What are the triggers in our negotiation w/ Posey?

The qualifying offer means the Rockets have the right to match any contract offer from another team. They are free to work out any other deal that they desire, or Posey can choose to sign the qualifying offer extended to him by the Rockets.

 

I think that JP really wants to play here. However, he is a business man and needs to get paid. I am hoping that we get him for around 4-5 mill per year. Maybe dreaming to low, but I can dream.

 

Achebe - to tell the truth, it could play out for a long time. I'm not sure there's many teams out there with money to offer him. I don't see how SA would want him with Bowen on their roster and others requiring new contracts soon. Can't see him going back to Denver, or over to Utah, or to any of the other squads with cap room.

It's probably going to end with Posey back in Houston...but it looks like it could be awhile, unless one side takes the initiative in negotiations.

 

I made this mistake read of the rule once before, too. And, ironically, I remember you being the one who corrected me.

The rule is that a qualifying offer is a prerequite of claiming your ROFR, and must be given by June 30th; otherwise, the player become unrestriced on July 1st. The $ amount is a based on draft position, and is strictly a one-yr contract. If the player gets no other offers, the qualifying offer converts to a real one-yr contract (see Kandi).

Now, that's all it means. It doesn't mean we can't offer him another contract or that we have to wait to match an offer. If the ROFR team signs the player first, that's it, it's over. All other teams go via the route of signing an Offer Sheet.

Note all the retricted agents who signed with their same team, like Kenny Thomas signed.

 

If we make no other offers and Posey signs our qualifying offer, he becomes an unrestricted free agent next year and can sign with anybody he pleases.

If we make a ane offer that is better the the qualifying offer, what happens at the end of that contract (in terms of free agent status)?

 

Several teams have interest in Posey but have him as their backup plan. Thus his signing hinges mostly on the Clippers. If they match the offers for Brand, Maggette, and eventually Odom then teams like Miami plan to go after Posey. Posey's agent is gambling that someone with capspace will end up going after him to drive his value up. After those teams use up their capspace his value will drop dramatically since the max anyother team can offer is the MCE which the Rockets would obviously match. His best move is to sign a reasonable contract now slightly over the MCE before his stock drops.

 

That would be a great plan for Posey if he could find someone to give him 4.9 mil a year or more but how many teams would give Posey that much money? I don't think any.

Posey will end up signing for around 3 million a year IMO.

 

Too bad the whole league is waiting on the Clippers. I'm tired of waiting for Posey to make a decision. I hope he gets around the midlevel exception from us.
heypartner, u mentioned that the qualifying offer is determined by their draft position. does this apply to second round picks, or do they usually sign different kinds of contracts (i.e. w/o restricted free agent possibilities) since theirs aren't guaranteed? sorry if this is an obvious question or if i just answered myself.

 

My guess is we will sign Posey for $20mil/5 year. His stock has fallen a lot due to fewer and fewer teams have room to make big offers.

 

Anything over 3.5 to 4million is overpaying. We have enough overpayed players on this roster.

 

my guess is, Scrooge Les, is hoping things drag out as long as possible, the longer it goes on the lower other teams will be willing to offer and the less the rockets will have to match, my guess is he will end up signing the qualfying offer and be an unrestricted FA next year

 

What contracts has "scrooge Les" refused to pay?

 

of course not in the past, but i think it's the Luxury Tax that is the issue

 

Pat,

This is the last summer than Posey can be a restricted free agents, in all cases except the unlikely scenario that he signs no offer sheets and refuses to sign the qualifying offer with us, or any other contract. In that scenario, he would be unsigned, and wouldn't be playing in the league...so we could continuously reassert our ROFR status until he returns to the league. So, for all practical purposes, 1st rounders will only be restricted once in their careers.

cparka, this is only a rookie scale on first rounders, to including the 5th yr qualifying offer.

the only other type of restricted FAs are all veterans with 3 or less years (except 1st rounders whose team did not exercise their 4th yr option--(Collier for instance is an unrestricted 3yr vet) There is nothing special about 2nd rounders...they just happen to be free agents with 3 or less yrs. Ginobili will be one, soon.

so, to answer your question, qualifying offers to restricted FAs with 3 or less years is 125% of previous salary.

 

heypartner, thanks for clearing that up for me.