Oh, I think they'd be fools to trade him *right now* - this team has been far too unstable to trade away a player of Altuve's stature. But, if Bregman tears it up; if Luhnow falls asleep nightly dreaming of a DP combo of Correa-Bregman....
Nobody's calling for a trade, just that it may be an option down the line. While he was spectacular last season, there is more evidence to suggest he may be a more of a .300/.340/.400 type of hitter that plays average defense. Which is a really good player, but certainly not irreplaceable. Having said that, he may also be closer to last year's player, I'm not really sure. We'll just have to see how this season plays out.
You keep them if they're your best available option; the Astros may very well have a wealth of better options - Kemp, Fontana, Bregman... Altuve was tremendous last year; *that* guy you absolutely keep. But the 2013 and 2015 version of Altuve? Far more expendable as the talent starts to develop. And keep in mind: he's not one of Lunow's guys. JL's not dumb - he'll keep guys that can play. But if he thinks Kemp can be as good as Altuve, I don't see Luhnow being loyal to someone else's prospect.
I've procrastinated this morning by checking out the PECOTA projections for some Astros prospects. If I remember correctly, Nate Silver has said that the PECOTA projections really can't tell you much until a player make sit to AA ball, but it's still fun to look at what the model says for some of our young, less heralded guys. Jason Martin's top three comparable players right now, with similarity scores in parentheses: 2006 Andrew McCutcheon (97); 2010 Frederick Parejo (96); 2006 Michael Brantley (96). All those scores mean is that Martin's current season is most similar to those players at the same age (i.e., 19 y/o Jason Martin is similar to 19 y/o McCutcheon and Brantley). They're only a part of PECOTA's projection calculus. Brett Phillips projects as a positive WAR player beginning next year. The system currently sees him as a a 1.5 WAR contributor every year for basically the next decade. Both Martin and Phillips have some of the highest UPSIDE scores in the Astros organization (it's essentially a metric that uses other comparable players to come up with the best possible WAR outcome during a prospect's window of team control). PECOTA still likes Domingo Santana's (high UPSIDE score), mostly because he's still so young and playing at AAA.
Altuve not going anywhere. I don't even know why this is an argument. Altuve is still young and getting better.
Not going to worry about his "range" at 2b, especially since he's involved in a shift almost for every batter. He's also one of the FASTEST DP turners in the league... that should count as a + on defense. He doesn't walk... but he also doesn't K as much as the rest of the lineup.
Altuve will still go about his business and get his... aka 200 hits this season or close. How many second baseman at the age of 25 can do this. In fact, how many have gotten 225 hits at or before this age? We are good at this position for a long time and I'm willing to bet he retires an Astro and has his name lifted in the rafters with a few rings to his belt. If a player plays 2B then they will promptly move to another position.
He's on pace for 185, FYI. There was a contigent - I'll resist putting a size to it - that feared his '14 was a bit flukey and not replicable. He drew 36 walks in 707 PAs... that is... I mean... that's insane. And awful. No one thinks he's bad by any stretch (although, since May 17, he's posted a .474!!! OPS) - but a .290/.320/.700 MI is dime-a-dozen-ish. And while I continue to maintain that he's maybe THE most untradeable player on the team right now in terms of what his visibility means to the team in the shadow of all its losing, I don't believe Luhnow and company would place tremendous long-term value in that level of production. They have a lot of MI in their system.
Altuve's biggest problem right now is he's swinging at more balls outside the strikezone than ever, and he was already a bad-ball hitter before.
