He is a classic Luhnow pick. His command and control are excellent. He can put the ball exactly where he wants it. The Astros very much value exceptional placement over velocity. This wasn't a compromise pick, they like him and think he can be good.
Bregman gets 5, Tucker gets 4, and Cameron gets 4. My point is that I could see Tucker and Cameron getting very similar deals. Just amazing they got both of them and Bregman. 17+ million should do the trick.
I'll be happy when they're all signed, sealed, and delivered. Until then the joy is tempered a bit. If the three pan out and reach their potentials it could be one of those really special drafts.
Kiley McD gave Eshelman a risk grade of 1. The scale is 1-5 only one other player got a 2 and the rest were 3+
Matuella is still on the board? I guess he's asking for too much then. Curious to see if the Astros take anymore difficult to sign guys later because they may have maxed out their entire slot with the Cameron pick. Keep in mind risk grade of 1 also means low upside, as overall grade factors that upside. So he's probably more of a 4th starter upside whereas as Aiken, who's total grade is just slightly higher at 45+, clearly has #1 starter level upside assuming everything goes right. Probably a slightly underslot college guy.
Aiken was drafted by the Indians it looks like, slot for that pick is $2.393m. If he signs at slot he cost himself $2.6m. Costly decision.
If 5 Million is the target for Cameron, then the Astros need to find roughly 3.4 million in savings. It will be tight, but I think Luhnow can do it. It might have us sweating though. If we can, getting 3 of the top 8 players in a draft is unreal.
Well, he did just retweet this gem, so maybe hes willing to take less. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/daz_cameron16">@daz_cameron16</a> don't look at rankings, look at the franchise you going to. Ton of future, best of luck you're gonna do great things!!</p>— Josh L #21⚾ (@j_lib_21) <a href="https://twitter.com/j_lib_21/status/608161306755997697">June 9, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Not concerned about what Kiley McD views his upside as honestly. The Astros view upside quite differently. He was dominant in college and has a super elite skill, his level of control and command comes along very seldom. He fits the Astros model perfectly.
The team basically knows what each player wants, so it figures that they know they have room. Lets not forget that they can exceed their pool by 5% ($864K) without major penalty. Bregman should sign for a discount. The Astros will not be making any more signability draft fall picks until after the 10th round.
He could fall out of the top 10 rounds, unless some team feels they've got substantial pool savings. I assume he's going to try and come back healthy next year and improve his stock. If I was him, I'd be happy with mid-1st money, which is about $2.5M.
I'm sure the Astros have a good gauge on how likely they are to sign all 3 top guys. But lets say the Cameron deal falls through, it would seem to be a worthwhile pick to scoop up Matuella. We could try and throw the Bregman savings at him instead of just letting it go to waste. The risk/reward with a lower pick would seem to be worth it.
I'm not sure Kiley has same view on lack of upside that the poster attributes to him. I'm pretty sure the Astros view him as a guy that has a good chance at making the majors. You get a bunch of guys to the majors and some of them are going to exceed your expectations just as some won't. "Upside" doesn't really help if a player can't make it to the majors.
McDaniel in his podcast talked about the way he put his players into tiers. IIRC he was even mentioning Daz Cameron as a case of someone he could've put as future 60 with 5 risk as a higher schooler, but decided that was going too far in his board. Basically the rankings factor in risk. Meaning that two players with the same grade, the higher risk player would have higher perceived upside and vice versa. Not sure why any post that seem to imply a player probably isn't going to be future star implies that said opinion must be wrong. If the guy is a future Keuchel he'd be going in the top 5 picks, not in the 2nd round by a team who probably will give him a below slot deal to fit 3 other blue chippers. Is there really anything wrong to say he probably has a lower ceiling than, say, Lance McCaullers who was taken slighty higher but was a HS guy with 70 fastball? Anyway, McDaniel also perfectly predicted the Astros picks, including Cameron at 37. So if there's ever a prospect guy that clear knows about the Astros, its him.
