Analytics on ref Ken Mauer: no surprise he didn't call a foul

Don't know if anyone saw this, but check this out about Ken Mauer...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/bull50">@bull50</a> No big surprise Mauer didn't call a foul on <a href="https://twitter.com/JHarden13">@JHarden13</a> drive. Mauer ranks low calling shooting fouls. If only Harden had known that</p>&mdash; RefAnalytics (@RefAnalytics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RefAnalytics/status/573591695662579712">March 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Mauer was the ref McHale was complaining to after the game. He was probably in the best position to make that call.

Rather than expecting the refs to get calls right and complaining about it all the time, it seems like it would make sense for teams to understand the refs' tendencies and "playing the percentages" like they do when defending (or attacking) opposing players.

But for some reason NBA teams seem reluctant to use analytics about the refs like they do with the players. It's like, "What I don't know won't hurt me." But the data exists!

 

In a late-game situation when you've got the ball and you see where the refs are lining up, you can probably do some of what your suggesting. Doing it every possession may be more complex unless all 3 refs exhibit the same tendencies.

I followed that YMM guy b/c I'm Asian-American, too (and liked Yao), then followed him when he mentioned he was doing the ref analytics thing. I hadn't seen him tweet about the Rockets much until this one today, so I hadn't brought it up in this forum.

FWIW: I created this handle after we let Lin go the first time and then Morey ultimately decided it was worth bringing him back on that 3-year deal. Now I hear once Lin's 3-year deal is over in LA, he could become a backup again here.

I know there are still lots of critics of Lin, and my handle is polarizing for some reason, so I don't really care to get beat up from the haters. But say what you will, even Charlie Palillo, who bashed Lin (and now Beverley), admits that Lin was a solid backup. But let's move on from all that...maybe I should create a new handle so people don't get distracted with the Lin thing.

 

Are you kidding that NBA fouls are more 'standard'? You contradicted yourself from one sentence to another. There is so much subjectivity in how fouls are called, like the phrase "ticky tack" and "touch" fouls versus "they're letting them play tonight," and then you agreed with what I'm saying when you say "NBA refs got to be more consistent between each other..." So we are saying the same thing.

The question is if that's ever going to happen since refs are human and officiating is very subjective. It hasn't happened yet, and probably never will, so the next question is should teams whine about it, or use the data to their advantage. It's sad that refs will never be perfect, just like players never will be, so maybe using data and stats on referees is the way to go. Something to think about.

 

Very good question. There's probably some analytics that could be done to help answer that question. Also, a similar question is to maybe hold back on driving to the basket too many times throughout a game since the refs may reward you "too often" with a foul (in their minds), and then when you really need a bucket in a late-game situation, they may not reward you because they feel subconsciously they may have given you too many trips to the free throw line, and they swallow their whistle because of classic omission bias.

It's kind of like with players who make the same move too many times and "go to the well" too often and start missing when they really need buckets late in a close game. Or a team that falls in love with 3-pointers in the first half, then can't hit any of them late in a game when they need it. Perhaps they feel subconsciously they have "used up" all their good fortune and don't have confidence they can keep hitting them. Maybe refs think the same way in rewarding players.

The psychological aspect of how players and referees react when they've had done the same thing repeatedly in a game would be fascinating to study. There's probably lots of data for players to do a study like that. It would be interesting if there's data on referees to do that.