2/7/10

starting with a report on the tennessee primary from a clark supporter. of course, it may all be moot after today if kerry does really well:
http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/archives/000185.html
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Tennessee Democratic Primary

Interstate 40 rolls east out of Asheville NC down through the Smoky Mountains like a winding river towards Knoxville, across the Cumberland Plateau to Nashville before leveling out for a long stretch of lonesome (with apologies to Patti Loveless and George Jones) to Memphis. Along the way, it passes through one of the most diverse and puzzling political climates to be found in these United States.

Puzzling, at least, to those trying to handicap an election.

East Tennessee is predominately Republican (or Libertarian or Independent), owing to the fierce independent streak of us hardscrabble hillbillies and bootleggers. Yet despite our smaller-government GOP demographic, we are almost solely dependent on government jobs at U.T., TVA, and Oak Ridge, making ours the lowest unemployment in the state (and maybe the nation) at about 3%. Middle Tennessee (i.e. Nashville) is a mixed bag of big-spending liberal Democrats and low-tax small-government Republicans, with a growing Hispanic population. West Tennessee (i.e. Memphis) is predominantly Democrat, owing in part to the large minority population.

Similar to how Celtic influenced Appalachian folk music morphed into the Nashville Sound and collided with Delta Country Blues in Memphis to spark the super nova of Rock and Roll, there’s just no telling what the weird vibe of Tennessee politics might produce next.

OK, sorry. Enough with the sophomoric metaphors. This is supposed to be about the Tennessee Democratic presidential primaries.

It appears to me (disclaimer, I’m just some Bubba, so what do I know?) that the Tennessee primary is shaping up to be a battle between Clark and Edwards for the Soul of the South. And we’re not talking Booker T. and the MGs. (Oops. Sorry about that metaphor thing again). And the loser in Tennessee may have a hard time advancing in the primaries.

Last year, Tennessee opted out of the Super Tuesday game, and moved our primaries up so we would get more attention from the Candidates. As Kerry national campaign co-chairman and rising Democratic star U.S. Representative Harold Ford from Memphis said in May of 2003 when the legislation was introduced, the change of primaries is “a positive thing. It’ll get all the candidates paying more attention to us.” I agree. But I won’t note the irony that his man Kerry has not yet been to Tennessee to campaign, or even run any ads that I’ve seen (although it is rumored he is coming to Nashville today).

Clark and Edwards, on the other hand, are working their Southern Strategy hard in Tennessee. Clark is on a statewide bus tour. Edwards was all over East Tennessee and Southern Virginia on Friday. Clark held a rally here in Knoxville Thursday night, and met with community leaders and clergy on Friday.

Clark got his face on the Jumbotron at the one of the most heated women’s college basketball rivalries in the nation -- UT v. UConn -- and got his picture on the front page of Friday’s paper. In addition to getting in front of 20,000 people at the game, he got a nice headline about former Bush voters who are now supporting Clark.

Edwards was here last night, and shared the front page today with Clark (who got top billing) and Teresa Heinz Kerry. Both the Clark and Edwards events were held at landmark restaurants overlooking the Tennessee River. Both events were packed to the rafters and standing room only.

Clark and Edwards have blanketed the state with ads. Clark staffers gave up a week’s pay to help fund a massive push this week. Clark got an early start with his ads back in January. He has spent nearly $1 million here so far, and it has paid off. Some friends of ours, lifelong Democrats (she’s a teacher, he’s Catholic), had not even heard of Clark back in December. Last weekend they were leaning his way.

And Kerry, well, he sent his wife to Knoxville Friday evening to talk to about three dozen environmental activists at the U.T. Law School. (It should be noted that U.T., who does most of TVA’s environmental research, is across the board a big supporter and an apologist for TVA, one of the worst polluters in the region if not the nation).

Edwards’ event, which was held at the same time at the Riverside Tavern had a far better turnout (Mrs. Bubba estimates over 250). Of course, they make a most excellent Martini there, which comes with a view of the Tennessee River and South Knoxville where I grew up.

Oh, I almost forgot. There are some other candidates vying for Tennessee’s 85 delegates. Dean had a great, grassroots campaign early on. Lots of meet-ups and Moveon.org type agitators. I was on board early (after Graham dropped out) and gave money. But his campaign seems to have evaporated here. His numbers in Tennessee have been dropping like a rock since Iowa. Personally, I wasn’t put off by his “I have a scream” speech, but I predicted it would hurt him and in fact might have finished him. Sure enough, the general consensus among the folks I talk to in Tennessee, even Dean supporters, is that it was just too weird. And this is from the state who brought you South Knox native Johnny “Jackass” Knoxville.

Sharpton and Kucinich, of course, are not factors in Tennessee. Lieberman might have been a player in GOP dominated East Tennessee (where many Democrats are actually Republicans who don’t realize it or just won’t admit it), but according to early voting totals many Democrats waited until after the Feb. 3rd primaries to vote and after Lieberman dropped out. C'est la vie.

So anyway, back to the viable Tennessee candidates.

The most recent numbers I have seen are from a poll of 656 voters by SurveyUSA (through last Monday and before the SC primary). It had Kerry at 31% Clark at 26%, Edwards at 20%, and Dean at 15%. Kerry is up from 4% a month ago, and Edwards is up from 6%. Clark remained flat, while Dean dropped from 27%. This shows strong movement for Kerry and Edwards after New Hampshire. Clark had already been campaigning heavily in Tennessee, and his support appears to remain steady. Native Tennessean Al Gore’s endorsement has not seemed to help Dean, but keep in mind that Gore was not able to carry his own state in 2000.

According to the Knoxville News Sentinel’s political reporter Georgiana Vines, “The survey showed Kerry was strong in East Tennessee among older voters and liberals; Clark was strong among middle-aged voters and minorities; Edwards was strong among white voters and Independents; and Dean was strong among young voters and in West Tennessee.”

Curiously, this goes exactly against my gut feel. Judging from attendance at rallies, I have seen younger people, seniors, and very few minorities at Clark rallies (although the local NAACP leader was at his first public rally back in December). Mrs. Bubba observed more middle-aged voters at Edwards’ rally last night. But it wasn’t a school night and there wasn’t a Lady Vols game, so maybe that was a factor. And Kerry’s strong showing among liberals in East Tennessee is understandable, but support among East Tennessee’s older voters seems contrary to our conservative demographic. On the other hand, perhaps they see Kerry as their best choice for protecting Social Security and Medicare.

Fundraising in Tennessee does not seem to track with the poll rankings, however. At the end of 2003, Edwards was first at $270,000, Dean was second with $171,812, Clark was third at $119,719, with Kerry bringing up the rear at $78,798. I’m sure Kerry has seen a surge here after his primary wins, though.

No matter which way you look at it, Clark and Edwards are clearly splitting the anti-Kerry (previously the anti-Dean) moderate vote. Looking back to 1992, Clinton won Tennessee with 67% percent, followed by former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas at 20%, and former California Governor Jerry Brown at 8%. If you combined the Clark and Edwards numbers, you get a similar result today. The more moderate candidates would win over the liberal Massachusetts senator, and soundly beat the liberal former governor. Clinton went on to win Tennessee in the 1992 general election 47% to Bush’s 42%, with Perot playing Bush spoiler at 10%.

On the issues, health care is a major concern in Tennessee. Nearly one-fourth of our population is receiving government-assisted health care under TennCare, our version of Medicaid. Even though it is two-thirds funded by Federal Medicaid money, it is struggling under massive cost increases and spending is out of control, accounting for nearly a third of Tennessee’s $20 billion state budget. Many enrollees are poor people, but a large number are “uninsurables”, which TennCare expands beyond Medicaid to help cover. These people are all concerned about the future of the program and what they will do for insurance if it is scaled back, which appears likely.

And despite Dean’s call to make this election about more than “God, Guns, and Gays”, God and Guns are hot buttons here. City and county governments around the state are passing so-called “God Resolutions”, officially recognizing faith in God as the foundation of government. (Don’t ask me, I just live here). Clark seems to have noticed this and tailored his message with references to his “Baptist upbringing” at the Knoxville rally Thursday.

There are also a lot of sportsmen and outdoor enthusiasts, meaning a lot of hunters and sport shooters, who are concerned about their 2nd Amendment rights. Many are hard-core, single-issue libertarians or NRA Republicans, though, and therefore may not be a huge factor in the Democratic primary. But they may be a factor in the general election. Some speculate that Al Gore’s anti-gun rhetoric was his downfall in Tennessee in 2000. (Although I attribute it to a) taking us for granted, and b) not letting the Big Dog Bill off the porch to campaign for him down here).

Jobs and the economy are issues, but not as critical as in some other states. Our unemployment is relatively low and remains fairly steady, especially in East Tennessee. We are a “right to work” state, and union endorsements don’t seem to carry much weight.

Social Security and Medicare are big issues with seniors, as they are in every other state. I don’t have a sense of which candidate is stronger on entitlements, but they all seem to have about the same message, with Kerry probably having a slight edge in this department. It should be noted, however, that Gore’s “lock box” didn’t seem to help much here.

The war in Iraq does not seem to be as divisive an issue, but the debate crosses party lines (even our Republican U.S. Representative John Duncan from East Tennessee voted against it, but he is extremely popular and can do whatever he wants and be assured of reelection).

Unfortunately, we are practically illiterate down here on public affairs. Lots of people I know, Democrats and Republicans, don’t even subscribe to the local paper. They probably couldn’t tell you what channel CNN and MSNBC are on their cable TV, but some of them probably know Fox News. They get most of their news from the local TV news, which is strongly GOP influenced, as is local talk radio which is dominated by Neal Boortz and Rush Limbaugh kicked off by a local conservative morning show.

Maybe it’s the same everywhere else, but it’s frustrating nonetheless. The local TV media has been pretty good about covering the Democratic candidate’s local events, but they worship George Bush and repeat the conventional wisdom mantra that Kerry is the obvious nominee, while forgetting to mention that only 10% or so of the delegates have been selected nationwide.

So who will win the primary in Tennessee? I think it is a tight three-way race between Kerry, Clark, and Edwards, much closer than the polls suggest. Kerry appears to have a slight edge, but he is vulnerable and his lack of campaigning here will hurt him. Edwards is coming on strong after SC. Clark has been on a steady march, and is pulling out all the stops for a “must-win” in Tennessee. He has work to do, but may pull it off. Both Clark and Edwards are attacking Kerry here, which may help overcome the “conventional wisdom” and get the voters of Tennessee to take a look at the other candidates instead of letting the local TV talking wobbly-bobble-heads decide for them. If that happens, I call it for Clark in a squeaker.

Looking forward to November, if Kerry is the nominee, expect Bush to chalk up another huge Red State win in Tennessee. On the other hand, a Clark/Edwards ticket, or even an Edwards/Clark ticket, would give Democrats a fighting chance in Tennessee. We went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. We recently elected a moderate Democrat as governor, despite George Bush’s endorsement and numerous campaign visits for the GOP opponent. I don’t think Tennessee will pick anyone to the left of the DLC, though.

OK, then.

(Disclaimer, I’m a Clark man, if you couldn’t already tell. At his rallies, however, I sometimes wish his name were Snickers or Baby Ruth. Those Clark Bars are awful.)

 

i'm doing my rimrocker imitation...

 

cnn and fox have given VA to Kerry.

 

actually, this is not a bad idea i think. when's the NY primary? istarted to say a southerner couldn't win here, but then i remembered who our junior senator is...

 

cnn has kerry winning over edwards in tennessee too. looks like a double.