2 Cap Questions...any cap experts please answer.

rf34,

I am not one of the experts, but will take a shot at it.

1. IF HE SIGNS the offer sheet from another team for more money, he is gone.

2. If Seattle matches the Rocket offer sheet, Lewis stays in Seattle.

That is my take on it and hope that I got it right.

Mango

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Im not an expert either but what Mango is saying is right. Rashard is not an "unrestricted" free agent, but rather a "restricted" free agent. No matter what any team offers Rashard, if the Sonics match it he has to stay there. As for your first questino Mobley can certainly stay with us for less money. Its all up to him.

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With restricted free agents, nothing is an official offer until the team and the player sign an offer sheet. Once the offer sheet is signed, then the clock starts ticking for players current team to match the offer.

So, let's say that the Clippers are willing to pay Mobley $9M/year, but Mobley doesn't want to play there. Then he just doesn't sign their offer sheet and there's no official offer.

But, if Mobley does sign an offer sheet with another team and it's for more than the Rockets can offer, then he's gone.

Once the offer sheet is signed, that player is locked into the terms of that offer sheet for their next contract. The only thing that can change is the team that owns the contract. For example, last off season SA signed Tyrone Nesby to an offer sheet for their $2.7M medical exception (for S. Elliott). The Clippers matched the offer, so Nesby still got $2.7 per year/4 year deal, but it's with the Clippers, not the Spurs.

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[This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 21, 2000).]

[This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 21, 2000).]

 

Another question while we're at it:

We can offer around $4.5 mil, max, from what I understand. Say another team offers 5-6 million for him and he takes it. What is the status of his bird rights? Is he still an early bird for that team, or do they have to start the whole 3-year thing over again like Shandon is with us? Would all of his 5-6 million salary count against that team's cap?


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If Mobley signs as a free agent with another team, then his Bird rights are gone. The only way he retains his Bird rights is if the Rockets trade him.

In every situation, all money counts against the cap. There are exceptions that allow you to exceed the cap, but all salary still counts against the cap.

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[This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 21, 2000).]

[This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 21, 2000).]

[This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 21, 2000).]

 

Thanks aelliott.

And now THE FINAL QUESTION:

Is there a team out there willing to spend over $4.5 million on Mobley and have it all count against the cap?

I'd say it's possible, but unlikely. I think a completely proven commodity like Jalen Rose could fetch around 5 mil if he tested the market. Mobley will be worth that kind of money, but not until he's more of a veteran. I think the Rockets would pay 4 mil if that's what it would take to keep him.

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Actually, If Duncan and Hill resign with their current teams, then there's going to be several teams with money to burn. I don't think Chicago or Orlando would think twice about giving Mobley that kind of money.

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I agree A.


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"Let me get this straight .... we pay him $4.5 million dollars a year to play 82 games right? And, the other guy we pay $6 or $7 Million a year to stop the other team from scoring and maybe to score once in a while too!" ......... Popeye's darling sweetpea attempting to figure out WizBang and CaveInTo's role on the Rockets.

 

RF34,

Thanks for posting this question. It is my whole reasoning behind not even making Mobley a restricted free agent.

As I already tried to attempt to explain with Aelliott, it is not a good thing to allow another team a shot at giving Mobley an offer before you can. Much of my reasoning is based on fundamental principals of negotiating price (Auction Theory).

Here's the argument for not even submitting a "qualifying offer", thus losing first right of refusal and making Mobley an unrestricted free agent.

1. The qualifying offer is restricted to 125% of previous salary or $150K over minimum. Both are equally pitiful offers, which Mobley simply cannot accept.

2. Mobley will have to sign another offer sheet to allow the Rockets to raise their offer. This is because #1 is pitiful.

We cannot allow another team to make an open bid in this manner!!! It is like listing Mobley at eBay with a pitiful starting bid, and not enough money to compete on the open market.

Auction Theory and Why You Foresake First Rights
1. The Rockets want the first *real* offer on Mobley. That doesn't happen above, because our qualifying offer has a pitiful ceiling,

2. While other teams can still outbid us, we don't want them to go $1 over our max and effectively force Mobley's decision.

3. If other teams only offer money above the Middle Class, forget about negotiating a Shandon deal with Cat for 1 year.

Auction Theory and Why Mobley and his Agent wants Unrestriction

1. If Mobley wants to stay in Houston, and maximize his pay that Houston can afford, he may not get that bid in restricted bidding. Other teams may start the bidding at $1 over Houston's max, thinking Houston will do First Right of Refusal on any bid below that.

2. Houston is the only team that can give him $8.5m for 2 yrs and renegotiation under Big Bird.

3. Houston is the only team that can give him a Middle Class for one year and Big Bird next year.

4. Mobley can get more money over time signing with Houston this year, mainly because bidding wars work best when your current team can actually bid all the way to the maximum, (this is Auction Theory)

These reasons all add up to foresaking First Right of Refusal and leaving him unrestricted.

My prediction: Mobley will be an unrestricted free agent and sign for $8.5m for two years with the Rockets. I have no worries about him staying. If he wants to take a Shandon contract for one year, we might even renounce him down to $0 before signing him, but only if we believe we can make further cap room maneuvers for other free agents.

Remember, the Clutch Extra article said to expect some "Whoa's" in the summer.



[This message has been edited by heypartner (edited April 21, 2000).]

 

RF34,

After re-reading your question, let me re-iterate #1 in my post above. Our qualifying offer necessary to make him a restricted FA is defined by the CBA to be:

$535,000

We cannot raise this bid until Mobley signs another offer sheet. If we do this, we risk seeing offers only being tendered at $1 above our max bid. Mobley is gone in that scenario, because he is simply not signing for the above amount. If he did, his son would have a fool for a father.


NOTE: Fundamentally all these reasons apply to Rashard staying in Seattle. The 2-yr minimum contract for a 2nd round player who excels make restriction somewhat useless in IMO. The only difference is Mobley might want to stay in Houston more than Lewis in Seattle.

[This message has been edited by heypartner (edited April 21, 2000).]

 

I was thinking we can only offer the Early Bird to him this offseason. And that figure was 3.5 per year (likely 2 years). If we can offer 4.5 million next year, than I would say our chances to keep him are above 70%.

It is not like Duncan and Hill are the only big time free agents out there. You have Jones, McGrady, Kukoc, Rose, R Miller, Mason, D Robinson, B Grant, Taylor, J. Smith & T. Hardaway. You also have a second group I would call similarly valued as Mobley in Mercer, D. Anderson, Croshere, T. Thomas, R. Lewis & Abudl-Wahad.

As for teams with money to burn, I think there is only 2--Chicago and Orlando. There might be another two teams in entire league even under the cap, probably one is the Clippers.

Because of the wealth of big time FA's and the few teams under the cap, if there ever was a good year to have a player of Mobley's caliber as a free agent, this a real good one. There are a ton of bigger stars and more excellent prospects roughly equivalent to Mobley out there. The Early Bird and Bird rights give us a tremendous advantage toward re-signing Mobley.

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I don't think you are hearing me:

Give me one reason why we should restrict him. *All* unrestricted scenarios allow for us to compete in your restricted scenario.

But if there is one team out there willing to pay $1 over our max, Mobley IS GONE in all and every restricted scenario. Don't tell me I shouldn't worry. I don't right long posts like that without passionate reasons.

Let's just leave at this: My recommendation and prediction is we will not make him a qualifying offer, because it can only hurt us. Anyone that thinks I'm not onto something here can please explain to me the purpose of making a unacceptable $535,000 offer when you don't get to make the next bid!!!

 

That's cool...i've been thinking about Mobes for quite awhile, and done my leg work. It seemed confusing to me early on too.

About unrestriction risking losing Mobes to a playoff contender with Middle Class exception and a starter role like Shandon, here's why that doesn't work:

1. Mobes makes much more money in his career if he signs that Middle Class for one year in Houston and continues to prosper, like he is, followed by a Full Bird negotiation season. Clearly, Shandon wasn't going to prosper significantly more if he had stayed in Utah, so his value never really was going to appreciate there. His agent recommended he leave for a starter role and start his Full Bird countdown over again while he was still young.

2. If Mobes wants to maximize money starting this summer, he signs an $8.5 Early Bird for 2 years:

Both situations are what any good agent would recommend to Mobley. Forget that the Rockets may or may not want to make a qualifying offer, I contend Mobley does not want to sign one; because under fundamental price negotiation tactics, his agent can get him top dollar only when his current team can bid all the way up to the maximum right along with the competitors. Thus, he wants Full Bird status as soon as possible.


[This message has been edited by heypartner (edited April 21, 2000).]