He's a more consistent hitter than all of them.... thus he will get to play with consistency. While this team relies (overly) on hitting HR's, anybody will tell you that its not necessarily the "best" way to win games. They are sorely in need of balance up and down the lineup to compensate for some of the awful hitters (such as Castro, Bad Carter, Bad Gattis, Bad Valbuena).
In what way? Certainly not defensively. And not offensively, either. I have my issues with Chris Carter, certainly, but since May 1, his OPS is .804 and he's slugging .459. Since June 1, it's .866 and .485. This team is built around Carter/Gattis/Valbuena busting innings open. So I find it hard to believe the team is going to sideline Chris Carter. And even harder to believe that if they do, they'd do so in favor of Jed Lowrie; not when Jon Singleton has the potential to be a rich man's Chris Carter. He has four positions: 3B, DH, 2B, SS. He likely platoons with Valbuena - that's about the only certainity. I'm sure he'll pick-up starts here and there; and I'm sure they'll try to find ways to put him in the line-up... but I just don't see too many realistic opportunities (barring a dam-busting trade).
Consistently average. What about his four-year slash line prior to this year stands out: .263/.328/.407/.735 He doesn't get on base at a high rate; he doesn't slug. It's not like he's a defensive wizard. He's an incredibly average player without an everyday position Has this FO given any indication that that's something they'd tell you? Gattis/Carter/Valbuena rank 2nd, 4th and 5th on the team in PAs.
Carter has a WAR of 0.2. He's replaceable for at least a game or two every week. You honestly think Lowrie wouldn't be able to play 1B with at least the same level of competence as Carter and his -0.7 dWAR? And if you're still in love with Carter when he's good, you can DH him. This team currently relies upon those guys to hit HR's because honestly there's no viable alternatives at the big league level (and not really much in the minors as well with Singleton still "figuring it out")... that doesn't mean they were "built" around guys to fluctuate between awful and mediocre. And he'll be able to platoon at 3B and DH as well. Its not that complicated.
He's played in 70 of the team's 72 games. There is ZERO indication that the team is the least bit inclined to sit Chris Carter a game or two a week. Yeah, you know what - let's just throw every player into the air and play 'em wherever they land... *Could* Lowrie play 1B? Possible, I guess. But he never has. So this idea he's going to Hoover 1-2 games a week from Chris Carter has zero basis in reality. I've said he'll almost certainly platoon with Valbuena; right now, the RH/LH ratio is about 1.5:1 (favoring Valbuena). And yes, he can DH - but as I've said in 3 or 4 posts now, he joins an already crowded group of Gattis, Rasmus, Tucker and Marishnick who, right now, are fighting for 3 spots. And I guess you're assuming Lowrie picks right up where he left off, with his egregiously outlier of a career year after a major injury? He's an average hitter healthy. And his two most obvious positions (SS and 2B) are locked down. And even if they do find a way to get him in the line-up every night... this idea that a 41-31 team gets suddenly significantly better is vastly overrtaing Lowrie.
Well, based on his season's production... they wouldn't have won any less games without him. He's started only 67 games, so he will sit "some"... but again, who's going to replace him right now on this roster? Marwin? He's played 11 big league games there. Is that a big enough sample size to say he'd be great? No, but that's also probably because he was more needed at a more difficult position. Do you think Chris Carter is a good first baseman? Because the stats say the Astros actually win 1 more game this season if he's not there.... not to mention him continuing to botch short-hop throws and bunt attempts like he did last night. They've played Marwin there this season... pretty sure they'd play Lowrie there if he's willing. Who's saying about getting "VASTLY" better... but even you have to admit they'd be better with him getting ALL the playing time that is currently going to Marwin Gonzalez and just automatically being given to Carter/Gattis simply because there's no viable bench replacements. If he's fully healthy, they'll find a way to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible.
Yes, I factored in that the Astros face about a 3:2 ratio of RH:LH when I pulled the #'s above. Just to be clear, I said 30% of Carter's starts against RH's. When you factor in the ratio above, it's more like 20%. Note that I didn't say anything was coming from Correa, and very minimal from Altuve. More accurately, I wrote out flat #'s earlier. On a monthly basis: -4 games from Gattis -5 from Carter -2 from Altuve -10 from Valbuena (vsL and maybe 1 other day) -all those #'s include existing rest days + the extra days off I suggested We haven't seen Marisnick, Rasmus, or Tucker DH to this point. I don't think they're in the DH rotation, nor do I think it's necessary. I think we can find time for a 4 man OF (with Springer sitting rarely of course).
My guess is Lowrie will take all of Valbuena's at bats vs LHP and most or all of Marwin's at bats. Beyond that I don't know.
Let's not confuse what *you* want to happen with what this team may or may not want to happen. There is next-to-no indication the Astros are looking to play Chris Carter less. They haven't given Evan Gattis any of Carter's reps (he has as much experience playing 1B as Lowrie), they haven't made a move for their $10MM investment in Fresno, no one on the team has played in as many games, they haven't benched him during any of at least two really horrid stretches... they seem overly-committed to Chris Carter. For the record: Jed Lowrie (2014): .249/.321/.355/.676 Marwin Gonzalez (2015): .239/.262/.390/.652 (And Marwin was actually better last year - granted, with fewer PAs: .277/.327/.400/.727) Lowrie got off to a tremendous start this year; yeah, well, so did Marishnick, who was .362/.415/.574 the day Lowrie got hurt... There's nothing in Lowrie's career to suggest he has the talent to maintain a .999 OPS. He's an average baseball player. If he's posting a .999 OPS, yeah - they're going to move whatever around to play him. But if he's closer to his most recent 4-year average of .735...... What about his game do you think this organization values that they'd start drastically rearranging their MO to accomodate him?
Marwin's only playing because of injuries to Lowrie and now Altuve (+ how completely unplayable Valbuena has been against LHers). Lowrie likely assumes Gonzalez's 3B platoon role. But with Correa here, and assuming better health and no trades, whoever the back-up utility infielder is will go back to spot starts and pinch-hitting. I just don't see a lot of ready-made ABs available.
This is a pretty hilarious statement coming from you... since you twist nearly every narrative of your "opinion" to be taken as fact. This whole debate/argument is of your volition... absolutely nobody would be shocked if Lowrie is an everyday player (if healthy) when he comes back, but you insist he won't be simply because that's what "you" want to happen ("because he's an average player, about what Marwin is, yada, yada, yada...") Why don't they play Gattis for Carter at 1st right now? Because it wouldn't make one bit of difference to the net effect of the lineup, along with taking into account Gattis' lower extremity issues that makes any field time a risk. I'm playing Lowrie at first during stretches where Carter/Gattis are awful... and I maintain that even Lowrie's paltry 1B experience outweighs what Carter has done to a net negative result this year. You do realize that they actively went out and acquired the "average" Lowrie, coming off his "bad" season. He wasn't just some player that ended up here by default. So, if you're going on and on about what this organization wants, I feel they actually do want Lowrie in the lineup (and they'd already discussed moving him around once Correa came up, which he was ok with). They probably want him even more since he's seems to have rebounded from his career worst season that you use again and again to define as who he is. And this was also before Carter regressed (again), and Gattis started putting up career worse numbers.... so again, I ask you... what has changed from the point of when they acquired him? Or do you completely throw WAR out the window when evaluating what a player brings to the table (mainly saying that Carter, despite the "hot" streaks, isn't playing much better than a replacement player right now).
I'd love an example, especially if there are so many to choose from; should be easy... I have no opinion other than I want the team to play the best 8 guys available. But in looking at the team and it's line-up, approach, and recent history - I'm merely asking where, exactly, people think Lowrie is going to get ABs. And the responses are not based in any available reality. Lowrie hasn't played 1B since 2011, and even then, it was limited (3 games). And the Astros have given zero indication that they're willing to rest Chris Carter 1/2 days/week. (And my "Lowrie is average" take, btw, is just to counter-balance this growing sentiment that, "Man! When the Astros get Lowrie back..." Yes, he upgrades our utility infielder. Utility infielders don't ordinarily make teams better, assuming good health.) Yes, Nick - YOU'RE playing, which was my initial point: this is what YOU want to happen. But what indication have the Astros given that THEY want it to happen? They very obviously do not share your opinion of Gattis/Carter. Yes, Nick, when they thought their options were Villar/Gonzalez and Correa was off in the distance. Then *a lot* of things changed and looking at the landscape, there doesn't appear to be a lot of PAs to go around. Yeah, not much - they just promoted the team's most promising prospect since, like, 1972 who, you know, plays Lowrie's natural position. And I think maybe I need to remind you: I'm no Chris Carter fan. I've been pushing them to jettison him for Singleton for quite awhile now. While I appreciate CC's highs, and admit that the team's evaluation process is a foreign concept to me - I think his lows are too low and he's too wildly inconsistent. BUT... the Astros have given zero indication that they share my opinion. So the idea that they're going to sit Carter 1-2 days a week... based on what? Again, what YOU want them to do? Carter carried a sub-.400 SLG% through June 3 and he started 51 of 54 games over that stretch. Now they're going to start resting 1-2 games *a week*?
Right now, they really don't have a viable option to replace him at the big league level. Singleton hasn't made enough improvements at AAA to be anything more than a replacement-level player at this point. "obviously"? Again, Lowrie needs to come back to force these decisions to be made. When he first came up, he was a super-utility guy. When he signed here, it was with the understanding that that role may need to be revisited should certain players get added to the roster. Not really... Correa coming up this year was ALWAYS a possibility. Villar/Gonzalez were never considered as viable starting players, and if it wasn't for Super 2, Correa would have been the everyday SS the day Lowrie went on the DL. Lowrie was signed to be an almost everyday player, and nothing has really changed in that aspect, even with Correa up (something they prepared Lowrie for when he signed here). Again, this was known when Lowrie signed that he'd be likely changing positions at some point. First you need to accept that if Lowrie is healthy, even at his career "average" level, he creates more runs in this lineup than Bad Carter or Bad Gattis. Once you understand that... you then attempt to find a place for him in this lineup wherever you can. Of course, you can't presume that Carter/Gattis will be this inept forever.... you also can't presume everybody stays healthy. Lowrie will be a welcome addition back... don't lose sleep about where they're going to find AB's for him.
Guys like Carter and Valbuena and Gattis aren't going to be regularly benched. Valbuena could be in a platoon, but the other two are gonna play pretty much every single day A lot of people still want this team to be build like teams of the past, and that is fine if that is what you want. Bottom line though, is that Luhnow built this team on power bats at least for this year. Yes, those guys are wildly inconsistent, but part of the plan is that you continually play they and at least one of them is likely to be "hot" at any time. And having a hot power bat in the lineup hitting HR's, is going to give you a chance. Especially with guys like Springer, Correa and hopefully Altuve in there also. The Astros are very very very unlikely to start trying to "figure out" who will be hot and when it will happen. I seriously doubt Luhnow is questioning the strategy that he had when he built this team, since, you know, it's been fairly successful.
I doubt he's married to Carter if he continues to play at this regressed level both at the plate and on the field. This year's lows have been lower... and the highs haven't been as high. He's now exceeded half the plate appearances he had last year. I know him "getting hot" is always a possibility (last year's streak could have also been an outlier), but at some point you have to come to the realization that he may not be getting "better". (and especially when his defense is hurting this team).
Wait, wait, wait... who needs to accept what, exactly? Me? The guy who doesn't want Chris Carter in the line-up? I need to accept that he's been a below average hitter this year, at times among the very worst hitters in all of baseball, and shouldn't be in the line-up? Yeah, again, I've been there for quite a while... I'm not, nor have I ever, argued against Jed Lowrie being in the line-up. I think fans are overrating his impact, yes - but I'm not arguing he shouldn't play regularly. I'm *only* arguing that I don't believe the Astros share your opinion of Chris Carter and that finding regular ABs for Lowrie is going to prove difficult (beyond platooning with Valbuena). You may be right - Carter might be playing so often only because there's simply no even remotely better alternative. But to make the leap that Lowrie - who, again, hasn't played 1B in four years and, even then, did so on an extremely limited basis - is that better alternative seems more like something *you'd* like to see happen more than it being something that has any basis in reality. It might; this team is nothing if not unconventional. But I'll have to see it before I believe it. The team is built around home runs and speed; Jed Lowrie doesn't add to either.
Don't have to be a professional GM to consider that Lowrie may be able to handle first base better than Carter (even if he hadn't played it in awhile... again moreso because he was the better option at 3B/SS on the teams he was on, not because he couldn't play first base)... and based on this month, Carter is actually getting worse there. He also wouldn't be the "everyday" 1B... but I'd consider him against strong right-handers unless Carter is in one of his torrid streaks (and even then, you can always have Carter DH... unless Gattis is equally torrid). Was this visionary "team building" just performed in the last 2 months after Lowrie's injury? Or was this always in consideration even when they signed Lowrie to begin with, with full knowledge that Correa would be coming up to take his position at some point? I can just as easily say that "this team is built around scoring more runs than the other team... which Lowrie's expected production and improved defense will contribute more to that goal if Carter never goes on a unbelievable hot streak like he did last year." It really sounds like you didn't care much for his signing... which is fine, but clearly this front office values him. And I sorta see the benefits of having a versatile/switch-hitting "AVERAGE" player to plug around the infield.