Rockets Sign Kostas Papanikolaou

BleedRocketsRed · Aug 9, 2014

CantGoLeft said: ↑

I've said all along he shouldn't have been chasing those guys. He should've been finding replacements for Asik and Lin and building the bench.
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....and accept mediocrity? That isn't the goal here.

saleem · Aug 9, 2014

LandryFields said: ↑

Marion is someone people know that has actually played in the NBA for over 10 years and is proven to be a very good defender and role player. KP might have potential to be better than that but that's as guaranteed as the second year of his contract
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Don't you think DM contacted Marion first? The Rockets were trying to sign Kostas with the BAE, which didn't work out. I feel that they signed him after Marion told them, he didn't want to come to Houston.

REEKO_HTOWN · Aug 9, 2014

saleem said: ↑

Don't you think DM contacted Marion first? The Rockets were trying to sign Kostas with the BAE, which didn't work out. I feel that they signed him after Marion told them, he didn't want to come to Houston.
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Really? Marion is only getting vet min offers. Maybe, just maybe Morey doesn't want him. He's old and slow.

J.R. · Aug 9, 2014

JD88 said: ↑

Only thing he'll ever amount to is trade bait.
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Makes sense.

Can't flip a 39 year old Ray Allen (on a one year deal)
Probably can't flip Shawn Marion

So you go all in on Kostas.

Can't sign you if you can't be traded!

saleem · Aug 9, 2014

REEKO_HTOWN said: ↑

Really? Marion is only getting vet min offers. Maybe, just maybe Morey doesn't want him. He's old and slow.
Click to expand...

Perhaps, yes. Marion may also be looking for another championship, and he isn't going to get it in Houston.

Akkuron · Aug 9, 2014

CantGoLeft said: ↑

So $4.8 mil for a defensive specialist. Seems like a hail mary pass by Morey. He's basically putting his job in the hands of this guy.
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You think Morey's job depends in any way, shape or form on Papanikolaou?

Deuce · Aug 9, 2014

Fantastic post! Great info on those scenarios.

HI Mana said: ↑

It is obviously going to depend on the structure of that second year, but if it is truly a team option + non-guaranteed, the CBA possibilities are quite interesting.

Bima touched on this before, but the Rockets are really in a great spot with Papanikolau next year no matter what he ends up being. Flexibility doesn't win you games, but inflexibility can cost you dearly.

Here are all the potential ways that this could play out next year.

Scenario 1: The Blazers crater, LaMarcus Aldridge decides to come to the Rockets, and they need cap room to sign him. The Rockets pick up his team option prior to free-agency, then cut him to clear the room when Aldridge commits (and not a Bosh commit, but a Howard commit).

Scenario 2: Papanikolau plays like the actual T-Mac of Greece, leading the Rockets to a championship. His 2nd-year option is obviously picked up, and he'll still be a restricted free agent after it expires. No worries about the Gilbert Arenas rule; since he'll actually be worth the max salary in the 3rd and 4th years and will obviously be worth matching.

The probability of either of these things happening are obviously so small as to likely not figure into expected value, but they are possibilities.

Scenario 3: Papanikolau struggles, and is used as a trade salary filler. Right now the Rockets have a dearth of tradable contracts; Ariza/Howard/Harden aren't going anywhere, the Lin TE is probably best saved for next summer, and everyone else makes the minimum. Papanikolau is a walking trade exception that can be aggregated; by his lonesome he can bring in a guy making $7.2M; aggregate him together with Motiejunas and 3 or 4 minimum guys and you can nearly reach the Rookie max (~$15M) for a juicy RFA sign-and trade that wouldn't require the other team to take on lots of dead salary; usually the sticking point of sign and trades.

Scenario 4: Papanikolau plays ok, and shows flashes of potential. The Rockets can decline his team option and make him a restricted free-agent. Since he would only have one year with Houston, the Rockets would only have the Non-Bird exception available to sign him. Normally, this would mean that they would have to dip into the MLE to resign him or to match an offer sheet. However, in this case, because his rookie contract salary is so high, they can instead use the Non-Bird exception to start his deal anywhere up to a $6M first year salary, up to the mid-level. While we're all bitter about how Parsons ended up working out, remember that allowing early restricted free agency worked out extremely well in getting Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Troy Daniels on value contracts (still a steal, in my opinion; the Rockets basically added on an extra guaranteed year at the near minimum, secured full bird rights and still retained restricted free agency rights, at a cost of around $400k over two years with no player option. You want to talk about sacrificing for the team, that was it.) Doing it this way basically lets the team take a free look at Papanikolau this year, and then resign him to an appropriate amount in a longer term deal next year, while preserving the full MLE in a year where they will look to sign Llull, Gentile, 3 second rounders and further fill out the bench.

It will be interesting to see when the guarantee date for Papanikolau's second year is; paradoxically it's likely the Rockets will only pick up the option if he's either amazing or awful. Anything in between and it would make more sense for them to decline the option and use the leverage of restricted free agency to renegotiate a new contract.

The odds that Papanikolau is good, or even worth the $4.8M are very low. You'd have to imagine the odds of him never playing a meaningful minute are up around 95%. But it's once again proving that Les Alexander is willing to spend the money to make calculated gambles.
Click to expand...

Remon · Aug 9, 2014

Anyone interested, Greece is playing against France in a friendly match.

http://www.fibalivestats.com/matches/3886/12/39/88/11D7hiAp5RNJM/

It should be easy to find a stream.

Ericonomist · Aug 9, 2014

Kostas is having a good game. 19 minutes, 3 for 3, 9 points

BimaThug · Aug 9, 2014

HI Mana said: ↑

It is obviously going to depend on the structure of that second year, but if it is truly a team option + non-guaranteed, the CBA possibilities are quite interesting.

Bima touched on this before, but the Rockets are really in a great spot with Papanikolau next year no matter what he ends up being. Flexibility doesn't win you games, but inflexibility can cost you dearly.

Here are all the potential ways that this could play out next year.

Scenario 1: The Blazers crater, LaMarcus Aldridge decides to come to the Rockets, and they need cap room to sign him. The Rockets pick up his team option prior to free-agency, then cut him to clear the room when Aldridge commits (and not a Bosh commit, but a Howard commit).

Scenario 2: Papanikolau plays like the actual T-Mac of Greece, leading the Rockets to a championship. His 2nd-year option is obviously picked up, and he'll still be a restricted free agent after it expires. No worries about the Gilbert Arenas rule; since he'll actually be worth the max salary in the 3rd and 4th years and will obviously be worth matching.

The probability of either of these things happening are obviously so small as to likely not figure into expected value, but they are possibilities.

Scenario 3: Papanikolau struggles, and is used as a trade salary filler. Right now the Rockets have a dearth of tradable contracts; Ariza/Howard/Harden aren't going anywhere, the Lin TE is probably best saved for next summer, and everyone else makes the minimum. Papanikolau is a walking trade exception that can be aggregated; by his lonesome he can bring in a guy making $7.2M; aggregate him together with Motiejunas and 3 or 4 minimum guys and you can nearly reach the Rookie max (~$15M) for a juicy RFA sign-and trade that wouldn't require the other team to take on lots of dead salary; usually the sticking point of sign and trades.

Scenario 4: Papanikolau plays ok, and shows flashes of potential. The Rockets can decline his team option and make him a restricted free-agent. Since he would only have one year with Houston, the Rockets would only have the Non-Bird exception available to sign him. Normally, this would mean that they would have to dip into the MLE to resign him or to match an offer sheet. However, in this case, because his rookie contract salary is so high, they can instead use the Non-Bird exception to start his deal anywhere up to a $6M first year salary, up to the mid-level. While we're all bitter about how Parsons ended up working out, remember that allowing early restricted free agency worked out extremely well in getting Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Troy Daniels on value contracts (still a steal, in my opinion; the Rockets basically added on an extra guaranteed year at the near minimum, secured full bird rights and still retained restricted free agency rights, at a cost of around $400k over two years with no player option. You want to talk about sacrificing for the team, that was it.) Doing it this way basically lets the team take a free look at Papanikolau this year, and then resign him to an appropriate amount in a longer term deal next year, while preserving the full MLE in a year where they will look to sign Llull, Gentile, 3 second rounders and further fill out the bench.

It will be interesting to see when the guarantee date for Papanikolau's second year is; paradoxically it's likely the Rockets will only pick up the option if he's either amazing or awful. Anything in between and it would make more sense for them to decline the option and use the leverage of restricted free agency to renegotiate a new contract.

The odds that Papanikolau is good, or even worth the $4.8M are very low. You'd have to imagine the odds of him never playing a meaningful minute are up around 95%. But it's once again proving that Les Alexander is willing to spend the money to make calculated gambles.
Click to expand...

Great post, HI Mana.

However, I don't think the Rockets will have much leverage on Papanikolaou in restricted free agency due to the sheer size of his qualifying offer.

In order to make Papanikolaou a restricted free agent next summer, the Rockets must extend him a qualifying offer of nearly $6 million (being 125% of his prior year's salary).

If the Rockets' goal is to use restricted free agency as a ploy to get Kostas to agree to a longer-term deal at a substantially lower salary (i.e., $2-3 million per year for four years), Papanikolaou can just call their bluff and accept his $6 million qualifying offer. He'd get a fat one-year contract (and in the process become a One-Year Bird player, able to veto any trade involving him), then take his chances all over again in 2016.

While I like the flexibility of this contract, I have serious reservations about the Rockets being able to leverage restricted free agency in their favor against Papanikolaou.

CheukLau · Aug 9, 2014

J.R. said: ↑

Makes sense.

Can't flip a 39 year old Ray Allen (on a one year deal)
Probably can't flip Shawn Marion

So you go all in on Kostas.

Can't sign you if you can't be traded!
Click to expand...

Shawn likely is looking for a long term guaranteed contract. This will make him less attractive on the trade table.

Houst0ne · Aug 9, 2014

77 rating on 2k...82 3pt Rating...good enough for me lol

FeaR · Aug 9, 2014

18 Points for Papanikolaou against France, 2/4 from three.

solodolo · Aug 9, 2014

FeaR said: ↑

18 Points for Papanikolaou against France, 2/4 from three.
Click to expand...

FeaR · Aug 9, 2014

FeaR said: ↑

18 Points for Papanikolaou against France, 2/4 from three.
Click to expand...

sorry, 2/3 from three.

desi tmac91 · Aug 9, 2014

Don't like structure of this deal at all. If he's any good, I imagine he's gone.

FeaR · Aug 9, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Kostas Papanikolaou on Greek TV for <a href="https://twitter.com/HoustonRockets">@HoustonRockets</a> "A dream comes true, but I have to keep that on the side, because of the NT" (1/2)</p>— Eurohoops.net (@Eurohoopsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurohoopsnet/statuses/498187552973922304">August 9, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"I will speak about it when it's time. I just have to say that I feel blessed and I want to thank my family for their support" (2/2)</p>— Eurohoops.net (@Eurohoopsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Eurohoopsnet/statuses/498187746947923968">August 9, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

RYAN3053 · Aug 9, 2014

After watching Paps' highlight video, I thoroughly enjoy his 3 point stroke over "he who shall not be named" frozen rope of a shot. I cringed every single time (that other guy) shot, even the ones he made.

mollamar · Aug 9, 2014

RV6 said: ↑

This is why he's not another Boki

You can see him literally banging his way down in the post in one of the videos. Boki was never that kind of player.
Click to expand...

Another lefty. Morey loves these guys:

Dragic, Bosh, KMartin, Harden. I'm forgetting a few.

YaBoy · Aug 9, 2014

mollamar said: ↑

Another lefty. Morey loves these guys:

Dragic, Bosh, KMartin, Harden. I'm forgetting a few.
Click to expand...

K Martin?

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Rockets Sign Kostas Papanikolaou

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