2010 Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-42)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;36-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;22-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;36</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-47)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;36</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-47)
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;34-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-5&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;19-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;34</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-49)
&nbsp;5&nbsp;OKC&nbsp;Thieves&nbsp;&nbsp;31-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-50)
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-51)
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;17-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-50)
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-53)
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21-15
10&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;29-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;19-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;29</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-54)
11&nbsp;Grizzlies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;27-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;17-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-55)
12&nbsp;Clippers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21-33&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-9&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-62)
13&nbsp;Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;18-36&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;19</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-64)
14&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-39&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-68)
15&nbsp;Wolves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13-43&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-72)

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

<B>Clinched the #15 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>February 19</B>.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s time for the third annual Magic Number thread. Last year, we went big time with over 110,000 views and an extended run in Sticky status.

I wasn’t sure if I was going to do the thread this year. I have a 27 month old daughter and a 7 month old son, so my free time is a bit curtailed these days. Moreso my wife works 5 nights a week, meaning I get to take care of 2 kids all by myself, which is quite exhausting. I’ve barely been able to watch basketball this season, but Daryl Morey’s latest stroke of genius has me pumped up and ready for the stretch run.

The McGrady saga and trade analysis has been beaten to death in GARM, so I won’t go into details here. I’m just glad to finally have the TMac distraction behind us and can’t wait to see how Kevin Martin fits in with the Rockets. I’m also mighty intrigued by Hill and his potential under the underrated Rockets coaching staff, which has a knack for developing big men (Dorsey being an exception).

Obviously we surged out of the gates and exceeded almost everyone’s expectations. I thought they’d go 47-35, but I thought they’d have more late season success after a slow start. Turns out we’d go ice cold in January. The team has been treading water and slowly sinking, but I think this trade is the shot in the arm they need. Hopefully Martin will provide some offensive spark when the Rockets go through their typical dry spells. Furthermore, it breaks up the offensively-challenged Battier-Ariza-Chucky trio. I’m mighty curious to see how the rotation shakes out, but I’m glad we’ll have a better offensive threat in the starting group. And without saying I can’t wait for Kyle Lowry to get back. Without Carl Freaking Landry, we’re going to need some more punch off the bench.

We have an uphill battle to grab one of the top 8 slots, but I’m optimistic about our chances. I think the team will loosen up now that the deadline is past, and the roster is set. I think we’ve got some good basketball ahead of us, and I think Rick will finely have the offense flowing more to his liking.

So it’s time to bust out the Magic Number chart. I’ve got a new Excel engine in it, and I’ve been running it daily all season for my own benefit. Now it’s time to inflict it on the rest of you.

As in previous years, I’ll post updated after all the games of the day are completed. If the Rockets are playing a game of major significance, I will sometimes post an early edition of the Magic Numbers before I put up the one at the end of the day. I will try to have these up around midnight Pacific time, but unlike previous years I have a lot more on my plate. If the post isn’t up by midnight, be patient. It’s coming soon.

So how do these Magic Numbers work?

Magic Numbers work for 2 team tie-break (multiple team tie-breaks are covered later). If a Magic Number drops to 0, that means the Rockets have a better record over that team and would have home court over them if they met in the playoffs.

Magic Numbers drop in three different ways. If the Rockets win, the Magic Number drops 1 for every other Western Conference team. If a Western Conference team loses, their Magic Number drops 1. If the Rockets clinch a Tie Break (details below) over a team, that team’s Magic Number drops 1.

At the start of the season, all teams started with a Magic Number of 83.

How do 2 team tie breaks work?
If 2 teams are tied (and not part of a multiple team tie break), the way it’s broken down is head-to-head, then division record (if it’s the Grizz, Spurs, Mavs, or Hornets), then conference record. We play most Western Conference teams 4 times, and others 3 times. For the teams we play 3 times, head-to-head decides the tie break.

Last year, we almost had to go the 4th tie break rule, which is record against playoff opponents.

Starting the 2008-2009 season, the NBA implemented a division winner rule. Essentially if you win your division and are tied with another team that didn’t win their division, you win the tie break even if you lost all the other tie breaks. I don’t have confirmation, but this has to be a result of the Rockets nearly getting the #1 seed in 2008 if they had tied wound up in a 3 way tie with the Hornets and Lakers. That would have been ironic because the Rockets would have lost the division to the Hornets but still wound up #1.

What do these columns mean?
H2H – The head-to-head record for the Rockets against the given team.
Games Left – How many games we have left against the given team. Broken out by home (H) and away (A).
H2H TB – The head-to-head tie break. We either have a winning record (W), losing record (L), or are tied (T).
Div – The division record of the Mavs, Spurs, Grizz, and Hornets. All non-division opponents are left blank.
Div TB – The division record tie break. We either have a better division record (W), worse division record (L), or are tied (T). Teams that aren’t in our division have no data.
Conf – The conference record of an opponent.
Conf TB – The conference record tie break. We either have a better conference record (W), worse conference record (L), or are tied (T).
Overall Tiebreak – Denotes if we won the 2 team tie break over a given team. If there’s an * at the end, that means the tie break is final and cannot be changed. If we clinch a tie break over a team, their Magic Number drops 1. If another team clinches a tie break over the Rockets, their Magic Number stays the same.
Magic Number – An opponent’s Magic Number.
Diff – How much the Magic Number changed from the last time I ran an update. The season started with all opponents at 83, so this is what the initial chart shows. The next one will use these Numbers as their base.

For more information, you can read what the NBA has to say: http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html#tbb

How does seeding work?
I hate the NBA playoff seeding rules, but let’s run through the Order of Operations:
1) Pick your 3 division winners. If 2 teams are tied for the division lead, use 2 team tie break rules. If 3 or more teams are tied, use multiple team tie break rules (below).
2) Now take the next 5 best teams in the West. If there is a tie for the 8th spot, use 2 or multiple team tie break rules as applicable.
3) Rank the teams 1-8 based on record. If teams are tied use 2 or multiple team tie breaks to break the tie. Division winners automatically win the tie break over non-division winners.
3) Are all three division winners a top 4 seed? If not, take the lowest seeded division winner and move them up to the #4 seed. Bump the other teams down a spot to make room.
4) Award home court advantage in each round to the team with the best record. If the teams are tied, use 2 team tie breaks. If the tie is between a division winner and a non-division winner, the division winner gets home court. A lower seed can have home court.

How do multiple team tie breaks work?
This scenario came into play last year, and I imagine it will again this year with only 3.5 games separating seeds 5 – 10.

Let’s say 4 teams are tied. I’ll use the almost-happened 4 team tie break that occurred last year between Portland, Houston, San Antonio, and Denver.

Rockets: 2-1 against Blazers, 2-2 against Spurs, 3-1 against Nuggets
Nuggets: 1-3 against Rockets, 2-2 against Blazers, 2-1 against Spurs
Blazers: 1-2 against Rockets, 2-2 against Nuggets, 3-1 against Spurs
Spurs: 2-2 against Rockets, 1-3 against Blazers, 1-2 against Nuggets

So the cumulative totals are:

Rockets: 7-4
Nuggets: 5-6
Blazers: 6-5
Spurs: 4-7

In that bunch the Rockets have the best winning percentage, so they win the tie break. Will order them #1. That leaves the other three teams left. Look at their combined records with the Rockets out of the mix.

Nuggets: 4-3
Blazers: 5-3
Spurs: 2-5

In that bunch, the Blazers win, so they’ll be ranked #2.

Now there are 2 teams left (Spurs and Nuggets), so use 2 team tie break rules. Nuggets won the season series 2-1 over the Spurs, so they get #3, and the Spurs are #4.

So the teams are ranked Rockets, Blazers, Nuggets, Spurs.

However, things changed last year with the division winner rule. This scenario features a pair of division winners so let’s relook at the above example so we can see how to implement with division winners. We’ll use our order of operation and determine the division winners first.

The Rockets win the Southwest division over the Spurs due to a better record against playoff teams (they tied in head-to-head, would have tied in division record, if the Rockets had beaten the #$@#$^ Mavs and had identical conference records). The Nuggets win the Northwest. The Blazers and Nuggets tied head-to-head, but the Nuggets had a better division record.

So the Rockets and Nuggets win their division and automatically trump the non-divison winners. Now apply 2 team tie breaks to the Rockets and Nuggets. Rockets won the season series 3-1, so the Rockets are #1 and the Nuggets #2.

Apply 2 team tie breaks between Spurs and Blazers. Blazers won the season series 3-1 so they’re #3, and the Spurs #4.

So we get a different ranking of Rockets, Nuggets, Blazers, Spurs with this new rule.

I think that’s a pretty thorough rundown of the playoff seeding rules, and I’m pretty sure the NBA didn’t change anything.

I look forward to some fun playoff talk and game analysis. Please, as always, let’s keep this a non-tanking zone. There are threads to talk about the merits of tanking, but this is not one of them.

The Kevin Martin Debut
The Rockets host the Pacers in the debut of the newest Rockets. I’m mighty intrigued to see the starting lineup and how Martin looks with the rest of the squad. I’m glad he’s already got time under Rick’s system, which will hopefully help him acclimate quicker.

Also on tap for Saturday: Thieves at Knicks, Heat at Mavs, Kings at Clippers

 

I know. It's hard to believe another trading deadline has come and gone.

I probably should have covered this in the opening post, but I'm a Rocket fan who has lived in Seattle the past 6 years. While I had no affinity for the Sonics, Seattle got screwed by Stern, Bennet, Schultz and the NBA (except you Paul Allen and Mark Cuban) when the team moved to OKC. Bill Simmons calls them the Zombie Sonics or The Team Who Can't Be Named. I call them the Thieves, which seems more polite than Thieving Bastages. I'll probably continue to do so until Seattle gets another team. It pains me to see them in the Playoff race, but I will cheer like crazy when Durant goes to a bigger market.

 

6-8. I'm going to have a full State of the Race post up tomorrow (11 teams to cover this year instead of the usual 9). I was hoping to get it written this afternoon, but the kids' naptime was too damn short.

I really want to take a detailed look at the remaining schedules for the Blazers, Spurs, Suns, and Thieves.