Studies has been done on "hot hands" in basketball. Conclusion is that is a myth. The paper: http://wexler.free.fr/library/files/gilovich%20(1985)%20the%20hot%20hand%20in%20basketball.%20on%20the%20misperception%20of%20random%20sequences.pdf
20 shots is an extremely low sample size for a 3pt shooter. Look at Tyson Chandler's FG% as an example for the past 5 seasons (a guy who does not create his own shot): 66.6%, 59.3%, 63.8%, 67.9%, 65.4%. Average: 64.6%, standard deviation 3.3%. Trevor Ariza 3pt % past 5 seasons: 35.0% 40.7% 36.4% 33.3% 30.3% Average: 35.14% standard deviation 3.85% Their SDEV # isn't too different but if you do a ratio of SDEV/AVG for Chandler you get 0.051 and for Ariza you get .109. What this means is that in terms of scoring production, Ariza is about twice the variance over a 5 year stretch than a player like Chandler, which is to be expected for a guy who shoots a lot of slightly positive value 3's but not at an ultra elite level, just very well for a mid-salary defensive specialist. The good news with Ariza is he shot 555 3's during the regular season and 442 last season with the Wizards at an overall rate of 37.5%. Almost 1000 3's is a pretty big sample size, so for Ariza over a given season you could expect something like a 33-40%. Of course he will slump, but the NBA regular season is 6 months long and he should get to the long run faster than most low volume 3pt shooters. The good and bad news with the Rockets is that if they shoot at the most positive end of variance they can beat just about anyone in a 7 game series, but if they shoot poorly they have no chance of beating anyone. Given that they aren't the favorites to win it all this year, this is a positive situation since their game style allows them to 'get lucky' over a short term period (potentially 20-25 games or so).
has nothing to do with the coaching, especially harden, that guy is given the greenlight to do whatever he wants
I'm using the 55% 2pt FG as an example for how a team like Memphis might play where their main threats are Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph who don't take many 3s. The hypothetical question is if all things were equal would you want to only take 55% 2PT shots or 37% 3PT shots. Mathematically you'd stand to gain more overall by taking 37% 3PT shots but that comes with the price of much higher variance as I hopefully illustrated in the above example with Ariza vs Tyson Chandler. The Rockets do have a nice balance with Howard (59% FG past 2 seasons) as well as TJones/Smoove and Harden who finish around the basket at a good clip. The exciting/frustrating factor for the Rockets is they shoot 35.1% from 3PT and take 26.2 per game on average, which makes them high variance. For ex: if they shoot 26 3's and make 30% that is worth 23.4 pts. if they take 26 3's and make 40% that is worth 31.2 pts. The difference is only 2.6 3pt made per game but that translates to a difference of 7.8 points which is enough to win or lose almost every close game. So if the Rockets can go on an extended run of shooting 40% (the positive end of SDEV) they have a decent shot of winning it all, but if they go to the negative end of SDEV and shoot 30% they will probably be out in the next round or two. Of course, if the Rockets do get hot from 3's then that will open up the lanes more for Harden/Howard, which is why the 3 is such a dangerous weapon for the underdog when it's falling.
they get plenty of good threes but dont make enough to be a big threat. they also get enough good looks when he's on the bench. they're just not good shooters. bev a vareer 36% which is avg. ariza is looking like his year in washington was a fluke, shooting the three at league average or below in every other seasonn. papa and brewer are below league average. there's a bunch of shooters on this team but they cant handle big shooting load. this team just needs one more good 3pt shooter who can take on a 5-7 threes a game average to solidify their offense. dont need a big three, i dont even want that.
The hot hand has been studied many times in basketball, usually concluding that a player isn't more likely to make a shot after making the previous one. However, this is complicated by the fact that players often take more difficult shots when they feel "hot" and defense will vary during a game. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304071004579409071015745370 It's hard to say that there is no effect, but if there is, it's very unlikely that it affects shooting by more than a couple of percentage points. In short, if you're open, shoot the ball.
