Interesting tidbit from NFL Live: On average the NFL kickers have made 91.6% of FG between 32 and 33 yards. On average a 2pt conversion from the 2 yard line was converted 47% of the time. This means an XP is now with .916* pts/attempt, and a 2pt conversion is worth .940 pts/attempt.
Fakes that never happen anyway. Good incremental move by the NFL. This is only approved for a one-year experimental basis so they can let it expire if things don't go well.
If you're a *really* good running team, I think going for 2 nearly every time would be a no brainer. But NFL coaches aren't exactly fans of teh maths.
And that's really it. Yeah, league wide on average it might make some sense to go for it, but some teams just aren't going to be as effective in a 2 pt situation and it would make more sense for those teams to kick the long XP.
I'm really excited for this change. A Pick-2 or a Kick-2 (blocked PAT returned for 2) could really swing a game.
I get the impression you can only return a 2-pt conversion, but not a blocked kick. Not sure though? This does end all the weird lineup stuff where all the lineman go lineup wide and then run back to the middle. I guess that's something only Chip Kelly really does, though.
My question is whether or not the 47% figure is conditional in part to the fact that teams don't game plan for 2 point conversions as often. That would impact the points per attempt numbers.
Additionally, I believe safeties on PATs would earn 1 point. Imagine the drama on this possible scenario: Team A lines up for the PAT. Team B gains possession of the ball (inteception/fumble recovery or blocked kick), runs it back and is about to score but fumbles near their goal line. From here, two more possible crazy scenarios open up -Team A recovers and returns it to the opposite end zone, converting their PAT successfully for 2 points after initially thinking it would be a failed attempt. -Team A recovers and returns it to the opposite end zone but backtracks into Team B's end zone and gets tackled for a safety. Team B would get 1 point. Team A can get a 1 point safety by tackling Team B after they've gained possession and backtracked into their own end zone. [youtube]4yzcxyosmo8[/youtube]
Well . .. you have a 1 point lead Do you kick the field goal . . . knowing a field goal will mean a loss. Do you go for 2 to Make it so a Field Goal will only tie you . . but an interception and run back means that you will lose. Rocket River
Keep in mind that outside of the ball placement, this is how it has always been in college football. But you don't really see teams do anything differently there. The most memorable was Texas vs USC in the national title game. Texas took the 1 pt lead with 19 seconds left and then went for 2.
