The Next Moreyball Innovation That Should Happen Now

One thing I don't like is intentionally missing FTS as it would never get our guys in rhythm and doesn't give them that additional practice in game time situations

 

so they should practice throwing it overhanded as hard as they can at the rim and hope it creates a crazy bounce off the rim?

or should they lob it underhanded as high as they can, giving everyone ample time to get in position to rebound as the ball has longer hang time before hopefully hitting the rim? (shooter can't leave his ft stripe until after ball hits the rim)

 

The problem is when bad free throw shooters intentionally try to miss, they go in.

 

A poor FT shooter can't even come close to making a FT (look at Dorsey's airballs) let alone shoot the ball in such a precise way that you secure an offensive board.

 

If it works enough time where the other team who is hacking is trading a free throw point for a dog fight to get the rebound....it may reduce the incentive to hack

 

Two birds, one stone

 

You can shoot a FT from anywhere behind the line, right? There's probably a spot near the 3pt line that results in the highest % of offensive rebounds and/or long rebounds. Just shoot from there.

 

Good free throw shooters should not do this as there is a good chance that they will get the 2 pts in the trip to the line and not make it worth it for an outside shot at getting an additional 2 or 3 points aside from the 1st free throw.

I think it could be an interesting experiment with poor free throw shooters IF they can make the first one. However, would the odds of getting the offensive rebound be less than the percentage of them making the free throw?

 

That's not how statistics work. Regardless of the outcome of the first FT attempt, the probabilities for the second attempt do not change. If anything, after making the first free throw, the probability of the second attempt going in may increase, depending on how much you believe in the idea of a hot hand.

 

How often does an average offensive rebounding team expect to get the rebound off a missed ft?

 

Let's do the math:

Rockets grab 27% of offensive rebounds. They score 1.07 points per possession. So that is 1.07*.27 = .2889 expected points per possession on a second missed FT. This means the FT shooter would have to be worse than a 29% FT shooter for this to make sense long term. This is a really dumb idea.

 

Shoot Harder!! {clap clap}

 

Credit for trying to be innovative, but I completely disagree with this method. 1) You'd ask one of the best scorers in Harden to intentionally give up points at the line. 2) You assume the player makes the first free throw. If Dwight or Dorsey (really any big on the team) could make the first free throw then they wouldn't be asked to intentionally miss the second. 3) If the average points per possession is 1 then why miss out on doubling your points for that given possession?

Here's a method I hope the Rockets implement: make both free throws. I don't care if Dorsey has to shoot underhand, just get it done.

 

I'm gonna say no...

 

Better Idea: Put Dorsey, Dwight, Josh, Capela and Jones on the floor together, then whoever gets hacked falls down and pretends to break both of his arms so the opposing coach has to choose a replacement off the bench to shoot the FTs.

 

Over the last five years, the league average for offensive rebounds grabbed off missed free throws is 14.8%, so the FT shooter has to be Capela-level bad.