People have had some time to learn more about the candidates, and the primaries are getting closer, so I decided to start this poll over fresh with the top remaining candidates. Where do you stand now, and has your vote changed in the last 9 months? Please only vote in this poll if you plan on voting Democrat in the coming election.
The Republican thread has more "viable" (okay, I shuddered typing that word) options and is a little more difficult to call. When you factor in the whole Texans-voting-for-a-Texan factor (Ron Paul), that makes it an even murkier thread. I think that part of the reason for the quiet is that this one is really a two-candidate race and has been for a while. Most people have their minds set on one vs. the other.
At this point, the Dem primary looks pretty boring unless Edwards drops out and his people go and support Obama. Hillary has solid national leads and with all the primaries bunched up so close, it will be hard for a strong showing in Iowa or South Carolina to change anything. With California, Florida, Michigan, etc super early, winning some small primaries probably won't be enough to change momentum. As much as people complain about wanting to change how things are done, at the end of the day, both parties tend to vote for the establishment types, unfortunately. The GOP primary looks a lot more interesting right now with Guiliani trailing in all the early states but dominating the big states in that second wave.
Sad but true. I will admit Hillary has been good in the debates, and is running an above average campaign. I don't believe any of her answers though, and it seems like plenty of others feel the same, yet she's the establishment candidate, and her establishment seems to be making everyone fall in line.
I disagree. Obviously Hillary's the presumptive nominee now, but I think the compressed calendar makes it a lot easier to imagine someone busting out if they can beat her in Iowa. Especially if it's Obama. Edwards led in Iowa for a long time and he's been camped out there forever, so if he wins maybe it's not such a big deal. But if Obama wins there (or someone else), that could be enough to really change things up. And if someone other than Hillary was to get some momentum out of Iowa the calendar would leave little time to react to it. Of course, Hillary's the favorite in Iowa now and if she wins there I think it's over. For the same reasons, I think Romney's leads in Iowa and NH mean a lot more than Giuliani's leads nationally.
I'm a member of the Democratic Party, and I simply don't know who I'm going to support. I was an early fan of Obama, but his performance in the debates hasn't done a lot for me. Frankly, the person I've enjoyed the most (enjoy not necessarily translating into active support) has been Biden, and he has his own baggage. Some pundit recently said he was running for Secretary of State. Well, I think he would be a good one. Clinton has her own baggage, but some pluses to go with her luggage, plus number one being Bill, and I'm a big fan of President Clinton. Edwards? I voted for him in the last primary, but I won't this time. Can't really get past his lackluster performance in '04. Kerry rightly gets the blame, but Edwards didn't set the world on fire, either. I like Richardson, and would vote for him, quite possibly, if he can work his way up in the polls. I'd like to see Gore enter the race, but that isn't likely. The other candidates? Someone will have to remind me who they are. D&D. Impeach Mr. Bankrupting America.
My concern is that people don't just change their vote because someone won in Iowa and NH. They are simply just willing to take another look. But in the two weeks between NH and the big primaries, there's just not enough time for Obama or whomever to get that message out in the 23 states that vote on Feb 5. Iowa does make more sense since you get about 20 days or so, but anything else would be tough in my opinion. And for many of those days, you have to be focused on NH, Nevada, and South Carolina (maybe Florida too). You really have to sweep or be very competitive in all those states and then you have 1 week to cover 23 more states. It makes it absurdly difficult, I think.
I don't understand, every time, why is those media biased favorite almost get the vote from the normal people? Mrs. Clinton? You gotaa kiding me. Obama? What? You guys that media brain washout.
I have to agree with Batman - it's very difficult to overestimate the impact that the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, in particular, will have. I think people DO change their votes based on the results, although that may not be a conscious thing. National polling numbers, I believe, include a significant chunk of people whose responses are best characterized as, "Huh? Oh, umm... Hillary, I guess, isn't she supposed to win?" And those voters, who are not paying particular attention right now, are likely to be swayed in large numbers by winners of Iowa and/or New Hampshire.
