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BR article with details on DH's defensive and offensive impact

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by pearlon, Apr 23, 2015.

  1. pearlon

    pearlon Member

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    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2439920-turns-out-dwight-howard-can-still-star-for-houston-rockets

    I was skeptical about the article when I opened it, since it's BR, but the author makes some very astute observations and conclusions with stats and analytics to back them up (Barkley would scuff).

    Basically he validates that 1) DH DRASTICALLY improves our defense when he's on the court and 2) he makes the offense much easier to execute when's on the court. Nothing new here, but nice to see numbers (and videos) illustrating what we observe.

    "Through two games, the Rockets have outscored the Mavericks by 34 points when Howard is on the court and been outscored by 12 when he sits—a net difference of 46 points in 50 minutes. And he’s doing that against Chandler, who is a former DPOY winner himself. But Howard is taking it in stride."

    Enjoy the rest of these extremely fun playoffs, everyone.
     
  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    1) It's time to stop worrying about bleacher report articles. Lots of good writers are there now. No shame in posting in it and no need to qualify anymore.

    2) Good article, thanks for posting!

    3) "Playoffs Dwight"

    [​IMG]
     
  3. pearlon

    pearlon Member

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    One thing the article discusses, something not very often mentioned, is the so called "Morey Zones" being applied on the defensive end. Anyone who follows the Rockets knows that using analytics, the Rockets employ an offensive scheme where they go for shots in zones where they give the greatest expected returns (probability x outcome). They shoot mainly from inside the paint or from 3. What's not often discussed is that the Rockets force opponents to take shots that's outside of these high expected return zones. And this is where Dwight helps greatly as a defensive post powerhouse and shotblocker. DH allows the 4 other defenders on the Rockets to un-strech the floor, in a "reverse gravity effect", in the words of the author:

    "That’s a defensive player who is such a deterrent at the rim that he frees up his teammates to play tighter perimeter defense. Opponents are afraid to go inside so they hover around the perimeter. Thus, defenders are able to stick closer, go over picks and sag less off of shooters because they can trust the safety net behind them. In essence, a player with defensive gravity “shrinks the court.""

    Pretty cool stuff!
     
  4. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    Interesting stuff. I had never read it but always thought their defensive scheme must include an inverse of their offense scheme (forcing long 2's). This explains why the rockets are up there in 3 point defense. Combine stout perimeter defense with Dwight in the middle and you get the less efficient long 2
     
  5. pearlon

    pearlon Member

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    Precisely
     
  6. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    That's a pretty good article.

    The "reverse gravity" he talked about was the same thing Kirk Goldsberry termed "the Dwight Howard effect."

    The one thing I would question would be his discussion of Dwight's maturity. Dwight has always played great in the playoffs. He's averaged 20pt, 14reb, and 3 blocks with a TS% of 61.4%.
     
  7. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I've noticed that for awhile now, though the writer captured it better than I could.

    The Rockets always seem to sag off players in the mid-range area unless it's a star. You have to play up on the Dirks and Currys because they can hit mid-range 2s at a high enough clip to beat you....the vast majority of players can't.
     

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