Yes, the power should be impressive next season, and that's not even including Singleton who everybody is down on right now (for good reason), but possesses big time pop. The problem is getting guys on base. For all the complaints we have about Fowler and his range, at this point we desperately need his OBP in the lineup. Altuve should get on also, and that leaves Springer as the wild card. He's gonna hit for power, that's not in doubt, but his OBP is. If he can maintain a .360+ OBP, our top 5 is gonna be absolutely lethal.
I've always enjoyed people completely misreading/understanding Moneyball. The book/concept was never exclusively about OB%; it's about finding some piece of the game that the league is collectively undervaluing that a team can build around cheaply. Yes, at the time the book was written, the A's had landed on OB% - but once the league adjusts and starts to value (ie pay for) OB%, the A's/Moneyball teams move on to something else. Anyway, it sure looks like the Astros have picked power as an undervalued commodity than can invest in cheaply, doesn't it? Does any other team have this much power? If Singleton rebounds, they could have four guys with 25+ HRs this year. And Lowrie hit 16 in MMP a few years ago in a relatively small sample size. If he totals 600+ PAs (which is his 2-year average in Oakland), he could blast 20-25. too.
An off the field side effect of that new undervalued commodity is that it will help bring the casual fans back more quickly if they're competing. Fans dig the long ball!
CF Fowler 2B Altuve RF Springer DH Carter LF Gattis 1B Singleton C Castro SS Lowrie 3B Dominguez That's a really great lineup. 2013 Dominguez please return
3-4-5-6 could be a real boom or bust middle of the order. Could see a lot of 1-2-3 innings with 3 K's if they are all off at the same time and come up in an inning. Hopefully, their slump cycles don't synchronize :grin:
Am I crazy for thinking Singleton has a great chance at turning this around? He had a .238 BAbip last year after having a .316 in all 2013 & a .350 (WOW) in 2012. This guy can sting the ball and should bounce back if he can keep his K's down as well. Also, the guy is no sloth as a runner it seems. To keep this on track, I mention this because we realistically do have 4 players that can hit 30+ homers. Springer, Carter, Gattis, and Singleton can be a salty group of hitters
I think they will go with something similar to that, but based on the current roster I'd have Dominguez on the bench, Lowrie at 3B and Marwin at SS. There was too much upercut in his swing for me. I think he needs to level it out a bit to make better contact. He's strong enough to hit HRs on a line drive.
No not a all there is a chance the he does turn it around as well as Dominguez who also may hit 20+ hrs .
this is interesting, Lunhow's a money ball guy, and I thought high OBP is what he'd target. Instead we're collecting a bunch of HR hitters. I wonder if that is the trend like 3 pointers. Like even if we set records in Ks, he HRs will produce more runs over a course of the season?
As Hey Now! said earlier, Moneyball doesn't focus on one particular parameter. It focuses on whatever an UNDERVALUED parameter at the time is. At the time of the book, yes, OBP was what was being pushed. However, it seems like now that undervalued commodity (at least according to the Astros) is power, therefore we are stockpiling as much power as we can while still being cost-effective. Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but I certainly like the approach. Plus, this moves us towards being a legitimate MLB team again, and that's always a good thing.
There is the possibilty that the Astros are trying to create a monopoly on an overvalued commodity. Acquiring Gattis gives the Astros a 20% market share on right handed power. Also, the Crawford boxes gives the Astros a benefit for right handed power. There is a decent chance the Astros trade Gattis or Carter for a 3B or LF that is even more valuable that what Astros gave up for Gattis. There has been speculation that Astros are acquiring bullpen pitchers to flip for prospects at the trade deadline.
My thought is that power has become rare over the last 5-7 years. So it's not like OBP where no one realized its objective value as a skill. Instead, I think people aren't giving it enough weight due to its relative scarcity in the market, and the Astros are trying to capitalize on that imbalance. Undervalued would still be correct, but for a very different reason.
There were 11 players that hit 30+ HRs last year in MLB. It's possible the Astros could have three this year (Carter, Gattis and Springer) with two more (Singleton and Lowrie) who have the potential to hit 20-25. It also makes me think that if that is indeed the plan, then Dexter Folwer is a vitally important component and there's no way they're letting him go. Fowler + Altuve need to be on base for the plan to really work. What's interesting... the 3-6 hitters (assuming some combo of Springer, Carter, Gattis, Singleton) might very well hit A LOT of solor HRs as these guys tend to be HR or bust hitters. (ETA: in fact, thinking about it... they may insert Lowrie somewhere in the middle of all these dingers to give the line-up a little bit of a "reset" - ie get someone one base. So maybe it's Fowler, Altuve, Springer, Carter, Lowrie, Gattis, Singleton.) But, yeah - they clearly have a power-centric approach, assuming the roster is largely set.
My problem with this trade: I like getting a player like Gattis, and the message it sends, but I think we gave up too much. I agree with Keith Law's article. The same package, plus maybe a tad more, couldve landed johnny cueto-esque player
Part of Gattis' value is that he's club controlled the next 4 years. They might have been able to get a Cueto, but they'd either lose him next year or have to pay him a fortune. If they really do want Cueto, they can just wait a year and pay him that fortune without giving up any prospects.
Agreed. It's also a question of what they can get *right now*, and I'm sure the Astros called around or have a feel of the current value of these guys. If Folty (specifically, of the 3) faltered in Spring Training, his value could have gone down further and forced the Astros to wait until he had another chance against ML pitching.
Fowler, Altuve, Springer, Singleton, and Lowrie should all be average to above average OBP. Astros add a good OBP 3B, and they should as a team be near average. If Moran develops, Astros could have that late this season, early next.
Correa is still on his way up too. It really is nice to see all the young guys come flying up the ranks.
Of the 125 games Castro played last year, 111 of them were at the catcher position. Of the 114 games he played the year before, 95 of them were at catcher. Historically, he has hit better when playing catcher than when not, but it is a small sample size. I just wonder if Conger was acquired to keep Castro off of his knees a little more. Back to Gattis and to tie it all in: I am most curious about the DH position. Carter, Gattis, Castro, and Singleton will all likely see time there, and I am curious as to how they are going to split it.
