[Spanish Radio] Sergio Llull close to deciding to join the Rockets?

i wont deflect im not a fan of him at all, you can be optimistic but what tune will you be singing if he doesnt pan out and we are stuck with him?

 

Gotta trust Morey on this.

Besides, it would free him up to use other "assets" to get....whomever that third star is that he's always chasing.

 

"Still undecided" Either you're coming or you're not, please decide

 

Should trust morey but man im just not sold on him

 

If he can play average defense, score off the ball, and handle playmaking duties while Harden is out then he's already better than any PG we currently have on the roster.

The bar we have for our starting point guard next year is not that high.

 

I hope it doesn't turn into another Chris Bosh situation where time dragged on waiting for a decision, and in the meantime, other opportunities that could have gotten us to the level we needed to be to compete with GS passed us by (Lowry).

 

Don't forget there are many things that will happen between now and free agency. Draft, player/team options, trades, etc. Llull may have decided to come, but circumstances can change quickly.

For example, let's say the Rockets trade Ariza and DMo for Love. We will almost surely want Brewer and KJ McDaniels back if that happens, which means no MLE for Llull.

 

I hope not. Jerry West opposed the Klay Thompson for Love deal when it was on the table at that time. Love will eventually demand a lot of money for marginal improvement. To be honest, I was never a fan of K. Love.

 

What's the earliest we can trade Llull, if he agrees to come over?

 

30 days

 

I wonder if the Rockets would do a deal under the table, where Llull agrees to sign, with the understanding that he'd be traded to Cleveland in a month, as part of a sign and trade for Love?

It could be tempting for Cleveland, if Morey desperately wants Love over anything else, and wants a sign and trade. i guess it depends on the kind of leverage he'd have at that point.

 

Hell no to Kevin Love.

 

mauri needs to trade for LerBon so Lulz can come over.

 

This is an important factor, and you could include Spanoulis here. Experience, self-confidence, knowledge of the game are factors.

Rodriguez went to the NBA way too soon. At least, the NBA certainly helped him to grow as a player. I got the sense that we sent there a very talented and skilled kid... and a man came back here, with the experience of the failure, of a living alone and improved the natural weaknesses of his game.


With the experience of the failure, the vital experience (not only the professional one) of having left at 18 years old to make a living at a totally different country, with a totally different culture and language, and such as competitive world as the NBA is. And to do that alone by himself (because Rudy or Pau Gasol, or Ricky, they arrived alongside their families, initially). The Europe-NBA change is by itself complicated, and anybody who has lived alone abroad can understand that, but added factors that hinder the process are given... Firstly the qualitative leap from european level to the NBA level, secondly his initial loneliness in Portland, the struggling with the language... He comes from a situation where he's the most popular and loved guy by everyone, where everything goes easy for him in Madrid, to an unknown city/environment, where he has to fight not only on the court with new bball challenges, but also off the court with the language, the accustoming to the NBA life an NBA habits... and do it alone -and at 18 y.o., not 24-.

On the other side, that global challenge and the whole NBA world helped him a lot to become a better profesional, a more mature individual, and a better player too (because Sergio worked A LOT in his game during his NBA tenure). The experience made of Sergio and V-Span better players today.

Rudy's situation I'd say it's different. I think his main issue came from the belief of him being a better player than what he actually was, and having boundless expectations to become a sort of Manu Ginobili... Reality is: I have not seen any improvement in his game (either in Spain or in the US) since he was 20-21.... he's still weak physically. He has not improved ball handling, he has not improved 1x1 resources (stays with the step back as the only 1x1 weapon)... and being a good shooter he does not reach the level of a Klay Thompson. So where is his role? He can't be nothing else than a good backup player in the NBA... And that's what he was. Unlike Rodriguez, he's not a better player now than he was by then, because his game has not evolved.

In the case of Llull I am optimistic because I agree with the Rockets beliefs that his qualities translate well to the NBA, and at the same time he would arrive at the perfect personal moment.

He has elite athleticism and speed at his position in europe but still could be above average at it in the NBA. As you can see in the scout video of Hinkie, his physical conditions + technical formation allows him to answer well to the next level of competition without having to change his gameplay (just two dribbles to get to the rim from the 3 pt line...). A higher physical level, a few less tenths of a second to make decisions, implies for some players that they cannot implement anymore some of his offensive weapons at the same efficiency level. That heavily happened to V-Span or Sarunas Jasikevicius... for example with their running shot, their off the bounce jumper... their efficacy to finish near the basket.... That's something that anyone with some scouting knowledge easily understands, the reason why Jimmer Fredette or Austin Rivers are not NBA stars, or why Spanoulis, being a european star, is not a more useful player than Beverley in the NBA.

The Rockets believe that Llull's game display at the NBA can be very similar to wwhat he shows in Europe wihout losing effectiveness. Mainly, Llull is not a go-to-guy as Spanoulis, Sarunas or Sergio Rodriguez were (are). Llull is at a similar global level at European basketball thanks to his physical superiority, his better defensive level, rebounding skills, intangibles, his domination of the transition game .... But Llull is not going to suffer the pressure of having to sustain a whole offense by himself (role and play style of those other players in Europe) against a higher physical level. If something, the NBA probably fortifies some of his qualities, because the NBA favours the open game and the creation of wider offensive spaces, where Llull's game stands out. (Here is when sometimes one has the feeling that european game it has become too small for him...)

Another factor is that the player is better prepared physically than Spanoulis and company to defend NBA PGs. Not only for that. More prepared for the hardness of the NBA schedule / NBA life. Llull is a player with an unparalleled motor, he really has special physical endurance. He never gets tired, he always competes at 100%, no matter he has to play 2 national league games + a Euroleague game at the same week, he always plays hard, plays the same way... that's a huge skill. His body looks ready and able to withstand the NBA hardness.

Besides everything, his march would happen in the prime of his career (not the Rodriguez or Spanoulis cases). He has improved throughout his career at all his natural weaknesses: self-control, game direction, limitation of turnovers... And at the same time he has extended his offensive arsenal, improved his confidence, poise and leadership thanks to the overall experience effect.

 

lol Should I reread posts before posting them (always forget it here)...
Ignore the first paragraph, that was kind of a sketch for me and should have been erased, try to excuse that.

 

Just wanted to thank you for this write up. One of my favorite aspects of this websites is input from well informed people like you.

 

Seconded. Great post.

Spanoulis's success in Europe has always puzzled me, given how awful he looked with us. This makes it so much clearer.

Anchel, I wonder if the right way to think about Spanoulis is as a Euroleague Allen Iverson, i.e. able to create a mediocre shot at will, but rarely an easy one. Is it true that shot creation is a rare skill there?

 

Tremendously informative post, anchel!

 

On face value one would think this, but we have no idea what the contract looks like. Much like the Papanikolaou contract which on face value... 2 years/10 million... makes you want to go... WTF, then you actually learn about the contract and realize its a great low risk contract that would be a wonderful trade asset in less than a year.

I would be surprise if two things weren't the case with the Llull contract offer-

1. That he wouldn't be getting paid out of the MLE allotted amount (5.4 mil next year I believe)
2. That there wouldn't be partial of fully guaranteed money on year two
3. Part of year 2, and all of year three are non-guaranteed or a team option

If you do the math with his buyout, exchange rate, and current contract, he only breaks even financially in year 1. The Rockets have to give SOME type of financial benefit, and that would need to come in year 2.

However that 3rd year I would be shocked if it wasn't full non-guaranteed or a team option.

So realistically, the contract Llull is getting is probably more or less a two year 6 to 10 million dollar contract amount at the end of the day.

Hopefully we can be lucky enough to be wrong and Llull is good enough to get year 2 and 3 picked up and at that point... three years 18 million will end up being a bargain contract. But don't be shocked if Morey structures the contract in a way to where if he's not at the very least a solid starter... the Rockets will have no problem at all moving him, and probably being able to use his contract as a trade asset like the Papanikolaou contract, and the Dalembert contract before him.

 

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I love how clutch this guy is. He also seems to have incredible body control.