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2010 Salary Cap Projection

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by thacabbage, Feb 18, 2009.

  1. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    "Each July the league projects Basketball Related Income (BRI) and benefits for the upcoming season. They take a defined percentage of projected BRI (see the chart below), subtract projected benefits (about $112 million in 2005-06), and make adjustments based on whether the previous season's BRI was above or below projections. They then divide by the number of NBA teams (except expansion teams in their first two seasons) to arrive at the cap. The salary cap adjusts each year on the first day following the July Moratorium (see question number 90).

    Note that adjusting based on whether the previous season's BRI was above or below projections creates a pattern where the salary cap increases significantly one year, and barely moves (or even decreases) the next. This effect was more pronounced in the previous CBA, where lump-sum payments for such things as local media contracts counted fully in the year in which they were received. The current CBA addressed this problem by mandating that lump-sum payments will be applied evenly across all of the salary cap years covered by a contract. However, adjustments from the previous CBA (such as a $74 million increase in BRI in 04-05 attributable to the Lakers' local cable revenue) created a rebound effect that will last well into the current CBA.
    "

    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q10

    I'm wondering if the projected cap decrease in 2010 could be significant enough to price us out of max free agent range. I'm not sure how much under we are projected to be, but if it's looking close, that could have been part of the motivation for trading for Vince Carter and abandoning the 2010 free agent rebuilding model.

    Also builds a more compelling case to trade McGrady rather than letting his deal expire.
     
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Cabbage you consistently post very interesting threads, hopefully it will not drop off the front page too quickly with all the Tmac and trade noise.

    I think this point you made along with the fact that so many other teams are aiming at 2010 means that it would be a crowded market.

    I hope the Rockets are smarter than that and would rather compete in a lesser talented market but one in which they might be one of the only players.

    It is sort of why I was suggesting the Tmac for Marbury trade earlier in the year, clear Tmac off the books this year...now that is probably dead, but I hope the team can flip his contract this year or next and get some good talent.

    Again...great thread, my hats off to you my friend.

    DD
     
  3. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    every team in the league wants to dump salary for 2010.

    i've been saying this for a year now; lets be the team collecting talent that teams want to move for a lerbron lotto ticket.

    large ending contracts are at an all time high in trade value, and by this time next year their value will go through the roof. lets move ron's contract for something good, then move tmacs deal next year.
     
  4. opticon

    opticon Member

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    I have the same concerns I am shocked that New York has not gotten more offers for Marburys contract its freaking 20 mil coming off the books this year.

    I am worried that what we think we might get for tmacs contract is not as good as we think it will be.

    I think we are going to have to take some good and bad salaries to make the numbers match up if we dont want to just let Tmac walk and get nothing.
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    If the team does not actually have that much cap room they should look to move Tmac and/or Artets now...for players that compliment Yao.

    DD
     

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