30, though I don't think Houser will be either).
Hernandez is easily in the top 30, imo, because he actually has a ceiling of a major league regular unlike most guys in the 20-30 range. I'd have him somewhere in 17-23 or so. As for Gustave, the arm is electric. But he's still in rookie ball, and I'm not ready to put many guys into the top 30 unless they show some signs of success in full season ball. Right now Gustave regularly touches 98+ and shows a slider with good bite, but struggles with command and sometimes throws a flat, 80mph changeup which was getting smashed. If he can develop more consistency with the slider, it sounds like he has a 2 pitch mix that could be major league worthy.
You appear to be speaking in absolutes there. I am assuming that you are just putting forth an opinion. I do believe Hernandez will be in the 15ish range. I have heard his name mentioned in the Top 10 conversation at least once.
