Walked outside at about 7 this morning...25 degrees. Checked the greenhouse, 1 little electric spaceheater set on low...72 degrees. I'm thinking about putting a cot in there.
Morning briefing from Jeff: Spoiler Strong arctic cold front will arrive this morning. Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for tonight for area north of HWY 105 Wind Advisory in effect all counties this afternoon Gale Warning in effect all coastal and offshore waters today and tonight Freezing rain and sleet possible north of a line from Columbus to Livingston Friday night/Saturday. Discussion: Massive 1055mb arctic high crashing through the plains with leading edge of the arctic front approaching the northern counties of SE TX. Dense cold air mass is lagging the wind shift by about 3-4 hours and the onset of strong cold air advection and falling temperatures will be midday across SE TX. Very strong winds of 25-35mph with gust to 40mph will onset with the cold air advection especially along and west of I-45 and across the coastal counties. Cold air advection will drive the freezing line southward this afternoon and into SE TX this evening and across nearly all of the area by Thursday morning. Still looking at some mid and high level clouds and gusty winds overnight to help prevent the bottom from falling out of the temperatures…but a widespread freeze is nearly certain at this point. Winds in the 10-15mph range overnight will lower wind chill values into the 10’s across much of the area Thursday morning. Main forecast concerns this morning as how cold tonight and then how cold this weekend with a secondary surge of arctic air and P-type across the region. Low Temperatures Thursday Morning: North of HWY 105: 19-25 North of US 59: 26-30 Inside Beltway 8: 29-32 N of HWY 35: 29-32 Beaches: 32-35 Area north of Hwy 105 will likely experience sub freezing conditions for 8-14 hours with hard freeze conditions of 25 or below for up to 2-6 hours. North of US 59 will likely see freezing temperatures of 6-8 hours. Precautions for sub-freezing temperatures should be rushed to completion today. Friday-Saturday: Weak short wave will cross the area Friday morning with sub freezing temperatures in place. Feel the low level air mass will be very dry and little if any precipitation will reach the ground. If it does it would likely be in the College Station to Livingston area and fall as sleet or sleet/freezing rain mix. Think this is overall a very low threat. Bigger concern is taking shape for Friday night into Saturday as a stronger short wave and secondary arctic surge moves across the region. Will have to go ahead and introduce freezing/frozen precipitation into the area for Friday night and Saturday morning. Latest guidance has been trending colder and colder with incoming secondary arctic surge Friday afternoon and now has at least the northern ½ of the area subject to freezing temperatures overnight Friday into Saturday morning. GFS is most aggressive in pushing the surface freezing line to I-10 and even south of that to the west of Houston supporting freezing rain very far south. Other models including the NAM are warmer by a degree or two and keep the precipitation liquid over Harris County. I am becoming concerned that the models may be under-estimating the incoming cold air slightly since the trend since yesterday has been for colder and colder. Additionally very low dewpoints (25-30) suggest a bit of room for evaporational cooling of the air column to near freezing or below even if guidance temperatures suggest above freezing. As for P-types warm nose in the mid levels supports a freezing rain sounding with a shallow freezing layer near the surface. Warm air advection processes will attempt to erode this surface freezing layer…but it is going to be hard to do. Could see some sleet mixed with the onset of the precipitation Friday night, but the overall profile is a freezing rain one. For now will go with freezing rain and sleet mix Friday night into Saturday morning north of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston with some ice accumulation expected on elevated surfaces. Bridges and overpasses will be “very cold” from the hard freeze tonight in this area so ice accumulation on these surface is certainly possible. Will keep all precipitation south of the Columbus to Livingston line liquid for now, but any additional cooling trends in the model guidance will require the freezing rain line to be adjusted southward close to metro Houston and the I-10 corridor. Forecasted QPF amounts are concerning especially when dealing with freezing rain as 1-2 inches of liquid are expected over the region from late Friday-Monday. Critical period of Friday night/Saturday morning suggest at least .25-.50 of an inch of liquid QPF across the region and some of this will be in the form of ice across the northern counties. Would like to be more certain on surface temperatures before trying to hammer out ice accumulations. Not sure temperatures will warm much if at all on Saturday and this could linger freezing rain and ice potential into Saturday night and Sunday allowing greater accumulation amounts across those northern areas. As with all winter weather events in this area there is a large amount of uncertainty and the difference of 1-2 degrees will make the difference between an ice storm and all rain. This is looking more and more like a legitimate concern for Friday Night. Definitely pay attention to the weather today through tomorrow for updates. I will put updates here as things change
That's because the freezing line is going to stay well north of Houston. David, it seems like you frequently cherry pick forecasts.
How is the freezing line going to stay well north of Houston when the temperature when you wake up in the morning will be in the mid 20s
I don't consider a low of 36 on Friday night well over freezing. If you had any knowledge you would know the "wet bulb effect" is what you need to worry about. Sure the NWS shows the low at 36 with rain. If the dew point is sitting around 25, the rain will cool the surface temperature towards the dew point. That is how 99% of ice/snow storms happen in this part of the world. If you read the discussions they are mentioning these as a possibility for our northern counties. Computer models are never 100% accurate 24 hours out, much less 72 hours. A few degree temperature change or an increase in QPF is all it will take to cause a drastic change in the weather. Models have been going back and forth with this event. Last nights had freezing rain all over the Houston Metroplex. Today they are a few degrees colder but less precipitation. Things will change with each run and that is something you need to understand. There is no cherry picking, it is providing the information available at the time. I don't make forecast, that is what the NWS gets paid to do. Tonight's model runs could show 3" of snow for Houston or it could not show any precipitation at all. Time will tell. Predicting winter is Houston is like predicting an earthquake. It is almost impossible.
Fine, I will make a prediction: there will be no freezing rain, sleet, or snow in the Houston Metroplex.
Well, at least the wind stopped for a while. 30 mph is not fun no matter the temp. It's all of 31 degrees right now, will be a balmy 22 when I have to head outside in the morning. Hopefully no pipes have burst and I don't have to play impromptu plumber. Next 48 hours will be really fun getting around in the sleet and ice.
i just got out the shower so i won't have to take one in the morning, brehs. don't ask me what i'm wearing.
Yeah it was pretty damn cold this morning coming into work but nothing unbearable. This weekend looks like a good one to stay indoors watching football though.
I fly to central Wisconsin on Saturday. It's currently -9. I'll be there for 6 days and it's showing the temp will never get above 13 the entire time I'm there.
