This has nothing to do with anything, but I read this morning that we have now spent more "soft" money rebuilding Afghanistan than we did on the Marshall Plan post WWII (105 billion vs. 104 in adjusted dollars). I thought that was slightly mindblowingly ludicrous.
We will eventually destroy this planet, we are very selfish people and we tend to be very polarized. We've had peace because there has only been one superpower called the United States of America. In the next 30 years America will lose this power to China most likely. No great power has ever gone down peacefully so I expect major battles to occur in proxy wars. With our population to hit 10 billion by 2050, the fight for resources is going to get even more ferocious. The US has opened the door through Iraq and Iraq as an era of powers unwillingness to respect the sovereignty and self-determination of nations. Russia with Ukraine is doing the same, and now with Israel doing what it wants with Gaza is another sign that countries are getting more bold. More countries are going to realize that having nuclear weapons gives you the power to play with different rules. Therefore, these countries without WMD are going to do whatever it takes to get it. Not only for offense, but for defense as well. Eventually given how power hungry everyone is, someone is going to use these weapons. There is no doubt that WWIII will happen. ITs a matter of time, I expect it to happen within the next 50 years. History is never wrong, we are animals and have always been violent, we are not going to become peaceful creatures.
I think yes, it's inevitable. I think it could happen one of three ways. A nuke gets detonated in the US or Israel and all hell breaks loose. The second possibility comes with the progression of mechanized/drone warfare. I think unfortunately we're more likely to have war when the human toll is diminished. Third type of war would be over resources.
Regional conflicts over resources, orchestrated in large part by superpowers behind the scenes, is more likely than all-out world war. Actually, it's been going on like this for decades.
People will think that it won't happen because of technology and all the different implications of that stopping all out global war. But at the same time it is inevitable that over time some type of global catastrophe will arise, either being a singular event or a group of events coalescing into chaos. One thing I could see happening in the near future is the Chinese people revolting over the environment in that country. As the internet becomes more ingrained into society they will organize at some point and topple the government. I could see some type of organized army going into isreal. A nuclear or large biological attack on NYC or DC. A Muslim assassinating the president. Natural resources won't be a problem, but they will be for our grandchildren. The Utah Jazz winning winning four championships in a row. I could go on and on.
The primary issue is that Corporations run the world now. They are international. People don't care enough to fight world wars in that. . it might interrupt next season's Real HouseWives of crap Rocket River Aldus was right
Everything you bring up is a distinct possibility but if I can give some hope to humanity is with a global economy the great powers are more interdependent than ever and the fear of both economic and military catastrophe might keep them from fighting. For example the Russian rebels in Ukraine appear to be heading towards defeat. If Russia was so determined then why aren't they pouring in more support to keep the rebels going? It's possible that the mixture of sanctions and negative opinion regarding the downing of Malaysia Air might be making Putin reconsider how important Eastern Ukraine is to Russia's future as compared to being a major player in the Global economy.
I think the more likely thing will be an era of (more) proxy wars, with the West, Russia and China supporting their own pawns in wars in the 3rd world. In that scenario, the powers will be left mostly unscathed while the rest of the world is ravaged, and the division between haves and have-nots is increased. If there is a hegemonic war between the US and ascendant powers like China, I think the other countries will stay out of it. It's too costly for someone like Australia to ally one way or the other -- they could just get creamed pretty quickly without contributing much positive for victory. It's not like WWII, where they could send troops to the battlefield and put little besides their soldiers in harm's way. Only Japan could reach them back then, and they'd have to send their bombers a long way to do so. Nowadays, someone like Australia can get riddled with ICBMs if the deterrent is removed. So only major powers would commit to such a war and they'd take the great majority of the damage (which is why it's not likely to happen).
I think a world war is possible sometime in the future, but I don't think it will be fought with atomic weapons. Just as I sagely pointed out in ATW's interesting thread speculating on a comparison between the Israeli/Hamas conflict currently winding down, and the mass bombing by both sides of civilians during the last world war (only to have the idea dismissed out of hand by some character who's name I have forgotten), the Axis and the Allies both had large quantities of poison gas before and during WWII, yet didn't use those weapons of mass destruction. That's what I see happening during the next world war, if we have one. The threat of atomic war will prevent the great powers from using those weapons. Yes, a small nuclear device set off in a city somewhere by a terrorist group, or a rogue state, is disturbingly likely at some point, but I don't believe we will ever see the balloon go up on an all out atomic war.
Ironically enough the World Wars were made far more feasible by advances in technology, transport and communication. One could surmise for some that was the impetus for engaging in the war at all. And by some I mean literally only the Germans, I don't think any one society went so thoroughly bat**** crazy all at once just to fully repeat it a few years later.
Increasing the divide between the have and have not, food shortage, water shortage, land loss, destroying the ways of life for millions, displacing large population.... The US military is concern about nations (and we are talking about China, India as the one most impacted first) destabilizing due to climate change. That seems to me much more likely cause of regional wars throughout the globe that can unite or divide groups and spread.
You can relax about China- It will never be a leading super power. It can be strong, but it will always follow someone (maybe the re-born Russia thanks to Puttin and Obama), they are not innovating, they follow and copy, and its financial growth is not as near as high as it should have been by now, it actually almost stopped. Water and resources are a major concern and countries that can be self sustained will be on the rise as nations will fold more and more towards themselves. borders will become more and more fragile as the immigration from Africa will continue to increase, and the nation state idea will be challenged with some countries collapsing into smaller groups of people with same ideology and believes. The world order will not be destroyed, it will just change its shape like it has done through out history. or maybe not
