[2014-2015] Texas Winter Thread

Uprising · Dec 9, 2014

Where the hell is winter?! It's so dang warm outside....

conquistador#11 · Dec 9, 2014

i want to wear my sweaters =(
god, help!
christmas music isn't as enjoyable when it's 70 out

Hustle Town · Dec 9, 2014

davidio840 said: ↑

LULZ!! It was a 240 hour model run which is 10 days out! It was pretty chilly this morning

Models have been hinting at a significant pattern change starting this weekend and lasting through the rest of the month. I am waiting on the Euro ensembles today to see if they are on the same page as the GFS. The GFS ensembles show an Alaskan ridge with potential cross polar flow setting up towards the latter third of the month.

The CFS, for the last two cycles, has virtually all of North America with below to much below normal temperature anomalies. The active southern stream storms will likely lead to a stepping down process with each storm system dragging a bit more cold air S into the Lower 48. This fast moving parade of storms will move across California, the Desert SW, Northern Mexico, the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains into the foreseeable future. As the Polar jet buckles in about a week, look for the process to accelerate the whole scale pattern change across much of North America.

Time will tell but this weekend appears to be the start of a significant pattern change. I do think the latter half of this month will be below normal temperature wise with higher than normal precipitation.
Click to expand...

6-10 day temperature

8-14 day

LonghornFan · Dec 9, 2014

David is trolling us!

DonkeyMagic · Dec 9, 2014

i'm more concerned with Colorado weather and planned ski trip.

davidio840 · Dec 9, 2014

mlaitkep said: ↑

6-10 day temperature

8-14 day

Click to expand...

I will bet money that doesn't happen. There is a reason they are "probabilities". CPC maps are always wrong regarding temperature and precipitation after about 4-5 days. You almost never see Alaska above avg and then the lower 48 showing above avg. It is one or the other 99% of the time. The CFS model I was referring to (link) does show most of the country under cooler temps. Click loop to see the entire frames.

Referring to the map below, a front moves through Sunday/Monday, with another one behind it coming from California (as I said earlier) and look what is up in Alaska heading down this way. A massive front.

I never said it will be freezing cold outside or snowing next week lol! I am stating a weather pattern change is coming (can we say El Nino? I would bet a Modoki El Nino). As these systems coming in one after another is typical of an El Nino.

Nobody wants to read THIS but Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 have cooled, while Region 4 is the same. Which are good signs indicating a Modoki El Nino.

Here is a link to the 12z GFS run and you can see the systems one after another crossing the country. Now one thing I will say, these systems moving across will cool it down and bring rain. Every model run always underestimates the cold weather (CPC maps included).

If one of these happens to be a cold core low then things will get interesting. For example, December 10, 2008. Snowed in Houston. It was 78 DEGREES on December 9, 2008 (source). A cold core Low moved over with a front, the precipitation cooled down the atmosphere as it fell as rain then sleet and out of nowhere, it is snowing. Everything has to line up perfectly for it to snow here. I found the NWS weather statement regarding the event:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008
…SNOW FALL TOTALS FOR 10 DECEMBER 2008…
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS YESTERDAY AND HAS PRODUCED A BROAD AREA OF SNOWFALL FOR
EARLY DECEMBER. THIS TIES THE MARK FOR THE EARLIEST SNOW FALL IN
THE HOUSTON AREA FOR DECEMBER. IT HAD ALSO SNOWED ON DECEMBER 10
IN 1944. LIGHT SNOW FELL DURING THE MORNING OVER PARTS OF
WASHINGTON…BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ON DECEMBER 10TH. SNOW
REDEVELOPED DURING AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVED INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE REGION SAW A
CHANGE OF RAIN AND SLEET TO SNOW BY THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL
WAS AT ITS HEAVIEST BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM LAST NIGHT MAINLY EAST
OF AN INTERSTATE 45 LINE. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A TRACE
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN BRAZORIA…HARRIS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
TO AS MUCH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY. TRACE TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS FELL ON GALVESTON ISLAND WITH GENERALLY AN INCH TO
TWO INCHES OF SNOW FALL FOR GALVESTON COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FALL WAS IN A BAND FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY WHERE
SOME AREAS SAW AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
WHEN DID IT SNOW LAST? SNOW FLURRIES FELL ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON MARCH 7TH 2008 BUT THE LAST
MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURRED ON APRIL 7TH 2007 NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON THAT SATURDAY
BEFORE EASTER.
THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW TO FALL IN THE HOUSTON AREA FELL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE IN 2004. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE A TRACE AT
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT…BUT SOUTHERN SUBURBS LIKE PEARLAND…
WEBSTER AND CLEAR LAKE RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AFFECTED WHARTON…FORT BEND AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES.
FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH…THE LAST LAND FALLING HURRICANE ON GALVESTON
ISLAND BEFORE HURRICANE IKE WAS HURRICANE JERRY IN 1989. THERE
WAS 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW ON DECEMBER 22 1989. HURRICANE ALICIA MADE
LANDFALL IN 1983 AND THERE WERE SEVERAL DAYS WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN
DECEMBER OF 1983. PERHAPS JUST A COINCIDENCE.

Eric Riley · Dec 12, 2014

Seriously. I'm sweating over here.

ynelilvs99 · Dec 13, 2014

Wonder if this means we will see summer weather in March

Kam · Dec 13, 2014

Was at my work Christmas party last night. We hung outside for a decent portion of the evening.

dmc89 · Dec 13, 2014

Feels amazing to work out in this weather. However, it's too warm. Doesn't feel like Christmas time.

Uprising · Dec 13, 2014

This weather blows. Yes, it feels great outside.....but not for the 13th of December!

This is spring weather.....or October.....

12 days from Christmas....and it's shorts and t-shirt weather.

Doesn't feel like the holiday season outside.

redefined · Dec 13, 2014

Yeah I really love this weather but I feel very idiotic wearing sweaters to all these Christmas parties.

VanityHalfBlack · Dec 13, 2014

Yeah, definitely not Christmas. It still feels like October.

Buck Turgidson · Dec 13, 2014

Uprising said: ↑

This weather blows. Yes, it feels great outside.....but not for the 13th of December!

This is spring weather.....or October.....

12 days from Christmas....and it's shorts and t-shirt weather.

Doesn't feel like the holiday season outside.
Click to expand...

In 2 months you'll be b****ing about the cold, in 7 months you'll be b****ing about the heat.

davidio840 · Dec 13, 2014

We have had some beautiful weather lately and it sure doesn't feel like the holidays. That is for sure. However, we are only 13 days into the Winter so we have a long way to go. I can almost be certain things will change drastically around or just after Christmas.

The teleconnection indices are strongly suggesting we are going to see a significant change for the colder, and possibly wetter, towards the end of this month and into the New Year. January and February are our coldest months of the year. It would be nice to actually need some pants and a jacket during Christmas though!

tmacfor35 · Dec 13, 2014

Uprising said: ↑

This weather blows. Yes, it feels great outside.....but not for the 13th of December!

This is spring weather.....or October.....

12 days from Christmas....and it's shorts and t-shirt weather.

Doesn't feel like the holiday season outside.
Click to expand...

Speak for yourself. :grin:

Fishing has been great above average the last few months because of the weather!

Uprising · Dec 13, 2014

Buck Turgidson said: ↑

In 2 months you'll be b****ing about the cold, in 7 months you'll be b****ing about the heat.
Click to expand...

Nope, I love the cold.

I grew up in Saudi Arabia.....and am from Houston. I want all the cold I can get.

Now, this weather is beautiful.....but not for the 3rd week of December.

MadMax · Dec 13, 2014

I ain't even mad.

I was outside virtually all day today. Loved it.

Mr. Clutch · Dec 13, 2014

Global warming

davidio840 · Dec 23, 2014

This is about a week away. Shows a significant Ice storm for our area around the end of the month/early new year. Take this with a grain of salt but models have been hinting at this for a few days now and if they keep doing it then it will be more worrisome around new years eve.

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[2014-2015] Texas Winter Thread

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[2014-2015] Texas Winter Thread

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