#2 seed is all in the hands of San Diego and Cincinnati.

Ugh. It amazes me how many professional writers can't grasp basic tiebreaker procedures. If the Texans are tied with the Patriots, it means New England lost at least one of its final two games (Miami/Buffalo). That would mean the Texans win the tiebreaker based on having a superior conference record (the two teams are tied, now), and subsequent tiebreakers such as common games/strength of victory would be irrelevant. Not that hard, PFT.

 

This is incorrect... If NE/HOU/BAL end up tied, Houston gets the #1 based upon the Conference Record tiebreaker. NE and BAL each would have 3 conference losses and HOU would just have 2.

 

Again, this too is incorrect because we would own the Conference Record tiebreaker on NE if we both finish at 12-4.

 

Assuming that we finish 12-4, the scenarios for us are simple at this point:

We get the #1 overall seed if NE loses 1 of their final two games (vs. MIA, vs. BUF).

If NE finishes at 13-3 then:

We get the #2 overall seed if BAL loses 1 of thier final two games (vs. CLE, @ CIN)

 

Yes, and averaged 35 themselves and won 6 of those 7 games. Meanwhile, the Texans couldn't manage more than 13 against Carolina, one of the worst defenses in football. Again, what are you seeing from TJ Yates that makes you think he can take advantage of a bad defense?

We're not going to beat either team - but I'd wager they have a much greater chance of catching "bad" Joe Flacco and playing a game similar to our first meeting (which was just 16-14 to start the 4Q) than they do getting into a shootout with Tom Brady.

 

This is exactly how I feel about it... We could play an amazing game, but if Brady has the ball with 40+ seconds left you can bet that they will win.

As for Baltimore, I can't stand their field, it's too slippery. Arian had problems with his downhill cuts in the first game.

Both Foxboro and Baltimore would be really tough places to play, but too think that we have a better chance in a revenge game in Baltimore. Too bad that in order to make the Super Bowl we might have to play in both places...

 

This is incorrect.... If NE/BAL/HOU all finish at 12-4, the relevant tiebreaker is Conference Record, which we own, thus giving us the #1 seed. You can see the appropriate tiebreakers here at the bottom of this post: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=6466516#post6466516

The two scenarios are the ones that I posted above:

 

Baltimore beat us head-to-head. No way we own a tiebreaker over them.

 

Great breakdown on chron.com today on the various scenarios: link

 

Incorrect. Read the link you cited. If HOU/NE/BAL all finish 12-4, the Texans get the #1 seed because of conference record. Head to head is only applicable if one team has defeated each of the others or if one team has lost to each of the others. Since the Patriots didn't play either Baltimore or the Texans, head-to-head is thrown out. It goes to the next line, which is conference record... and the Texans would have both of them beat, in that scenario.

 

head-to-head is thrown out??? That's freaking nuts. Even though it helps my team, that's still just nuts.

 

Apparently 3 way tie breaker is different. I started hearing a few weeks ago that at 13-3 the Texans would be a 3rd seed in a three way tie but at 12-4 we are #1 if our loss is out of conference and the other two teams loss was in the AFC. So, go Miami or Buffalo, but not both. If NE loses both (highly unlikely I know) and Baltimore wins their games then we lose that 3 way tie breaker advantage.

 

You're cherry picking with one bad game. The Texans put up 20 and 410 yards the previous week against a good Cincinnati defense, and would've had 30 if not for a Tate fumble on the 1-yard line and a missed kick from Rackers.

And if you're going to put that much weight on individual games, the Patriots had extremely comparable offenses in 2009 and 2010 that ended up scoring 14 and 21 points in home playoff losses (the latter would've also been 14, if not for a garbage-time TD against the Jets' prevent D).

To me, the foundation of the Texans - the one thing I trust more than anything else - is their offensive line and the ability to run the football with Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Yes, more than the defense. I want playoff matchups that will allow the Texans to play to their strengths.

 

whoops; better pray Brisiel (sp?) and his leg get back strong, and that Foster finds a way to sneak some pine tar on his hands.

 

I thought Caldwell looked pretty decent on Sunday; don't forget he and Brisiel were basically co-starters a year ago. Foster ran 16 times for 109, team averaged six yards per carry. It was a good outing for the run game; the team just dug too much of an first-half hole to use it with consistency. Of course, Carolina is No. 24 in run defense, so that throws a bit of cold water on it. From Pro Football Focus:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/12/20/re-focused-panthers-texans-week-15/

The fumbling issue I'm worried about is Tate. The Foster fumble against Jacksonville was a fluke - Andre actually knocked it out before Arian even thought about tucking it away. This week's fumble hurt, but he doesn't have much of a history. Tate, on the other hand, has had quite a few considering his relative carries, many of which were almost unforced. I'm assuming Gary has been all over him about it.

The running game in the NFL is tricky in the sense that game situations can make its effectiveness hard to gauge. For example, in that stretch where we dominated every week, the YPC average usually didn't look that impressive... only because the defense knew that's what we would do for at least half the game. Come playoff time and against a competent opponent, though, I think that's still the greatest relative strength of the Texans.

 

If NE loses 2 games and Baltimore wins their games then we would not get the #1 seed, Baltimore would since we would be tied with them and they get the tie breaker if it's just us vs. them. NE just needs to lose one game, that way there is a 3 way tie.