And yet we have Smith, TJ, and DMo spread out to shoot threes, when as bigs they're supposed to be able handle themselves in paint and probably draw a lot of fouls. So, they can shoot a much longer shot and choke on a fundamental shot they'll see more often. Dorsey and Capela, even though they're pretty green for playoffs just flatout cannot be put on the floor. And their only skill is to dunk at the basket, so just foul them, and get the ball back. It's absolutely going to limit us in the playoffs in various ways.
Free throw shooting cost us game 1 of the play offs vs Portland last season. The exact cause of that loss was the inability of Dwight to hit a free throw when we were up by a bunch in the 4th quarter. If he hits his free throws we win game one going away and then it's a different series. If we don't hit free throws in this years play offs it will probably cost us at least a game which could decide a series. Free throw shooting has kept so many teams in games with us when they should have been put away.
Hope not, may factor into a game or two. Dorsey must have pictures of Morey with 2 monkeys, a zerbra, and unicorn! No way should be play a minute ever, I would rather go small with Tjones at center. Also, I understand what Prigs brings to the game, however, this is the 2015 NBA and he can't shoot to save his life. Dorsey and Prigs create 4 on 5 matches on offense and disrupts the flow and abillity to score at a high rate. So a lineup of D12, Ariza, Brewer, Harden and Terry may be needed to close out games when we are up.
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i think the hope is that we're healthy going into the playoffs. that means dorsey isn't in the rotation and dmo is. that's a big win at the line. also depending on matchups / situations, we could conceivably field a decent FT shooting group at the end of games with ariza/brewer playing both forward spots. the plan of course should be to win by enough that you don't need the free throws, but some worry that we will see hack-a-rocket earlier in games to disrupt offensive flow, like we've been seeing. to that i say, good. let the other teams get in the penalty and their players in foul trouble. there is no actual evidence of this working to win a game.
I was about to write, the rule needs changing. However, I feel like this is your career profession, you have at least 12 hours a day to work on this. 8 hrs of sleep, 4 hrs of practice, there is no reason that Tjones, JSmith, D12 and Dorsey cannot shoot free throws at a higher clip. 12 hrs a day seems like enough time to at least hit the front of the rim on a free throw attempt.
It's hard to argue against 60% or so being an improvement over 27% or so but forgive me if D-Mo does not inspire confidence in me in solving our big man FT woes.
You might ask "Will poor FT shooting be our downfall like it was for the Cougars in that 1983 NCAA Championship Game?" I hope not, but it could potentially be similar, certainly if opposing coaches have their players foul on purpose like what Jim Valvano had players on his Wolfpack team doing in that NCAA championship game.
Really makes you appreciate 50%. What if we actually have a top secret plan that makes some of these guys look really bad at shooting FTs so that during the playoffs when teams employ the hack-a-____ strategy, it'll blow up in their face. Nah there's no way.
D-Mo and T-Jones need to get it to 70% next season. D-Mo especially needs to work on his free throws. He has amazing touch around the basket and is shooting an astounding 37% from 3 point land, but his free throw percentage is only at 60% which is unacceptable.
agreed. an example is the most recent thunder game when dwight went to the line and bricked both shots.
I hate seeing the "hack a ____" stuff, but they're called FREE throws for a reason. You're playing professional basketball, you should be able to shoot at least a decent percentage. You play in the greatest basketball league in the world, and you get paid to do it. You have time to practice....do you? I often wonder if some players are almost too strong.....Howard, Dorsey, maybe TJones. They shoot it and it just goes flying. Would a small step back be beneficial? It almost seems like the some bigger players these days know they can get by on their size alone. Why practice free throws? Of course, there are exceptions. I'd love to see a league free throw shooting percentage for the last 20 years or so. I bet it has continually dropped. It may have gone up some years, but overall it has made a pretty decent drop. To answer the question....yes, I think our free throw shooting will be our downfall. It will cost us at least a game or two, and (knock on wood), it would not surprise me one bit if it cost us a series. Also, I could see it going the other way. Our bad free throw shooting could cost us, but James relying so much on getting to the line could cost us as well. With the refs swallowing their whistles, and the game slowing down, who knows what could happen.
I'm assuming we'll have DMo for the playoffs. In that case, I doubt we see much of Dorsey when we shore up the rotations unless we have an unforeseen injury.
It's playing within the rules. The shame and awfulness of the "hack-a" strategy is that there are professionals being paid millions of dollars a year missing Free Throws, a shot that middle school children and high schoolers hit with regularity. Make your goddam free throws, or at least 1/2 always, and the hacking stops. Shoot underhanded, you are embarrassing yourself airballing FTs. No. They should learn to shoot underhanded. Call Rick Barry in, will have them shooting 7/10 in no time.
Dorsey - Worst FT shooter in history with his 28% with at least 75 FTA. Is one the top 6 worst FT shooters in history if it's lowered to 50 FTA. (here's the stats: http://bkref.com/tiny/5tuPL) Old Rocket Larry Hughes has the worst FT% with 50 FTA with 24% in his H-town days (90-91) Also Capela - hit around pretty much 60% (0.596) from the D league and his ft% in the NBA is still 0% Definitely a major weakness.
Two worst FT shooters won't play, but I think there's a chance Smith might see limited time too depending on the matchup.
Here's some food for thought: This team is shooting 71.8% from the line. That means a possession that winds up in 2 free throws yields 1.436 Points Per Possession. Those are the most efficient offensive possessions for the team. The second most efficient possession for the team is when we wind up getting a shot at the rim. On those opportunities we shoot 59.9% as a team per NBASAVANT.com. Throw in 8% and 1's made (12%*70% and rounding down) and those offensive possessions yield a PPP of 1.28 Points Per Possession. The 3rd most efficient possession for this team is the corner 3-ball. We hit those at a 38.58% rate which yields up 1.16 PPP. Throw in a few And 1's out there (not as many as at the rim obviously) and we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2 Points Per Possession out there. AFTER these 3 a major drop-off in efficiency occurs. The 4th most efficient possession for this team is the above the break 3-ball. We shoot those at 33.01% as a team which translates to right at .99 Points per Possession. Throw in a couple and 1's and you're right around 1 Point Per Possession. After this the possessions gets dreadfully worse and the end of the food chain here is turnovers which of course yield 0 Points Per Possession. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ More facts: We are 21-20 against teams with winning records. We are 14-9 against teams with winning records when we shoot over 70% from the free throw line. We are 7-11 against teams with winning records when we shoot less than 70% from the line. We are 12-6 against teams with winning records when we shoot 24 or more free throws in the game. We are 9-14 against teams with winning records when we shoot 23 or less free throws in a game. We average 27.3 FTA's in our 21 wins versus teams with a winning record. We average 20.5 FTA's in our 20 losses versus teams with a winning record. In our 21 quality wins versus teams with winning records, our FTr is 0.33. In our 20 losses versus teams with winning records, our FTr is 0.24. We are 13-5 against teams with winning records when our FTr is 0.275 or higher. We are 8-15 against teams with winning record when our FTr is below 0.275. Now more specifically: James Harden accounts for almost 40% of our free throws taken (39.7%) We are 12-4 against teams with winning records when James Harden shoots 10 or more free throws. We are 9-16 against teams with winning records when James Harden shoots less than 10 free throws. =============================================== =============================================== My conclusion: If the bigs shoot free throws at a rate of around 55% and Harden still gets his possessions and gets to the line just as much and we still shoot the same volume of 3-balls (3PAr)...then it won't cost us a series. Those possessions will cut into our lower efficiency possessions, midrange shots, shots outside the low blocks, etc. that we don't hit close to 50% anyways. But if the bigs shoot lower than 50% or lower and Harden's FTr is cut down significantly and/or our 3-ball rate (3PAr, specifically our corner 3-ball rate) is cut down significantly then those combined factors could hurt us in a playoff series. The overriding factor is that we get to the free throw line and shoot free throws. Donatas and Terrence are both right around 60%. It's the other guys that are laggards. And Dwight and Smoove are still above 50% so as long as their free throw attempts do not eat into James' possessions we should be ok. ========================================== Two factors that have to be strategized: 1. The hack-a-Howard/Smith/Dorsey/Capela strategy. - - I think the answer is to keep doing what we're doing. Running pick-and-roll for those guys. Don't let them handle and post up. Pick and roll or spot up 3-balls in the corner. If we are in the bonus then gotta get Donuts on the post offensively. Howard is a garbage man and Smith is a spot-up corner 3-ball shooter in that scenario. 2. The officials not calling fouls by the opponent against James at the same rate as the regular season. - - I think the answer is keep doing what we're doing. Get to the rim and finish. Create the contact ourselves and move opponents out. Finish. Keep shooting the corner 3's. Ratchet up our banging on the boards and maximize rebound rate. And then on the defensive end get even more physical. You have to assume the officials are going to call the game fairly. So if they are letting the contact go on James then get physical on the defensive end. =============================================== And finally, I think we all know where this is going in the playoffs. Teams are going to try to take the ball out of Harden's hands. Because as Harden goes so goes our offense. I fully expect them to hound him 85 feet and to attempt to trap him when he comes across half-court. And that, my friends, is where McHale had better have answers. You can't expect Harden to split traps in the playoffs over and over again and maintain his efficiency and this team to maintain it's offensive efficiency. Gonna have to beat the traps consistently and then get the ball to Harden again in the triple threat. IF we can do that consistently well...we've got a chance to win it a championship.
Good in depth look thanks for the numbers. McHale has his answer in beating the traps this year, it's the Greyhound. He'll burn teams that trap early.
